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September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio
Comments Off on New Model PortfolioTags: Model Portfolio
June 29th, 2015 · No Comments
- In some corners, “money printing” is like the original sin, it’s blamed for all economic problems and language tends to go into overdrive.
- Closer inspection reveals that behind much of the strong language there is surprisingly weak economics.
- A cooler assessment reveals that QE is neither a miracle cure, nor the mother of all economic ills. Under some circumstances it is a mildly useful tool, during others it’s not.
June 29th, 2015 · No Comments
- While the dollar is rallying strongly, some Austrian economist keep on predicting a dollar crash.
- That dollar crash not happening isn’t the only empirical problem with these kind of economic approaches.
- When economic approaches can’t explain significant parts of the world, one should take their predictions with some pinch of salt.
June 14th, 2015 · Comments Off on The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last
- Because of the wide differences of positions between Greece and its creditors, positions are hardened by the respective electorates, which provide little room for maneuvre.
- Therefore, any outcome of the negotiations will likely be a fudge that allows both parties to save face and face less wrath of their electorates.
- However, a fudge is dangerous in itself to improve the Greek economy; clarity is needed to take away the uncertainty.
- The room for a fudge seems fairly small, and there are plenty of banana peels on the way that could derail the whole process into an accidental Grexit.
- A Grexit itself is likely to be a catastrophe, and isn’t priced in at all.
Comments Off on The Stalemate In Greece Cannot LastTags: Eurocrisis
May 31st, 2015 · Comments Off on ‘The U.S. Is Broke’ | Seeking Alpha
- From time to time, we hear deeply serious economists expound that the US is broke.
- Invariably, this involves discounting future entitlement obligations to present day dollars, which usually deliver intimidatingly large sums scaring the uninitiated.
- The curious thing is, if the US is broke, somebody should tell US bond market investors, as rates should rise dramatically if the ‘broke’ analysis is right.
- A less dramatic look at the issues shows that the markets have it right. The US is far from broke.
Comments Off on ‘The U.S. Is Broke’ | Seeking AlphaTags: Public sector deficits and debts
May 24th, 2015 · Comments Off on The Great Wage Moderation, A Primer | Seeking Alpha
- While employment creation is back to normal and unemployment has fallen to levels at which wage inflation tends to pick up, there is no sign of the latter happening.
- This great wage moderation, while actually not a new phenomenon, is still confounding macro-economists as well as the Fed’s monetary policy making.
- We’ll look at some of the likely causes.
Comments Off on The Great Wage Moderation, A Primer | Seeking AlphaTags: Economics
May 24th, 2015 · Comments Off on Yes, Greece Can Be Saved Within The Euro
- Greece’s membership of the eurozone seems to be an endless source of problems and crisis.
- However, significant lessons can be drawn from the experience to date, which can serve as imput for designing a rational economic reform package for Greece.
- Such a package should, in principle, be able to restore Greek growth, which should be the overriding aim of all involved.
- This would suffice to calm the markets and keep Greece within the euro.
Comments Off on Yes, Greece Can Be Saved Within The EuroTags: Eurocrisis
May 19th, 2015 · Comments Off on Goldman Sachs on Oil
Predicting problems until the end of the decade.. [Read more →]
Comments Off on Goldman Sachs on OilTags: Oil
May 9th, 2015 · Comments Off on Greece, Democracy And The Euro Constraints
- While there is some tailwind from the economy which lessen some of the economic contradictions of the eurozone, the political contradictions are still every bit as manifest.
- One of these is the result of the lack of a big central budget that automatically and stealthily redistributes funds from surplus to deficit countries.
- It’s replacement are very visible, and hence politicized bailouts create adverse political dynamics that can implode at any time.
Comments Off on Greece, Democracy And The Euro ConstraintsTags: Eurocrisis
May 9th, 2015 · Comments Off on Cenveo Still A Buy
- 2014 was not a good year for our investment thesis in Cenveo, which depends on something of a virtuous cycle of operational improvements and deleverage to ensue.
- However, this is mostly due to one-off factors.
- Without a mishap, the coming years look to be better, especially if the company manages to engage in asset sales and/or cheaper refinancing, the chances for both seem reasonable to us.
Comments Off on Cenveo Still A BuyTags: CVO
April 27th, 2015 · Comments Off on A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking Alpha
- In the financial world, often Japan running long-term public deficits is viewed as highly irresponsible while balancing the books is seen as responsible.
- In reality, this really all depends on the particular circumstances.
- We compare two extreme cases, Greece and Japan, and show that under certain circumstances, running large deficits is actually less irresponsible as excessive austerity.
Comments Off on A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking AlphaTags: Public sector deficits and debts