The latest RJ report actually contains more possible upside than that..
Here is the latest report from Raymond James:
IOC: Raising Target Price to Match $54 NAV and Highlighting Upcoming Catalysts Analyst(s): Pavel Molchanov
- Having maintained a $45.00 target price for InterOil since last October, we are taking this opportunity to raise it to $54.00. There is no specific catalyst this week that prompted this decision. Rather, we have come to believe, with the story having been steadily “de-risked” over the past three months, that our target price should be, for the sake of intellectual consistency, in line with our risked NAV/share of $53.82, rather than a discount to it. Given the “option value” upside to this NAV, investors should look at this number as more of a floor than a ceiling.
- Let us recap what our NAV estimate includes, and more importantly, what it does not include. Following InterOil’s first-ever independent reserve report in March, we have been using the year-end 2008 data to calculate resource value. Specifically, we use the “low end” of the resource range for gas and condensate at Elk/Antelope, unrisked; plus the difference between the “low end” and “best guess” cases, risked at 50%. As before, we use a discounted cash flow approach for the refinery and downstream assets.
- Our NAV does not include any of the following:
- (1) the “high end” of the year-end resource range;
- (2) presumed increase in the resource estimates subsequent to year-end, notably given the record flow rate from the Antelope-1 well;
- (3) credit for the potential oil leg;
- (4) credit for the asset value premium InterOil may receive as part of its monetization deal with strategic partners; or
- (5) credit for resource potential at prospects other than Elk/Antelope.
- How might this NAV upside be actualized? Over the next few weeks, we expect to get final testing data from Antelope-1, providing further clarity not only on the oil potential but also the condensate levels, including the prospects of a liquids stripping facility. This will be followed by the drilling of Antelope-2, and later on, other prospects. Concurrently, an asset monetization transaction remains on the agenda. We think the process (ultimately involving multiple partners) should wrap up by year-end, with initial announcements made as early as this summer. Following a multi-phased transaction, we believe InterOil would have sufficient capital to fund further exploration and development drilling for the next several years. We reiterate our Strong Buy rating.