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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio

And trades, check it out here

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There Is A Bear Case For Applied Optoelectronics But We Can’t See Much Of It

August 21st, 2017 · No Comments

  • Applied Optoelectronics is a battleground stock with the shorts getting a boost by a surprise softness in Q3 guidance from the company.
  • When parsing the competing narratives, we see little in the Q3 softness for the shorts to rejoice.
  • More specifically, we don’t see any reason for AAOI doing much worse in 100G as it is already doing very well in 100G at the moment.
  • Perhaps the best short case is for the industry to overbuild capacity for 100G and beyond. While that scenario can’t be totally excluded, so far this isn’t happening and demand in 100G is booming.
  • Even then the company is likely to stand out as a cost leader.

Source: There Is A Bear Case For Applied Optoelectronics But We Can’t See Much Of It – Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: AAOI

Universal Display Will Grow Into Its Valuation

August 21st, 2017 · No Comments

  • A financially very sound market leader facing expanding markets which are in the first innings of development.
  • But the shares are already reflecting most, if not all, of the near future growth.
  • And longer term, the company is not entirely without risk as it’s not totally impossible that competing technology could eventually match it on some and exceed on other metrics.

Source: Universal Display Will Grow Into Its Valuation – Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:OLED) | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: DATA

Tableau Software Steps On The Accelerator

August 11th, 2017 · No Comments

  • We didn’t see a long case for Tableau, but others clearly do.
  • Re-evaluating the situation, we do see the growth and the operational leverage.
  • However, we still don’t see a path to profitability.

Source: Tableau Software Steps On The Accelerator – Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: DATA

The Next Eurozone Battle Is Shaping Up

August 11th, 2017 · No Comments

  • The structural design deficiencies in the eurozone have been papered over by the cyclical tailwinds in the economy and balming ECB action.
  • But at the first sight of headwinds, these will reassert themselves with a vengeance.
  • Remedial action is already very difficult as it involves a leap forward in European integration for which there is no electorate.
  • But things are even more complex as there are two very different narratives ruling the eurozone.

Source: The Next Eurozone Battle Is Shaping Up | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: Eurocrisis

Cognex Is A Terrific Company But Already Fully Valued

August 11th, 2017 · No Comments

  • A well managed company growing solidly with a history of exceeding expectations, often by quite some margin.
  • Management has a keen eye for opportunities, whether these are new segments, applications or acquiring new capabilities.
  • The company is financially very sound as well, producing lots of free cash flow and having $700M+ in net cash on the balance.
  • But you’ll have to pay for all this excellence; the shares are anything but cheap.

Source: Cognex Is A Terrific Company But Already Fully Valued – Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) | Seeking Alpha

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Silicon Motion Technology Is A Buy

August 5th, 2017 · Comments Off on Silicon Motion Technology Is A Buy

  • The company has been battered by a shortage of NAND flash and price increases that compress its margins, but these are temporary headwinds.
  • Unless the company has the timing of the Q4 recovery terribly wrong this is almost a no-brainer.
  • The company is well positioned and when the supply issues are resolved, it can ride a wave of new adoption of NAND flash in various sectors.
  • The shares are cheap.
  • Also, management has just approved a $200M share buyback program and expressed intention to buy for their own accounts as well.

Source: Silicon Motion Technology Is A Buy – Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ:SIMO) | Seeking Alpha

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The Dollar Is Sick

August 5th, 2017 · Comments Off on The Dollar Is Sick

  • The dollar has fallen surprising fast against the euro, and the end of that doesn’t seem in sight just yet.
  • The timing and speed of the fall is at least in part curious from an economic point of view as interest rates and bond yields still favor the US.
  • We can’t exclude a modicum of political risk premium creeping into the dollar and out of the euro.

Source: The Dollar Is Sick | Seeking Alpha

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KLA-Tencor Is Firing On All Cylinders

August 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on KLA-Tencor Is Firing On All Cylinders

  • The company is firing on all cylinders, its markets are growing, margins are expanding and it is gaining market share.
  • The company also produces an astounding amount of free cash flow.
  • There is still some upside in the shares, as they’re not expensive.

Source: KLA-Tencor Is Firing On All Cylinders – KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC) | Seeking Alpha

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Viavi Should Improve From Here

August 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on Viavi Should Improve From Here

  • The company is going through a temporary decline in its main markets.
  • But it is restructuring, decreasing opex by $35M a year, and when growth returns, it should emerge healthier.
  • On top of that, it has a considerable opportunity in 3D sensing filters.

Source: Viavi Should Improve From Here – Viavi Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAV) | Seeking Alpha

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Ellie Mae’s Quarterly Miss, An Inflection Point?

August 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on Ellie Mae’s Quarterly Miss, An Inflection Point?

  • The danger for expensive growth stocks is always an earnings miss, especially when accompanied by a considerable guidance reduction.
  • This is exactly what happened to Ellie Mae, and the recovery from this won’t be easy or fast.
  • One positive factoid, seats are still increasing, at least part of the underlying growth mechanics are still there.

Source: Ellie Mae’s Quarterly Miss, An Inflection Point? – Ellie Mae, Inc. (NYSEMKT:ELLI) | Seeking Alpha

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