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Food and commodities the place to be

April 15th, 2009 · No Comments

According to legendary investor (who once travelled the world on a motorbike in search for the next emerging market) Jim Rogers…

Two reasons for his bullishness:

  • Investment in production capacity has been insufficient for years (and add to that population and income growth, we would say)
  • The same programs that have improved credit conditions (quantitative easing) will create inflation down the road, which is also bullish for commodities

Rogers: Food Prices Will Skyrocket
By: Julie Crawshaw

Commodities bull Jim Rogers says food prices are going to go up — way up.

“I think you should move back to Indiana and marry a farmer,” Rogers told Newsweek.

“Farmers are going to be the ones driving Lamborghinis, and the traders are going to have to learn to drive tractors.”

“Consumer prices are going to go way up. The public is already getting out of paper money, which is why you’re seeing gold go up.”

The only people who will make money in the next 20 years will make it in commodities, Rogers says, though he acknowledges that technological advances could result in lower commodity prices.

Commodities are the only asset class where the fundamentals are improving, Rogers notes, adding that after 35 years of low investment in production capacity, supply has declined greatly.

Just about any stock you can think about is at or below where it was in the 1970s right now, Rogers points out — and now is only time in history when every central bank in the world is printing money at the same time.

Inflation “will get higher than it was in the 1970s,” political economist Allan Meltzer told Bloomberg.

Meltzer says political pressure will prevent Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke from withdrawing liquidity fast enough as the economy recovers.

It will be a replay of the 1970s, when former Fed chair Arthur Burns allowed excessive money supply growth and consumer prices rose at a year-over-year rate of 13.3 percent.

———

We’re not so sure about that inflation. Yes, when the economy recovers, price increases will be higher than today, but just as we’ve learned how to combat a recession, we know how to prevent accelerating inflation to get hold. On the other hand, that’s no guarantee it won’t happen..

Tags: Commodities