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Entries from January 2016

January 2016

January 28th, 2016 · Comments Off on January 2016

This is what we argued yesterday Look at the Amazon earnings and earnings expectations (click the attachment): You see that from Q4 2015 onwards, there is a marked acceleration expected. This is, of course, largely based on the profitability of AWS, Amazon Web Services. But before we’ll buy, we like to have some confirmation that […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking Alpha

January 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on A Uniquely American Problem | Seeking Alpha

Until now, the US economy recovered fairly briskly from the financial crisis, with solid private sector growth. The US recovery is much better than in most other areas of the world economy. But there is one area where the US lags, and that is wages. But US wages have been stagnant for decades, and this […]

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Tags: Economics

How To Navigate These Dangerous Markets | Seeking Alpha

January 24th, 2016 · Comments Off on How To Navigate These Dangerous Markets | Seeking Alpha

The markets are extremely dangerous territory right now. It is all about China: The risks of a substantial yuan devaluation are considerable, but not necessarily imminent. This means that the risks are large, but medium-term. We provide some pointers regarding what to look out for as you navigate the markets. Source: How To Navigate These […]

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Tags: China · The Markets

Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

January 23rd, 2016 · Comments Off on Government Figures Are Doctored, The Recession Lives On! | Seeking Alpha

There is still a substantial minority of people who argue that the US never really left the 2008 recession. They do not believe official data and argue that unemployment is much higher than the official figures. We’ll take a dispassionate look at this and portray the development of the labor market with the development of […]

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Tags: Economics

It’s A Bear Market Already! | Seeking Alpha

January 21st, 2016 · Comments Off on It’s A Bear Market Already! | Seeking Alpha

Most stocks are in a bear market already, given that the US indices were held up by a few very large gains of some titans like Amazon and Netflix. Earnings are moving downwards on average, although mostly due to energy and materials. The quality of earnings also leaves much to be desired. Yet this is […]

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Tags: The Markets

The China Crisis Is Real And Dangerous | Seeking Alpha

January 20th, 2016 · Comments Off on The China Crisis Is Real And Dangerous | Seeking Alpha

China poses the biggest risk for the world economy. The country is struggling to contain strong capital outflows. As a result, the yuan and Chinese forex reserves are falling, raising the odds of a self-fulfilling prophesy of a substantial devaluation that would wreck havoc on the world economy. Source: The China Crisis Is Real And […]

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Tags: China · The Markets

January 2016

January 19th, 2016 · Comments Off on January 2016

When bad news turns into good news, we could have reached the point where markets start to stabilize, at least for some time: Shares in Europe and Asia rose on Tuesday and the dollar gained after data showing China’s economy grew last year at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century led investors […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Profiting From Eurozone Dysfunctions | Seeking Alpha

January 19th, 2016 · Comments Off on Profiting From Eurozone Dysfunctions | Seeking Alpha

A good part of the disappointing growth can be blamed on the existence of a world savings glut. However, the good news is this seems to be topping out. However, eurozone dysfunctions produce additional savings, which we show are likely to remain. But there is a way to actually profit from this dysfunction. Source: Profiting […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Why All The Gloom And Doom? – Part II | Seeking Alpha

January 18th, 2016 · Comments Off on Why All The Gloom And Doom? – Part II | Seeking Alpha

While the recovery created a lot of private sector jobs and there was a fair amount of deleveraging, growth is hardly exuberant, we look at the reasons why. Other good news is that the world’s saving glut is topping out, as this is a main factor behind disappointing growth (or secular stagnation). However, much depends […]

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Tags: The Markets

Why All The Gloom And Doom? | Seeking Alpha

January 16th, 2016 · Comments Off on Why All The Gloom And Doom? | Seeking Alpha

The US seems to be in the grip of gloom and doom. A dispassionate look at the figures shows little foundation for this. Many seem to expect some kind of crash. While a significant correction is always likely, we see little reason for a 2008 style crash, unless there is some black swan event (big […]

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Tags: The Markets