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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio

And trades, check it out here

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‘QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come’ | Seeking Alpha

June 29th, 2015 · No Comments

  • In some corners, “money printing” is like the original sin, it’s blamed for all economic problems and language tends to go into overdrive.
  • Closer inspection reveals that behind much of the strong language there is surprisingly weak economics.
  • A cooler assessment reveals that QE is neither a miracle cure, nor the mother of all economic ills. Under some circumstances it is a mildly useful tool, during others it’s not.

Source: ‘QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come’ | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Monetary policy

Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong

June 29th, 2015 · No Comments

  • While the dollar is rallying strongly, some Austrian economist keep on predicting a dollar crash.
  • That dollar crash not happening isn’t the only empirical problem with these kind of economic approaches.
  • When economic approaches can’t explain significant parts of the world, one should take their predictions with some pinch of salt.

Source: Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong

→ No CommentsTags: currencies

The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last

June 14th, 2015 · Comments Off on The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last

  • Because of the wide differences of positions between Greece and its creditors, positions are hardened by the respective electorates, which provide little room for maneuvre.
  • Therefore, any outcome of the negotiations will likely be a fudge that allows both parties to save face and face less wrath of their electorates.
  • However, a fudge is dangerous in itself to improve the Greek economy; clarity is needed to take away the uncertainty.
  • The room for a fudge seems fairly small, and there are plenty of banana peels on the way that could derail the whole process into an accidental Grexit.
  • A Grexit itself is likely to be a catastrophe, and isn’t priced in at all.
 The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on The Stalemate In Greece Cannot LastTags: Eurocrisis

‘The U.S. Is Broke’ | Seeking Alpha

May 31st, 2015 · Comments Off on ‘The U.S. Is Broke’ | Seeking Alpha

  • From time to time, we hear deeply serious economists expound that the US is broke.
  • Invariably, this involves discounting future entitlement obligations to present day dollars, which usually deliver intimidatingly large sums scaring the uninitiated.
  • The curious thing is, if the US is broke, somebody should tell US bond market investors, as rates should rise dramatically if the ‘broke’ analysis is right.
  • A less dramatic look at the issues shows that the markets have it right. The US is far from broke.

‘The U.S. Is Broke’ | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on ‘The U.S. Is Broke’ | Seeking AlphaTags: Public sector deficits and debts

The Great Wage Moderation, A Primer | Seeking Alpha

May 24th, 2015 · Comments Off on The Great Wage Moderation, A Primer | Seeking Alpha

  • While employment creation is back to normal and unemployment has fallen to levels at which wage inflation tends to pick up, there is no sign of the latter happening.
  • This great wage moderation, while actually not a new phenomenon, is still confounding macro-economists as well as the Fed’s monetary policy making.
  • We’ll look at some of the likely causes.

The Great Wage Moderation, A Primer

Comments Off on The Great Wage Moderation, A Primer | Seeking AlphaTags: Economics

Yes, Greece Can Be Saved Within The Euro

May 24th, 2015 · Comments Off on Yes, Greece Can Be Saved Within The Euro

  • Greece’s membership of the eurozone seems to be an endless source of problems and crisis.
  • However, significant lessons can be drawn from the experience to date, which can serve as imput for designing a rational economic reform package for Greece.
  • Such a package should, in principle, be able to restore Greek growth, which should be the overriding aim of all involved.
  • This would suffice to calm the markets and keep Greece within the euro.

Yes, Greece Can Be Saved Within The Euro

Comments Off on Yes, Greece Can Be Saved Within The EuroTags: Eurocrisis

Goldman Sachs on Oil

May 19th, 2015 · Comments Off on Goldman Sachs on Oil

Predicting problems until the end of the decade.. [Read more →]

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Greece, Democracy And The Euro Constraints

May 9th, 2015 · Comments Off on Greece, Democracy And The Euro Constraints

  • While there is some tailwind from the economy which lessen some of the economic contradictions of the eurozone, the political contradictions are still every bit as manifest.
  • One of these is the result of the lack of a big central budget that automatically and stealthily redistributes funds from surplus to deficit countries.
  • It’s replacement are very visible, and hence politicized bailouts create adverse political dynamics that can implode at any time.

Greece, Democracy And The Euro Constraints | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on Greece, Democracy And The Euro ConstraintsTags: Eurocrisis

Cenveo Still A Buy

May 9th, 2015 · Comments Off on Cenveo Still A Buy

  • 2014 was not a good year for our investment thesis in Cenveo, which depends on something of a virtuous cycle of operational improvements and deleverage to ensue.
  • However, this is mostly due to one-off factors.
  • Without a mishap, the coming years look to be better, especially if the company manages to engage in asset sales and/or cheaper refinancing, the chances for both seem reasonable to us.

Cenveo Still A Buy – Cenveo, Inc. (NYSE:CVO) | Seeking Alpha

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A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking Alpha

April 27th, 2015 · Comments Off on A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking Alpha

  • In the financial world, often Japan running long-term public deficits is viewed as highly irresponsible while balancing the books is seen as responsible.
  • In reality, this really all depends on the particular circumstances.
  • We compare two extreme cases, Greece and Japan, and show that under certain circumstances, running large deficits is actually less irresponsible as excessive austerity.

A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking AlphaTags: Public sector deficits and debts