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September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio
Comments Off on New Model PortfolioTags: Model Portfolio
April 21st, 2016 · No Comments
April 4th, 2016 · Comments Off on Capitalism is grinding to a halt
February 21st, 2016 · Comments Off on The Fear Of Fears | Seeking Alpha
- The year started with an unprecedented selloff in the financial markets.
- Plenty of reasons have been offered for this, from oil, to China, to global recession fears, to a Fed prematurely tightening, expensive valuations, etc.
- There is something to be said for many of these, but we think behind this lies a much bigger fear.
- This is the fear that we’ve been able only to postpone the wave of deflation, possibly leading to debt-deflationary cycle but that we’re now standing defenseless.
Comments Off on The Fear Of Fears | Seeking AlphaTags: The Markets
February 11th, 2016 · Comments Off on February 2016
We have to say, things are looking very bleak:
- Debt levels are too high almost everywhere.
- This matters especially where (public or private) debt isn’t denominated in the home currency, like much private debt in emerging markets or public debt in the eurozone.
- China is slowing down busting up commodity and oil exporting emerging markets
- China itself is plagued by unsustainable capital outflows and will be forced to devalue if this continues, throwing another round of deflation into the world economy.
- The oil crash hasn’t turned out to be a boon for the world economy as the negative effects have such dire consequences on many producers that it looks likely this is overwhelming the positives
- The eurozone is under enormous strains, the euro is already rising again as the outlook for US rate rises softens, and stress is emerging in banks and public debt levels are unsustainable under the present low inflation/ low growth scenario, let alone if that worsens.
- The eurozone is already cracking up under the political strain caused by the refugee crisis and there is a wild card in the form of the UK referendum on Brexit.
- It is almost generally perceived as the world’s authorities are basically left with little or no policy instruments to fight all this if it gets worse.
Source: February 2016
Comments Off on February 2016Tags: The Markets
February 11th, 2016 · Comments Off on The Keynesian Crash? | Seeking Alpha
- Stockmarkets tumbled almost everywhere in the first couple of weeks of the year, and some predict they will crash.
- This is blamed on Keynesian economics, in the name of which debt levels were bloated and inordinate amounts of money printed.
- We’re not so pessimistic and we’ll try to show that there is much wrong with this analysis, and Keynesianism is much less to blame for the excesses.
February 7th, 2016 · Comments Off on A Primer On China And The Markets | Seeking Alpha
- The turmoil in the markets is, not surprisingly, matched by a wide variety of perspectives.
- We provide some of the main optimists who argue this is a normal correction. The pessimists think it is something deeper, and the über bears foresee a crash.
- Those that predict a crash see widespread debt deleveraging and resulting deflation, much of it coming from China. The central banks are powerless to stem the tide as they exhausted.
February 3rd, 2016 · Comments Off on Where is the Gas/Water Contact and the Elusive Western Fault?
So, yes the engineers that do the reserve determination will use all of the data available. Seismic, gravity, logs, cores, flow tests etc. I would not say they will “average” the methods but that they will give what they consider to be the proper weight to each technique in determining their final number. I guess this is why there is such a wide spread between the companies that have given previous estimates.
About the only good news that I can think of is that most of the data obtained since GLJ gave their first estimate in 2009 has been positive.
- Wells have mostly come in higher than anticipate making the reservoir thicker.
- The good porosity rock has been better than expected in the last two wells, Antelope-4 ST-1 and Antelope-5.
- Antelope-3 was also a great well that was drilled since 2009.
- Now they think the western fault is further to the west making the area of the field larger.
- The results from Antelope-4 and Antelope-5 indicated that the gas/water contact may be lower than presently being used.
- The flow tests at Antelope-5 have shown how great the deliverability is with 60+ MMCFD and a drawdown of only 2 psi.
- And of course the minimum reservoir pressure loss (0.06 – 0.08 psi) during the first flow test which produced 152.9 MMCF is a positive indication.
One would think the present resource number should be larger than GLJ got in 2009 before they got all of this additional positive data.
Comments Off on Where is the Gas/Water Contact and the Elusive Western Fault?Tags: IOC
February 1st, 2016 · Comments Off on February 2016
It turns out, over 93% of investors lost money in January. Our portfolio is part of the other 7%..
Source: February 2016
Comments Off on February 2016Tags: Portfolio
January 28th, 2016 · Comments Off on January 2016
This is what we argued yesterday
Look at the Amazon earnings and earnings expectations (click the attachment):
You see that from Q4 2015 onwards, there is a marked acceleration expected. This is, of course, largely based on the profitability of AWS, Amazon Web Services.
But before we’ll buy, we like to have some confirmation that this is indeed happening to the extent expected. Q4 results (tomorrow after close) really are the deviding line..
Source: January 2016
Luckily we didn’t buy, big earnings miss today..
Comments Off on January 2016Tags: Uncategorized
January 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking Alpha
- Until now, the US economy recovered fairly briskly from the financial crisis, with solid private sector growth.
- The US recovery is much better than in most other areas of the world economy.
- But there is one area where the US lags, and that is wages.
- But US wages have been stagnant for decades, and this turns out to be a surprisingly US problem only.
Comments Off on A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking AlphaTags: Economics