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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio

And trades, check it out here

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Dow 40,000!

May 20th, 2017 · No Comments

  • A pundit argues that the S&P can double in five years, or sooner; we kick the tires of the reasoning behind this.
  • One part of the argument seems actually reasonable – the flattened and elongated business cycle – although even then we think his prediction is a stretch.
  • It’s the second part of the reasoning with which we have the most problems. For starters, it contradicts the first part.

Dow 40,000 | Seeking Alpha

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It’s That China Slowdown Again, But Acacia Communications Will Come Back Stronger

May 15th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Another optical network company has fallen by the wayside on a China slowdown.
  • Acacia’s fall has been exaggerated by a secondary offering, a large dependence on China and an unusually high customer concentration.
  • But we see little reason not to expect substantial growth to return to this former high-growth company, so we think the shares are a buy here.

It’s That China Slowdown Again, But Acacia Communications Will Come Back Stronger

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The Break-Out At Ctrip Is Going To Last

May 15th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Ctrip, the Chinese online travel giant, has finally broken out of its trading range.
  • And with good reason, revenues are still increasing at a very fast rate and margins are improving as a result of that and the market consolidation.
  • Ctrip is the market leader and the most obvious way to play the Chinese tourism boom.
  • But the company is not only expanding domestically to third and fourth tier cities, it also has big opportunities abroad.

The Break-Out At Ctrip Is Going To Last

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Micron, Western: DRAM, NAND Prices To Continue Higher, Says Macquarie – Barron’s

May 14th, 2017 · No Comments

Worries that the market for DRAM and NAND chips will cool this year are flawed, writes Daniel Kim with Macquarie Research. He thinks prices will keep rising because supply will remain tight and Apple and other manufacturers have no other choice but to pay up to build their wares. That may be good for Micron and Western Digital and Samsung, among others.

Source: Micron, Western: DRAM, NAND Prices To Continue Higher, Says Macquarie – Barron’s

Uptrend for Micron and Western Digital still intact, or so it seems.

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Shopify Shares Go Parabolic, This Cannot Continue

May 14th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Shopify is a fast growing company, but its share price is growing much faster.
  • There was already almost an order of magnitude between the two growth rates the last four months.
  • But rather than a slow-down, the share price is actually accelerating, going parabolic.
  • We simply argue that something will have to give sooner rather than later.

Shopify Shares Go Parabolic, This Cannot Continue – Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) | Seeking Alpha

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Masimo Is A Terrific Company, But The Stock Is Fully Valued

May 14th, 2017 · No Comments

  • Masimo has unique products that set the company up for a continuation of years of steady growth.
  • However, the share price has grown much faster than the underlying growth, and something had to give.
  • Even after the sell-off, the shares trade at a pretty firm multiple, so we see limited immediate upside.

Masimo Is A Terrific Company, But The Stock Is Fully Valued

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Should You Bet On A French Tony Blair?

May 14th, 2017 · No Comments

  • The French elected a sensible reformer for President, considering the alternatives that is the best outcome for the economy and stocks.
  • Macron was elected on an explicit reform platform, he should have a mandate. But the French have a history of balking at reforms.
  • Reforming the French economy will be a long haul, with considerable risks and banana peels on the way.
  • Much upside is already priced in the stock market, we would wait a little before buying and see for instance what Parliament Macron will face.

Should You Bet On A French Tony Blair?

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Ubiquiti Networks: Taking On Corporate And Consumer Markets

May 12th, 2017 · Comments Off on Ubiquiti Networks: Taking On Corporate And Consumer Markets

  • After entering the service provider and small business market, Ubiquiti is now gearing up for taking on the enterprise and consumer markets.
  • Given the successful history of the previous market conquests, we wouldn’t bet against Ubiquiti, even if there are many that do.
  • But both these markets have different requirements so it won’t be plain sailing and they are incurring significant startup cost.

Ubiquiti Networks: Taking On Corporate And Consumer Markets

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Applied Optoelectronics: Optical Network Woes? What Optical Network Woes?

May 9th, 2017 · Comments Off on Applied Optoelectronics: Optical Network Woes? What Optical Network Woes?

  • Here is another optical networking company that has escaped the concerns about a slowing demand from China.
  • In fact, their business is booming and they’re selling all they can and building out capacity as fast as they can.
  • We think this is a wave that has considerable mileage left.

Applied Optoelectronics: Optical Network Woes? What Optical Network Woes?

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How To Survive The Optical Networking Shakeout

May 8th, 2017 · Comments Off on How To Survive The Optical Networking Shakeout

  • One way to escape the shakeout is demonstrated by Lumentum, which looks like having won Apple as a customer for a new big market opportunity, 3D Sensing.
  • The shares rallied on this likelihood, despite a disappointing third quarter and disturbingly soft fourth-quarter guidance.
  • Is most of the good news priced in?

How To Survive The Optical Networking Shakeout

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