According to them, Elk/Antelope is now the biggest natural gas field on PNG, exceeding the Hides field in the highlands by OilSearch…
More Gas and Condensate:
Elk/Antelope Likely the Largest Field in PNG
- Price Target $115.00 to $120.00
- Impact on our views: We are increasing our target price to $120, an 80% premium to Friday’s close, to reflect a de-risking of the upstream partnership process. In our view, today’s higher resource estimate, making Elk/Antelope the largest field in PNG, increases the likelihood that IOC’s gas will be monetized.
- We are increasing our NAV by $14 per share (more than our target price increase) to reflect the NPV of an additional LNG train supported by today’s higher resource estimate. We are not reflecting the full NAV value in our target price today since a partnership is required to unlock that value.
- We would expect the discount between our NAV and our target price to close when the condensate and LNG partnership agreements are signed. Today’s information is further validation of IOC’s resource and exploration portfolio and is important to both equity investors and potential LNG/upstream partners.
- Today, IOC released the conclusions of its 12/31/09 resource update prepared by GLJ Petroleum Consultants reporting: a Best (P50), Low (P90), and High (P10) resource case for Elk/Antelope of 8.18, 6.19, and 9.94 Tcfe of gas, respectively; and a Best, Low, and High case for condensate of 156.5, 117.1, and 194.7 mmbbls, respectively.
- We were assuming 6.7Tcfe of gas and 120mmbbls of condensate. The total mid-point case exceeds 9Tcfe that is 143% higher than the 12/31/08 estimate and is 34% higher than the most recent Knowledge Reservoir estimate (6.7Tcfe). We believe this estimate exceeds expectations (7Tcfe) and was released earlier than expected (March).
- GLJ’s report also indicates that “no significant oil leg exists.” We do not assume any value for oil and believe oil expectations are limited after the recent sell-off.
[Shareholdersunite is adding as a note that the oil information that has been used is based upon data up until the 31st of December 2009. Evaluation is still underway.]