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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off

And trades, check it out here

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After The Veil Of QE Is Lifted…

December 13th, 2014 · No Comments

  • There are many critics of QE, and indeed it does have limited real effects and produces some risks.
  • However, now that the veil of QE is being lifted, what is revealed is a rather ugly world in which a host of deflationary forces conspire to take definite root.
  • The US has, for now, managed to escape the most severe effects of these, but we wonder for how long, and other areas in the world economy are already perilously.

After The Veil Of QE Is Lifted… | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Monetary policy

Deflation, Rather Than Inflation Was Always The Bigger Risk

December 13th, 2014 · No Comments

  • In 2010, a host of people wrote an open letter to the Fed warning against the inflationary risks of unconventional monetary policy.
  • Recently it turned out that none of these signatories repented.
  • We’ll argue that they got their risk assessment inside-out and explain why deflation was always the much bigger risk.

To The Fed’s Critics: Deflation, Rather Than Inflation Was Always The Bigger Risk | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Monetary policy

Europe Is Coming Apart

December 11th, 2014 · No Comments

  • While it seemed like the ECB had saved the eurozone from imploding a few years ago with Draghi’s “whatever it takes,” underneath, tensions have remained.
  • While there are some small pockets of improvements (Ireland), mostly, the situation has kept deteriorating- in Italy and France, but also in Germany itself.
  • This isn’t a surprise. Just like in the 1930s, a currency union is simply too constraining for it to work.
  • Ultimately, the choice is for Germany, whether they accept the things necessary to give the euro at least a chance, things that go deeply against their economic beliefs.
  • Or they should leave the euro. If they keep dithering more, markets or people in the streets will make the choice for them, that ain’t going to be pretty.

Europe Is Coming Apart | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Eurocrisis

Falling Oil Price And Energy Stocks

December 11th, 2014 · No Comments

  • Falling oil prices have decimated energy stocks.
  • For some, like those producing shale oil, this seems warranted as lower oil price is a direct threat to the viability of many.
  • But the selloff in alternative energy names, equally violent, provides an opportunity.

Falling Oil Price And Energy Stocks | Seeking Alpha

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Secular Stagnation In… Germany?

December 7th, 2014 · No Comments

  • Germany has been held up by many as an economic success story and a recipe for others to follow.
  • But the success is faltering of late, producing a raft of bad economic figures.
  • A closer look at what’s going on reveals that even doing all the right things doesn’t guarantee escape from the forces of secular stagnation, quite the contrary.

Secular Stagnation In… Germany? | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Germany · Secular Stagnation

Cenveo Share Price Slide Isn’t Warranted

December 7th, 2014 · No Comments

  • Shares in Cenveo slid lower from $3.80 in July to $2.40 now, almost in a straight decline, taking the shares into deeply oversold levels.
  • We couldn’t find many reasons for that, Q2 figures were somewhat disappointing, but these were marred by a host of one-offs.
  • Management is convinced they’re still on track to make full year guidance and they seem to have a reasonable case. The steep sell-off is unwarranted if these expectations materialize.

Cenveo Share Price Slide Isn’t Warranted – Cenveo, Inc. (NYSE:CVO) | Seeking Alpha

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Germany’s Eurozone Recipe

December 4th, 2014 · Comments Off

  • Germany has been the lone economic success story in the eurozone, but should other eurozone countries follow the German model?
  • It’s invariably argued that the German success is based on fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
  • As usual, the real picture is a good deal more complex.

Germany’s Eurozone Recipe | Seeking Alpha

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To Raise Or Not To Raise…

December 4th, 2014 · Comments Off

  • A primer on the arguments pro and contra tightening monetary policy.
  • Those who are in favor fear asset bubbles, rising wages and want to protect income from savers.
  • Those who are against argue that rising rates risks the recovery, inflation is low, rates would be low in the absence of Fed expansionary policies and there is still considerable.

To Raise Or Not To Raise… | Seeking Alpha

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Monetary Madness

December 1st, 2014 · Comments Off

  • The blitz most of the central banks in advanced nations have unleashed on the world is actually the least effective, and the most risky, way to stimulate economies.
  • Its main transmission channel is to stuff money into banks in order to entice households to borrow more at exactly the time when they’re least likely to respond.
  • There has to be a better way.

Monetary Madness | Seeking Alpha

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Bill Fleckenstein Does Misunderstand Monetary Policy

December 1st, 2014 · Comments Off

  • Notable Fed critic and hedge fund manager Bill Fleckenstein sticks to his gums.
  • But Fleckenstein’s position depends on a prediction that hasn’t yet materialized.
  • So we think CNBC’s Futures Now host Jackie DeAngelis asked a few poignant questions, questions which Fleckenstein hasn’t really answered.

Bill Fleckenstein Does Misunderstand Monetary Policy | Seeking Alpha

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