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September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio
Comments Off on New Model PortfolioTags: Model Portfolio
July 18th, 2016 · No Comments
- SunPower’s shares have halved since the beginning of the year.
- But a couple of weaker quarters isn’t necessarily a big concern due to the volatility of quarterly figures.
- Apart from pricing in the power plant sector, we see little in terms of long-term trends turning unfavorable, and we think the shares will come back in the second half.
July 18th, 2016 · No Comments
- Driven by an angry electorate sensing the secular stagnation, Trump’s economic agenda basically amounts to a hostile takeover of the Republican Party.
- This is good insofar as much of the electorate doesn’t believe in trickle-down economics, and rightly so.
- But there remain considerable economic risks attached to Trump’s economic platform on trade, immigration, and the bond markets.
July 10th, 2016 · Comments Off on ArcelorMittal Is A Buy
- The steel market is stabilizing.
- ArcelorMittal will still produce positive free cash flow this year, despite the difficult market.
- While timing a cyclical stock is always difficult, one does not have to get it exactly right to produce substantial gains.
Comments Off on ArcelorMittal Is A BuyTags: MT
July 10th, 2016 · Comments Off on Dual Risk Out Of China
- The largely state-owned industrial sector is plagued by overcapacity, large debt, deflation and declining credit quality.
- The Chinese authorities have three ways of dealing with this, restructuring, devaluation, or stimulus.
- They seem to have chosen the path of least resistance; while this is good news in the very short run, it only increases the risks in the near future.
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June 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on Is Japan Caught In A Public Debt Trap?
- So far, the Japanese economy has escaped the bursting of asset bubbles 3x the size of those in the US without suffering a depression or double digit unemployment.
- The price they paid for that is the ratcheting up of the public debt/GDP ratio, which at 250% looms as a serious threat over Japan and the world economy.
- Is there an escape possible out of this now that Abeconomics has not lifted nominal GDP growth in a decisive way and not broke deflationary expectations?
Comments Off on Is Japan Caught In A Public Debt Trap?Tags: Japan
June 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on Skechers Is Oversold And Cheap
- Skechers still seems to pay a heavy price for an earnings miss two quarters ago.
- Much of that was due to one-time factors and currency headwinds.
- The stock is oversold, an inch above a major support level, and cheap. We think most of any possible bad news is already priced in and see a favorable risk-reward.
Comments Off on Skechers Is Oversold And CheapTags: SKX
June 19th, 2016 · Comments Off on The U.S. Needs A Supply Revolution
- An increased regulatory burden is often blamed for the slowdown of US growth and decreasing economic dynamism.
- Much of this is simply the result of an increasing complexity of modern economic life.
- However, that doesn’t mean there are no problems with regulation, especially where they seem to favor large incumbents in markets who use the regulatory process to keep others out.
June 19th, 2016 · Comments Off on Secular Profit Rise, Cyclical Profit Downturn
- There has been a substantial shift of income from wages to profits.
- This has been an important part of secular stagnation and has been a drag on economic growth.
- Cyclical forces are now consipring to reverse at least some of this, which is good news for the economy, but less so for investors.
Comments Off on Secular Profit Rise, Cyclical Profit DownturnTags: Solar sector
June 5th, 2016 · Comments Off on It Is Actually Surprisingly Easy To Cure Secular Stagnation
- Secular stagnation means lower growth produced by excess savings over investment.
- We think the main source for this savings glut is the corporate world, which sitting on record amounts of cash and enjoys record profitability.
- Rather than investing, these profits are either accumulated or dealt out to executives and shareholders, adding to the savings glut.
- There is a fairly simple solution available, it’s actually staring us in the face.
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June 5th, 2016 · Comments Off on Time To Fire Up Japanese Helicopters
- Japan hasn’t been able to break the debt-deflationary cycle that has plagued its economy for over two decades.
- Monetary policy isn’t likely to achieve it either.
- It’s time for bolder experiments, a fiscal package directly financed by the central bank.
- While not without risk, the risk of doing nothing shouldn’t be underestimated either.
Comments Off on Time To Fire Up Japanese HelicoptersTags: Japan