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March 28th, 2009 · 3 Comments

Fewer and fewer sceptics, fewer and fewer reasons to be sceptic. A quick review..

For weeks, a certain message board troll tried to scare people with the upcoming 40-F (the year-end filing), although he had no way of knowing what would be in it, it’s just the usual scare tactics for lack of anything more substantial.

As it turned out, the 40-F was rather benign, and that is using a considerable understatement. An independent engineering bureau (GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd.) measured what they had until Dec. 31, that is, excluding the massive Antelope1 find.

As it turned out, the figures where the following:

  • P1: 2.32Tcf gas and 36.7Mbs of condensates
  • P2: 3.43Tcf gas and 59.3Mbs of condensates
  • P3: 4.73Tcf gas and 87.9Mbs of condensates

And, we keep stressing, this is excluding Antelope1, where the payzone was 12 times that of Elk4, and average porosity several times higher.

A simple calculation, $1 per Mcf and $10 per barrel of condenstates, taking into account that InterOil’s net part is 55%, will achieve a cool $2 Billion valuation (excluding refinery, retail business, other prospects).

We understand that after including the Antelope1 data, these figures will, to put it mildly, materially increase.

And we would almost forget, 2008 was the first year the refinery achieved an operating profit. In the greater scheme of things, it’s not terribly important, but steady improvement and capacity utilization is continuing.

We would say, and we have said that for some time, things can only get better.

Tags: IOC

3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Jim Tate // Mar 28, 2009 at 4:37 pm

    We go much higher in tme

  • 2 Janine // Mar 29, 2009 at 3:15 am

    I really think that Antelope 1 will be in the range of 15 to 18T when they are done. They will find oil soon… Ant 2 will be larger than Ant 1 !! 3 an 4 don’t know yet. Long term distribution agreement + farm out next 30 days. #’s from Ant 1 + the above will = $300 to $500 a share in that period. Congat’s to all!!!!!!!!!!!

  • 3 Darcy Patten // Mar 29, 2009 at 7:18 am

    Thanx for those tidbits Janine, looks like I need to buy some bottles of champange!

    Also, Professor, I have some questions:

    On page 22 of the 40-F it states that Interoil has 55.67% working interest or the reserves. Based upon this fact my questions are:

    1) Does this working interest include Antelope or is it for Elk only?
    2) If it does not include Antelope, do you know Interoil’s working interest in Antelope?

    Interoil is stating that they are looking to sell up to a 25% interest:

    3) Is this sale for Elk only or is Antelope also included?
    4) Is the sale of the 25% included in the above 55.67% working interest or will it be in addition to?

    Thanx in advance for your time!