Trina Solar is at a really crucial level. We’ve been here before. This support better holds.
We’ve actually taken the two year chart here, so you can look at it’s entire listing history. Some observations:
- We’re now at the lowest levels since TSL shares were introduced in the US 1.5 years ago
- We have been at these levels only once since, in March this year
- In that 1.5 years, Trina’s top and bottom line have grown in excess of 200%, so it’s hardly the same company as it was just 1.5 years ago
- With an expected earnings per share this year in excess of $3, doubling 2007 earnings per share one can only call this company cheap, it’s p/e is below 10, which is pretty ridiculous for such a fast growing company
- Stock markets look into the future, but we would say that most possible mishaps will be priced in
- We would feel more comfortable wholeheartedly telling you to buy at these levels if they hadn’t botched the convertibles though. The unfortunate thing is that management can hardly be blamed for not seeing these kind of prices for their shares, but it’s perception that counts here. And the perception is that they could (and in many views should) have done the financing at a lot higher levels
- It’s not a terrible disaster, it creates a little over 1M shares more (compared to financing at, say, $50).
- The risk is another downward lurch in oil and/or the general market. If these behave, we think these levels will hold. If not, we could go another 20% lower or so. We will watch it carefully.