We mainly follow Trina Solar (TSL) here, and the sell-off has been so brutal on the back of the energy correction, but we think at the minimum, a trading opportunity arises.
We have a couple of arguments for a rebound:
- The growth and revenue stories coming out of the solar sector (like FSLR, TSL, STP, LDK in particular) were good to spectacular, indicating the sector is growing above even the most optimistic forcast in many cases
- Even if there would be a slowdown, which there invariably will (companies cannot grow at triple rates forever), and competition intensifies somewhat due to new players, valuations are really very attractive
- To give you an example, Trina is going to have $3 per share in earnings this year at least. We’re already less than four months from the end of the year, so it’s hardly a forward p/e we’re talking about but at present, that would result in a p/e of 8.
- Although energy is correcting on the slowdown of the world economy, OPEC is already cutting back supply and longer-term, the oil shortage (and correlated global warming problems) won’t go away. Solars are an indispensible part of the solution. The sector will keep on growing.
You can see that:
- 25 has been a support before
- TSL is getting to oversold territory
Can it go any lower? In this market, anything is possible, but it sure isn’t rational, which means it would correct over time. If you’re short term trader you may want to watch whether the 25 level holds (or use a stop-loss), but for the longer term, this seems a decent entry point..