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ATPG update

October 14th, 2010 · No Comments

That RSI at 80, which sort of screamed at us earlier in the day, kicked in rather fast..

We feared it was due for an imminent pause, and it delivered pretty fast. We have to make clear that the bull case from Devon Shire in our previous post is certainly not shared by everybody. It’s best to see it as something of a ‘best case’ scenario. For instance, analyst expectations for next year range from a loss of 80c to a profit of $2.69 per share. This year is going to be pretty brutal (consensus loss of $2.45 per share), for obvious reasons.

That’s a whopping range. It’s not that surprising as the timing of the new wells is a rather decisive element here, and this is dependent on them getting drilling permits. Now, with the Titan being one of the most modern facilities, they should be pretty early in line, but apart from that, there is little one can say about this.

We’ll try to get more on this in the near future. In the mean-time, there is a new presentation, you can read it here.

We have a feeling the stock will consolidate from here. That doesn’t mean we don’t think there is further upside, but this depends on the company getting the permits to drill sooner rather than later.

The MC#3 well (7K) actually came a bit below previous estimates (7.5-10k). It remains to be seen how long this rate can hold, and whether the other wells will meet expectations.

Tags: ATPG