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New Model Portfolio

September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio

And trades, check it out here

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A Primer On China And The Markets | Seeking Alpha

February 7th, 2016 · No Comments

  • The turmoil in the markets is, not surprisingly, matched by a wide variety of perspectives.
  • We provide some of the main optimists who argue this is a normal correction. The pessimists think it is something deeper, and the über bears foresee a crash.
  • Those that predict a crash see widespread debt deleveraging and resulting deflation, much of it coming from China. The central banks are powerless to stem the tide as they exhausted.

Source: A Primer On China And The Markets | Seeking Alpha

→ No CommentsTags: China · The Markets

Where is the Gas/Water Contact and the Elusive Western Fault?

February 3rd, 2016 · No Comments

So, yes the engineers that do the reserve determination will use all of  the data available. Seismic, gravity, logs, cores, flow tests etc. I would not say they will “average” the methods but that they will give what they consider to be the proper weight to each technique in determining their final number. I guess this is why there is such a wide spread between the companies that have given previous estimates.

About the only good news that I can think of is that most of the data obtained since GLJ gave their first estimate in 2009 has been positive.

  • Wells have mostly come in higher than anticipate making the reservoir thicker.
  • The good porosity rock has been better than expected in the last two wells, Antelope-4 ST-1 and Antelope-5.
  • Antelope-3 was also a great well that was drilled since 2009.
  • Now they think the western fault is further to the west making the area of the field larger.
  • The results from Antelope-4 and Antelope-5 indicated that the gas/water contact may be lower than presently being used.
  • The flow tests at Antelope-5 have shown how great the deliverability is with 60+ MMCFD and a drawdown of only 2 psi.
  • And of course the minimum reservoir pressure loss (0.06 – 0.08 psi) during the first flow test which produced 152.9 MMCF is a positive indication.

One would think the present resource number should be larger than GLJ got in 2009 before they got all of this additional positive data.

Source: Where is the Gas/Water Contact and the Elusive Western Fault?

→ No CommentsTags: IOC

February 2016

February 1st, 2016 · No Comments

It turns out, over 93% of investors lost money in January. Our portfolio is part of the other 7%..

Source: February 2016

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January 2016

January 28th, 2016 · No Comments

This is what we argued yesterday

Look at the Amazon earnings and earnings expectations (click the attachment):

You see that from Q4 2015 onwards, there is a marked acceleration expected. This is, of course, largely based on the profitability of AWS, Amazon Web Services.

But before we’ll buy, we like to have some confirmation that this is indeed happening to the extent expected. Q4 results (tomorrow after close) really are the deviding line..

Source: January 2016

Luckily we didn’t buy, big earnings miss today..

→ No CommentsTags: Uncategorized

A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking Alpha

January 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking Alpha

  • Until now, the US economy recovered fairly briskly from the financial crisis, with solid private sector growth.
  • The US recovery is much better than in most other areas of the world economy.
  • But there is one area where the US lags, and that is wages.
  • But US wages have been stagnant for decades, and this turns out to be a surprisingly US problem only.

Source: A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking AlphaTags: Economics

How To Navigate These Dangerous Markets | Seeking Alpha

January 24th, 2016 · Comments Off on How To Navigate These Dangerous Markets | Seeking Alpha

  • The markets are extremely dangerous territory right now.
  • It is all about China: The risks of a substantial yuan devaluation are considerable, but not necessarily imminent.
  • This means that the risks are large, but medium-term. We provide some pointers regarding what to look out for as you navigate the markets.

Source: How To Navigate These Dangerous Markets | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on How To Navigate These Dangerous Markets | Seeking AlphaTags: China · The Markets

Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

January 23rd, 2016 · Comments Off on Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

  • There is still a substantial minority of people who argue that the US never really left the 2008 recession.
  • They do not believe official data and argue that unemployment is much higher than the official figures.
  • We’ll take a dispassionate look at this and portray the development of the labor market with the development of multiple indicators.

Source: Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking AlphaTags: Economics

Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

January 22nd, 2016 · Comments Off on Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

  • There is still a substantial minority of people who argue that the US never really left the 2008 recession.
  • They do not believe official data and argue that unemployment is much higher than the official figures.
  • We’ll take a dispassionate look at this and portray the development of the labor market with the development of multiple indicators.

Source: Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking AlphaTags: Economics

It’s A Bear Market Already! | Seeking Alpha

January 21st, 2016 · Comments Off on It’s A Bear Market Already! | Seeking Alpha

  • Most stocks are in a bear market already, given that the US indices were held up by a few very large gains of some titans like Amazon and Netflix.
  • Earnings are moving downwards on average, although mostly due to energy and materials.
  • The quality of earnings also leaves much to be desired.
  • Yet this is all about China, but even if China devalues substantially this won’t repeat 2008, we feel.

Source: It’s A Bear Market Already! | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on It’s A Bear Market Already! | Seeking AlphaTags: The Markets

The China Crisis Is Real And Dangerous | Seeking Alpha

January 20th, 2016 · Comments Off on The China Crisis Is Real And Dangerous | Seeking Alpha

  • China poses the biggest risk for the world economy.
  • The country is struggling to contain strong capital outflows.
  • As a result, the yuan and Chinese forex reserves are falling, raising the odds of a self-fulfilling prophesy of a substantial devaluation that would wreck havoc on the world economy.

Source: The China Crisis Is Real And Dangerous | Seeking Alpha

Comments Off on The China Crisis Is Real And Dangerous | Seeking AlphaTags: China · The Markets