We were a bit lucky with are almost exact call of the oil price peak, but our underlying arguments were pretty straightforward. The same arguments will lead us to expect that oil will resume upwards.
When? Well, when economies recover. Calling the oil top was based on noting that oil prices were so high it was affecting behaviour in rich countries, especially the US (people started to drive less, buy less cars, etc.).
Now, oil demand from developing countries did not flinch, as in many of them there are subsidies in place which keeps oil cheap for final demand, making it insensitive to price changes in the world market.
And now, it turns out that the US economy is growing surprisingly briskly, based on exports and the tax rebate stimulus. Whether that last is another matter, but we noticed something else:
- Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Corp.’s U.S. dealers are reporting that a decline in pickup-truck sales may be “bottoming out” and that some demand is returning for large sport-utility vehicles, Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said.
- Dealers are seeing “some resurgence in demand for full-size SUVs and pickups,” Lutz told reporters today in Joliet, Illinois, for a test drive of some of the Detroit-based automaker’s 2009 models.
- A revival of consumer interest in the large trucks might help GM stem its 18 percent slide in U.S. sales this year through July. The biggest U.S. automaker is trying to rebuild sales this month with the return of prices usually available to only employees and cash discounts on most 2008 and some 2009 models. Those incentives run through Sept. 2.
- “The auto industry is the smallest in been in years in terms of sales” and the U.S. economy is “lackluster,” Lutz said. “Nobody is quite sure when it’s going to turn around.”
- GM gained 10 cents to $10.30 at 2:34 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares fell 59 percent this year before today.
So, oil prices take a breather and the rush goes once again out for those SUV’s and trucks. Do they ever learn?? This way, it can only end in tears.