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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio

And trades, check it out here

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For Finisar And Others, The Optical Network Selloff Seems To Be Largely Optical

April 23rd, 2017 · No Comments

  • A big selloff in optical networking stocks doesn’t seem to be based on hard facts.
  • It mostly seems related to unconfirmed concerns about a China slowdown, but this seems a matter of timing, the demand is still likely to materialize.
  • Meanwhile, some of the companies, like Finisar, have been slaughtered too briskly, ignoring cheap valuations and booming opportunities.

For Finisar And Others, The Optical Network Selloff Seems To Be Largely Optical

→ No CommentsTags: FNSR

The Great Unwinding

April 23rd, 2017 · No Comments

  • The Fed (and other central banks) has amassed a great amount of assets, bloating its balance sheet.
  • The Fed has started signaling to the markets that it is considering starting to unwind some of this.
  • How did the Fed get here and what are the risks of this unwinding of its bloated balance sheet? We’ll investigate.

The Great Unwinding | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Monetary policy

Play The Chinese Steel Cycle With ArcelorMittal

April 19th, 2017 · No Comments

  • The steel sector is plagued by price swings that are to a great extent produced by China, alternating acceleration and slowdown of demand.
  • While it’s difficult to get the timing exactly right these cycles are tradable.
  • Longer-term, though, we continue to be firm on ArcelorMittal; the uptrend is still intact.

Play The Chinese Steel Cycle With ArcelorMittal

→ No CommentsTags: MT

Is Amazon Cornering Yet Another Platform?

April 19th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Amazon seems to be on an inexorable rising path.
  • The main reason for this is that management keeps relentlessly focused on the long-term building technologies and platforms that can be leveraged.
  • With the development of voice control devices, AMZN seems to have developed yet another platform with substantial leverage.

Is Amazon Cornering Yet Another Platform?

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What Will Keep The Rally Going?

April 18th, 2017 · No Comments

  • The market rally has stalled on diminished outlook for a Trump reflation and a surprising softening in US economic data.
  • It’s understandable, given the length of the rally and the stretched valuations.
  • But it’s difficult to see any clear catalyst propelling stocks higher in the near future, this is more a market for stock pickers and sector rotation.
  • And there is actually a small, but non-negligible risk for a US recession.

What Will Keep The Rally Going? | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: The Markets

Destiny Media Is Like A Late-Stage Biotech Company, But One With Limited Downside

April 17th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Destiny Media has a stable core in the form of a profitable product that is growing again, limiting the downside to the stock price.
  • They have another product in development which addresses a much bigger market, but this is not yet good enough and needs further work.
  • Given the limited downside and considerable upside, what is important is reaching proof of concept, showing that the product is good enough to sell.
  • We are getting more optimistic that the company will be able to pull that off, as they’ve done this already for one segment.
  • Therefore, the way to see this company is as a fairly late stage biotech company with limited downside.

Destiny Media Is Like A Late-Stage Biotech Company, But One With Limited Downside

→ No CommentsTags: DSNY

Lumentum Sell-Off… Should You Buy?

April 17th, 2017 · No Comments

  • The optical network sector has given up a substantial part of its gains in short order.
  • But the pre-release of Applied Optoelectronics should allay some fears.
  • In the second half of the year, there are multiple tailwinds which should lift most of these stocks.
  • However, the sector is not without some structural problems, and there are unexpected and difficult-to-explain valuation differences between its two biggest companies.

Lumentum Sell-Off… Should You Buy?

→ No CommentsTags: FNSR · LITE

Cypress Vs. Synaptics: What Company Wins From Apple’s Upcoming iPhones?

April 15th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Getting a slot in an upcoming blockbuster like the new iPhones can be a big boost to small suppliers like Cypress and Synaptics.
  • We look at the chances for both companies, and it turns out that there are also some risks involved.
  • But these risks don’t seem to be evenly distributed over these companies.

Cypress Vs. Synaptics: What Company Wins From Apple’s Upcoming iPhones?

→ No CommentsTags: CY · SYNA

United Airlines: The Structure Behind The PR Disaster

April 14th, 2017 · No Comments

  • The United Continental ‘reaccomodation’ of a passenger is a symptom of a deeper structural deficit in the industry.
  • The structure pits passengers against shareholders and the first tend to loose out too much, as there are insufficient forces to keep airlines in check in reducing customer comfort.
  • Another result of this is that United shares will not suffer much (if any), unless an Asian boycott takes hold.

United Airlines: The Structure Behind The PR Disaster

→ No CommentsTags: Corporate governance

Market Relief: Trump Turns Out To Be A Mainstream Republican

April 14th, 2017 · No Comments

  • While we still await details and legislative proposals of the big Trump reflation, markets do have something to celebrate from the White House.
  • There is increasing data subscribing the view that, while perhaps not in rhetoric, Trump’s policies are fairly mainstream Republican policies.
  • Most notable seems the gradual shift away from protectionism and hard money. This is good news for the markets.

Market Relief: Trump Turns Out To Be A Mainstream Republican | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: The Markets · Trump