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Entries from June 2016

Is Japan Caught In A Public Debt Trap?

June 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on Is Japan Caught In A Public Debt Trap?

So far, the Japanese economy has escaped the bursting of asset bubbles 3x the size of those in the US without suffering a depression or double digit unemployment. The price they paid for that is the ratcheting up of the public debt/GDP ratio, which at 250% looms as a serious threat over Japan and the […]

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Tags: Japan

Skechers Is Oversold And Cheap

June 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on Skechers Is Oversold And Cheap

Skechers still seems to pay a heavy price for an earnings miss two quarters ago. Much of that was due to one-time factors and currency headwinds. The stock is oversold, an inch above a major support level, and cheap. We think most of any possible bad news is already priced in and see a favorable […]

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Tags: SKX

The U.S. Needs A Supply Revolution

June 19th, 2016 · Comments Off on The U.S. Needs A Supply Revolution

An increased regulatory burden is often blamed for the slowdown of US growth and decreasing economic dynamism. Much of this is simply the result of an increasing complexity of modern economic life. However, that doesn’t mean there are no problems with regulation, especially where they seem to favor large incumbents in markets who use the […]

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Tags: Economic Policy · Reform Capitalism

Secular Profit Rise, Cyclical Profit Downturn

June 19th, 2016 · Comments Off on Secular Profit Rise, Cyclical Profit Downturn

There has been a substantial shift of income from wages to profits. This has been an important part of secular stagnation and has been a drag on economic growth. Cyclical forces are now consipring to reverse at least some of this, which is good news for the economy, but less so for investors. Secular Profit […]

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Tags: Solar sector

It Is Actually Surprisingly Easy To Cure Secular Stagnation

June 5th, 2016 · Comments Off on It Is Actually Surprisingly Easy To Cure Secular Stagnation

Secular stagnation means lower growth produced by excess savings over investment. We think the main source for this savings glut is the corporate world, which sitting on record amounts of cash and enjoys record profitability. Rather than investing, these profits are either accumulated or dealt out to executives and shareholders, adding to the savings glut. […]

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Tags: Secular Stagnation

Time To Fire Up Japanese Helicopters

June 5th, 2016 · Comments Off on Time To Fire Up Japanese Helicopters

Japan hasn’t been able to break the debt-deflationary cycle that has plagued its economy for over two decades. Monetary policy isn’t likely to achieve it either. It’s time for bolder experiments, a fiscal package directly financed by the central bank. While not without risk, the risk of doing nothing shouldn’t be underestimated either. Time To […]

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Tags: Japan