We’ve argued before that the analysis of Petrengr1 are collectors items. He just added another couple of gems about the possibilities of producing oil at Elk/Antelope..
I am afraid that some of you may not have grasped the significance of my first two posts entitled “Where is the Oil Hiding”. For anyone who is interested you may find them at http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Busine…
and at http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Busine…
Why am I pushing this. Well it is so you can have a more complete understanding of what this Elk/Antelope Field is all about. It is very important to understand that the best porosity and permeability is present in the reef or dolomite which is at the top of the zone. In Antelope 1 we had 746 feet of this dolomite. So what we would like to do is find oil in the very high porosity dolomite. Now we know the dolomite is at the top of the reef so all we have to do is find the dolomite at the same sub sea depth as the oil column. We have to find the top of the zone at a down dip location where the top of the zone will be filled with oil. I have told you before that the “known” oil zone is at a sub sea depth of -7133 feet to -7390 feet or a 257 foot oil column. Some of IOC’s charts suggest the oil zone may be as deep as -7520 feet sub sea which would make the oil column 387 feet thick but let’s just depend on the 257 foot oil column for the present time or until more information is obtained in Antelope 2. In the past I have mentioned that, based on the recent 3-D images in IOC’s presentations I could not see what was on the west side of the structure. I have found an old picture, possibly out dated, but one that I like very much. It might even be the one that others have told us “it is right in front of your face” or it might be the one that got Tusker so excited about when he told us we had oil to the southeast of the structure. So here it is: http://www.interoil.com/presentation/200… Chart 16. This is a structure map drawn on the TOP of the reef. As we get new seismic data the interpretation may change but for now let’s use this old map. Now have a look at the southeast part of this picture. You will see that the structure broadens and flattens out as shown by the wider spacing of the contour lines. What does this mean to us in our search for oil at the top of the dolomite zone? Well, not only does the top of the zone (dolomite) go down dip but it flattens out down dip to cover a much wider area where the top of the zone will be located at the proper sub sea depth to contain the oil column. Make yourself a copy of this map and draw a big circle around the southeast part of it where the contour lines are widely separated. You have now identified where the main part of the oil field may be. Now for the rest of the story. On the recent presentations we can not see the west side of the structure but on this picture it shows an anticline sloping off in all directions. So if this is the true picture of what we find when we drill wells we can expect an oil ring in the high porosity dolomite on all sides of the structure, it is just that the surface area of the ring will not be as broad on the west side as it will be on the southeast side of the structure.
I believe the gas test and finding the dolomite higher than expected at Antelope 2 has validated the Antelope structure as far as the gas reserves are concerned. When the next estimate of gas reserves comes out after the first of the year (maybe as late as April) I believe they will report 10-11 TCF. Could it eventually be larger? I would not bet against it. It will take 5 years are so to get the LNG plant, the pipeline, compressor station and field treatment plant built so we have plenty of time to drill the producing wells for the LNG plant. If Antelope 2 has the same or a similar dolomite thickness and gas column height as Antelope 1(the gas column height is a foregone conclusion) the development phase for the gas should be like shooting fish in a barrel i.e. low risk. On a near term basis I hope they prove commercial oil either in the vertical hole, if the porosity is present, or they will do so with a horizontal hole directed toward the edge of the structure where the top of the reef and the high porosity is located. As soon as we can monetize some of the gas assets by selling off up to 35% we should have sufficient funds to embark on a significant drilling campaign to develop both the gas and the oil as well as drill some of the surrounding prospects.
I hope this brightens your day if the increasing stock price has not already done so.
Back tracking a little. I should not have said the gas column height at Antelope 2 “was a foregone conclusion” to be the same or similar to Antelope 1. The gas/oil contact should be the foregone conclusion but since Antelope 2 is about 300 feet down dip from Antelope 1 the gas column height should be about 2000 feet as compared to the 2300 feet at Antelope 1.
The gas cap is driving the oil from the top and the water aquifer is driving it from the bottom. If we have porosity and permability in the oil column it will flow to the surface for a VERY long time without losing any of it flowing potential. That is why we need to produce the oil first before producing the gas which will reduce the reservoir pressure.
Geo-Yes that is about it. It is not the oil that is on the perimeter of the structure, it is the top of the reef (dolomite) that is on the perimeter. As the dolomite slopes down dip it is first full of gas (at the top of the structure) and then as it slopes down dip it reaches the oil zone and will be found full of oil and eventually further down dip it will be found to be water bearing. The oil zone is “everywhere” under the reef, it is just not always in porous and permeable rock. That will be found on the perimeter where the porous rock slopes down far enough to reach the oil zone.