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September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio
Comments Off on New Model PortfolioTags: Model Portfolio
May 19th, 2015 · No Comments
Predicting problems until the end of the decade.. [Read more →]
May 9th, 2015 · No Comments
- While there is some tailwind from the economy which lessen some of the economic contradictions of the eurozone, the political contradictions are still every bit as manifest.
- One of these is the result of the lack of a big central budget that automatically and stealthily redistributes funds from surplus to deficit countries.
- It’s replacement are very visible, and hence politicized bailouts create adverse political dynamics that can implode at any time.
May 9th, 2015 · No Comments
- 2014 was not a good year for our investment thesis in Cenveo, which depends on something of a virtuous cycle of operational improvements and deleverage to ensue.
- However, this is mostly due to one-off factors.
- Without a mishap, the coming years look to be better, especially if the company manages to engage in asset sales and/or cheaper refinancing, the chances for both seem reasonable to us.
April 27th, 2015 · Comments Off on A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking Alpha
- In the financial world, often Japan running long-term public deficits is viewed as highly irresponsible while balancing the books is seen as responsible.
- In reality, this really all depends on the particular circumstances.
- We compare two extreme cases, Greece and Japan, and show that under certain circumstances, running large deficits is actually less irresponsible as excessive austerity.
Comments Off on A Tale Of Two Debts: Japan Vs. Greece | Seeking AlphaTags: Public sector deficits and debts
April 27th, 2015 · Comments Off on A Big Financial Sector Hurts Economic Growth | Seeking Alpha
- There is a remarkable correlation between the size of the financial sector and the rate of productivity growth.
- According to the BIS, there is causation, a bigger financial sector tends to have a negative impact on real economic growth.
- So the growing size of the financial sector provides another possible explanation for ‘secular stagnation.’.
Comments Off on A Big Financial Sector Hurts Economic Growth | Seeking AlphaTags: Financial regulation
April 25th, 2015 · Comments Off on Liquid Natural Gas Market To Crash With Oil? | Seeking Alpha
- The sudden oversupply has crashed the oil price. Since LNG pricing is tied to oil in the biggest LNG markets, this has potentially serious ramifications in that market as well.
- If present prices persist, many, perhaps most of the proposed new LNG plants will be unprofitable so many will not be build.
- However, underlying LNG demand is much stronger compared to oil so sooner or later this will turn into a supply shortage of LNG.
Comments Off on Liquid Natural Gas Market To Crash With Oil? | Seeking AlphaTags: Natural Gas
April 25th, 2015 · Comments Off on Intrusion Requires Patience – Intrusion, Inc. | Seeking Alpha
- Intrusion has a stable, revenue generating internet security product and a new innovative one, Savant, which could set the company on a new growth path.
- There are signs of this catching on, mostly due to a big client win over significant competition a few quarters ago.
- But progress is disappointing as the company and its big reseller are still figuring out the best way to market Savant.
Comments Off on Intrusion Requires Patience – Intrusion, Inc. | Seeking AlphaTags: INTZ
April 18th, 2015 · Comments Off on OPEC Can’t Kill American Shale
- OPEC is supposedly out to beat, or at least curtail the growth of American shale oil production.
- For a host of reasons, especially the much shorter capex cycle for shale, they will not succeed unless they are willing to accept permanent low oil prices.
- But, permanent low oil prices will do too much damage to OPEC economies for this to be a credible threat.
Comments Off on OPEC Can’t Kill American ShaleTags: Oil
April 18th, 2015 · Comments Off on American Shale Is The New Swing Producer
- The North American shale oil revolution played a large part in the oversupply and crash of the oil market.
- Specialists vary widely in their predictions of where oil is headed next.
- We argue that with an increased role for shale production, the underlying market dynamics are altered and the oil price swings will be less violent in the future.
Comments Off on American Shale Is The New Swing ProducerTags: Oil
April 7th, 2015 · Comments Off on The Coming Oil Shock?
- The cutback in exploration and even production, and the increase in demand as a result of the oil price crash will work slowly to rebalance the market, at a considerable.
- Some even argue that the cutbacks will pave the way for much higher prices down the road.
- The reality is, short-term almost all adjustment works through the price, quantities only adjust slowly, producing wild and sudden swings in the oil price in reaction to shocks.
- But the underlying trend for the oil price is up, and it’s more important battles lie elsewhere, no matter how spectacular these swings are.