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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off

And trades, check it out here

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The Portable InterOil

March 4th, 2015 · No Comments

  • InterOil, like most oil and gas companies, suffered from the fall in oil price.
  • But unless energy prices stay low for a decade or so, which we think is unlikely, there is little reason for that.
  • The next year will be decisive for InterOil’s LNG plans, most notably because of the recertification of its Elk/Antelope resource which underpins it.
  • If that confirms earlier certification, a major hurdle will be taken, setting the company up for a virtuous cycle of discoveries and monetization of its unique acreage.

The Portable InterOil – InterOil Corporation (NYSE:IOC) | Seeking Alpha

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There is no Recovery!

March 4th, 2015 · No Comments

  • The explosion in the economic blog sphere is a mixed blessing, some blogs seem to be able to create something almost like an alternative reality.
  • Simple data and textbook economics, the tools of our trade, is enough to separate most hype from reality.
  • Like those arguing there is no economic recovery.
  • Investment decisions based on hype can be spectacularly wrong.

There Is No Recovery! | Seeking Alpha

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Serving 2 Masters At A Time?

February 14th, 2015 · Comments Off

  • Monetary policy cannot serve both economic stability and financial stability at the same time.
  • The use of monetary policy to achieve financial stability is a blunt instrument, producing widespread collateral damage in the economy. Monetary policy should be aimed at economic stability.
  • In order to achieve financial stability, new instruments are needed, here we discuss the advantages, risks, and drawbacks of these macro-prudential tools.

Serving 2 Masters At A Time? | Seeking Alpha

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We Actually Do Know What Works

February 14th, 2015 · Comments Off

  • There is much frettening about what are often called unprecedented expansionary policies.
  • While these policies do have risks and drawbacks, historical evidence strongly suggests that they work under conditions similar to what many economies experienced in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Conceptually, it’s also not terribly difficult to explain why these policies work, large private sector deleveraging creates a large shortfall in demand which has a tendency to feed on itself.

We Actually Do Know What Works | Seeking Alpha

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The Japanese Endgame

February 10th, 2015 · Comments Off

  • Some argue Abeconomics has already failed. Others argue it will end in hyperinflation, or in a massive capital flight, or a bond market crash, or all of the above.
  • Others argue that Japan won’t reach the escape velocity needed to bring its debt situation under control.
  • While we can’t discard these risks entirely, we think that a large yen depreciation could create the necessary growth in nominal GDP to drag Japan back from the brink.
  • Since that is the path on which they seem to be going, there are also some investment opportunities here.

The Japanese Endgame | Seeking Alpha

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A Russian Default?

February 10th, 2015 · Comments Off

  • It’s no secret that Russia is plagued by the crash in the oil price and Western sanctions, but there are also a host of structural economic problems.
  • If the present conditions endure or worsen, there is a reasonable chance that Russia will default on part of its foreign debt, mostly in the hands of private companies.
  • Despite being cheap, Russian stocks generally don’t seem a good bet. Not only because of the present problems, but also because of deep seated structural problems in the economy

A Russian Default? | Seeking Alpha

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Where Else Will You Go With Your Money?

February 2nd, 2015 · Comments Off

  • We analyze some mechanisms producing a slow shift of fund from the real economy to the financial economy.
  • This shift is very beneficial for shareholders in the short and perhaps medium term, where else are you going to go with your money?
  • But in the longer-term, this model has distinct disadvantages.

Where Else Will You Go With Your Money? | Seeking Alpha

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Solar And Oil Are Only Marginally Related

February 2nd, 2015 · Comments Off

  • The sell-off in solar stocks has accelerated in recent months, although there are few signs of any imminent slow down in the solar market.
  • Most observers relate this sell-off to the fall in oil price.
  • We investigate possible links between the oil price and solar stock performance and see little of substance.

Solar And Oil Are Only Marginally Related | Seeking Alpha

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Intrusion Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Ratio

January 24th, 2015 · Comments Off

  • The cyber security market represents a big growth opportunity for a small player like Intrusion, especially for its new Savant product dealing with advanced persistent threats.
  • In the previous quarter, Savant beat a big competitor for an order, and the customer enthusiasm has led their big reseller to greatly expand sales efforts.
  • While this has not yet led to a dramatic increase in sales, the opportunity is certainly there. The risk are rather manageable, with the company being in good financial health.

Intrusion Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Ratio – Intrusion, Inc. | Seeking Alpha

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Sunny Side Up?

January 24th, 2015 · Comments Off

  • Markets have shrugged off the October fall and exploded higher to set new records daily.
  • But equity valuations are stretched providing the dry timber that only needs igniting.
  • Sparks could fly to set fire to valuations from a host of situations, including the eurozone, Russia, and Ukraine.

Sunny Side Up? | Seeking Alpha

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