But does it matter? Probably not..
Earnings, although greatly worsened by one time charges (legal settlement, drill refurbishing, IPI investor buyout) disappointed, but then again, this stock has never been about present earnings, it is about future earnings, a future when they’ll produce gas and liquids.
Speaking about liquids, the significant reduction in the liquids numbers in the GLJ report was the real disappointment. In BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) terms, although the size of the resource still went up, but still.. This is something few, if any, expected.
This one-two punch, together with slightly overbought conditions, was enough to knock the stock of its socks, although late in the day buyers returned hoping for a positive explanation in the CC tomorrow before opening, or buyers with a more patient nature.
That remains to be seen.
However, we urge you to keep seeing the forest through the trees:
- The slight alternations in the GLJ resource numbers still point to a very large resource that is valued at a substantial discount (around 50cents per Mcf)
- The quality of the resource (as witnessed by the world-record flow numbers, the size, the porosity, the incredible 2277ft and 1175ft of NET pay, the near instant pressure recovery, etc.) is world class and all but guarantees very profitable monetization opportunities
- The 4M acres with 40+ promising structures
- The FID June 30 deadlines of the Mitsui liquids stripping plant and the EWC 3mtpa modular LNG plant
- Possible Mitsui options exercise, offtake deals, resource sell-downs
- All this in the backdrop of a general climate of increased energy demand and prices, with Asian economies growing fast, the trouble in the Middle-East, the nuclear knock-out in Japan.
We continue to believe strongly in the mid to long-term investment case for Interoil, even if the coming days might get a little volatile, or even a little disappointing, possibly. We’ll know more about that before the opening tomorrow.