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September 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on New Model Portfolio
Comments Off on New Model PortfolioTags: Model Portfolio
November 20th, 2015 · No Comments
- China aims at transforming the economy towards more domestic consumption and moving up the value chain.
- At the same time, China is trying to deflate a housing and credit bubble, while trying to maintain rapid economic growth.
- And all the while it is faced by structural problems like an unsustainable investment boom, a demographic crisis and rapidly losing competitiveness.
- While Chinese markets have exploded higher despite these problems, there are still some opportunities left, riding the waves of the economic change.
November 20th, 2015 · No Comments
- Corporate buybacks have become one of the main drivers of stock prices and there is evidence to suggest they work.
- While it’s likely to be good for stock prices, many would prefer more of corporate earnings to go into the real economy by companies investing in their future.
- Some blame the Fed for the buyback bonanza, but we take strong issue with this.
Source: Buyback Nation
November 3rd, 2015 · Comments Off on Ctrip: The Unstoppable Cannonball Finally Hitting Through The Unbreakable Wall?
- Chinese tourism is growing at twice the rate of GDP and within the industry, Ctrip is gaining significant market share.
- Still, that unstoppable cannonball has kept hitting an unmovable wall.
- Because of intense competition and heavy investments, profits have been meager.
- But increasing returns, network effects and industry consolidation are about to change this, we think.
Comments Off on Ctrip: The Unstoppable Cannonball Finally Hitting Through The Unbreakable Wall?Tags: CTPR
November 3rd, 2015 · Comments Off on Has OPEC Gone Mad?
- OPEC’s strategy to force a dramatic retreat of American shale isn’t succeeding anywhere near the scale needed for the strategy to be called a success.
- The cost to OPEC itself is too big for this strategy to be continued. Steep revenue losses, severe budgetairy problems, foreign currency losses, political instability and rift within OPEC itself.
- Other casualties have emerged in the form of expensive oil exploration (deep sea, tarsands, Arctic, etc.) and an increase in oil demand offers some compensation.
- However, expensive oil is facing an onslaught already from alternative energy and climate change regulation, OPEC has no need to slay this dragon.
Source: Has OPEC Gone Mad?
Comments Off on Has OPEC Gone Mad?Tags: Oil
October 14th, 2015 · Comments Off on Goldman’s Oil At $50 By 2020? | Seeking Alpha
- Goldman Sachs argues that oil will stay low for the rest of the decade but predictions are tough, few if any saw the oil crash coming.
- The main argument from Goldman is about the resilience of the US shale sector.
- This is indeed remarkable, the number of rigs has halved, but production has stayed up.
- A substantial part of that is due to temporary factors and with less new wells, the decline rate of existing wells will make themselves felt sooner or later.
October 14th, 2015 · Comments Off on When A Country Doesn’t Trust Its Own Currency
- Argentina’s financial markets are on a tear, which might seem odd considering the basket case label often attached to it in the financial press.
- However, a closer look will reveal that Argentina’s economic problems are mostly rather benign and fairly easily solvable.
- A change in government is expected to do just that and give the country a fresh start.
September 9th, 2015 · Comments Off on Madalena Energy Sits In The Sweet Spot Of Massive Shale Resources
- Argentinean shale compares well with anything in the world, and development is still in relative infancy – there is a long learning curve ahead.
- The unconventional resources are key in Argentina’s energy policy, and dependence on foreign expertise and capital is large, so the investment climate for energy can’t be that bad.
- Madalena is the only small independent with positions in key unconventional Argentinean resources; it is debt-free, generates substantial operational cash flow and has a rapidly increasing production and resource.
Comments Off on Madalena Energy Sits In The Sweet Spot Of Massive Shale ResourcesTags: MVN
September 9th, 2015 · Comments Off on Amateur Hour In China?
- China’s stock market frenzy has multiple signs of a bubble, as fundamentals are worsening and new inexperienced investors plunge in with abandon.
- It’s liquidity driven, mostly because of much lack of alternatives and in expectation of further easing of policy.
- The rally could continue for some time, but certain sectors are getting really overvalued.
Source: Amateur Hour In China?
Comments Off on Amateur Hour In China?Tags: China
September 6th, 2015 · Comments Off on Is There Any Upside Left For U.S. Stocks?
- Stocks have had a fantastic run, but valuations are stretched.
- The bull run has been fueled by a number of forces, but on closer inspection, most of these are struggling.
- So it’s difficult to see what will provide the catalyst for the next runup in stocks.
Comments Off on Is There Any Upside Left For U.S. Stocks? Tags: The Markets
September 6th, 2015 · Comments Off on Ellie Mae Is Due For A Breather
- A terrific company with a terrific stock performance.
- However, the shares are rather expensive and they have run up quite a lot, while earnings are not expected to do better this year than the previous one.
- We therefore see little immediate upside and think they could be due for a breather.
Source: Ellie Mae Is Due For A Breather
Comments Off on Ellie Mae Is Due For A BreatherTags: ELLI