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Entries from March 2017

The Hurdles To Higher Economic Growth

March 15th, 2017 · No Comments

Stocks are pricing in a considerable amount of higher economic growth. However, there are a number of barriers that make it difficult to meaningfully achieve higher economic growth in the US. We go through some of these, most notably the labor market and the risks of higher inflation. The Hurdles To Higher Economic Growth | […]

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Tags: Economy

Turning The U.S. Into Germany

March 15th, 2017 · No Comments

The US experienced something of a populist revolution, people are unhappy with the economy, among other things. While Bernie Sanders wanted to change the US into Denmark, it’s less clear what economic model Trump admires. From his trade adviser Peter Navarro we gather that it could be Germany. Can the US be turned into Germany? […]

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Tags: Economy

Intel’s Adventures In The Internet Of Things

March 15th, 2017 · No Comments

Shares of Intel are plagued by worries about growth. To some extent, these worries are overblown. Intel even managed growth in a declining PC market. And they have plenty of growth sectors to invest in, like the Internet of Things, which also drives growth for many of their core products. The downside is that this […]

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Tags: INTC

Shares Expect Too Much From A Trump Reflation Already

March 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Shares Expect Too Much From A Trump Reflation Already

The Trump reflation package is liable to disappoint in terms of reviving business investment and growth. It is also liable to create a hole in public finances, and likely remedies like a border tax could hobble growth more. Equity markets seem oblivious to this, which might continue for a while but reality has a habit […]

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Tags: The Markets · Trump

Ellie Mae Remains A Good Company That’s Terrifically Valued

March 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Ellie Mae Remains A Good Company That’s Terrifically Valued

Shares of Ellie Mae sold off after the Trump victory as people feared higher mortgage rates would cut their growth. But the company has demonstrated before that they can grow even with headwinds from the market, so the worries were overblown. They are also investing to service even more of the mortgage origination market; this […]

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Tags: ELLI

Trade The Trump Popularity Index

March 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Trade The Trump Popularity Index

There seem to be two Trump’s, one that’s good for markets and one that’s bad for markets. Investors find it difficult to make sense of this which is adding to a sense of uncertainty and wildly different assessments. There are a few ways to trade this though. Trade The Trump Popularity Index | Seeking Alpha

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Tags: The Markets · Trade · Trump

Will Italy’s Lost Decades End With A Bang?

March 3rd, 2017 · Comments Off on Will Italy’s Lost Decades End With A Bang?

Italy’s economy isn’t expected to return to its 2007 output level until the mid 2020s. While Italy would benefit from an Italian Margaret Thatcher, there are few good options left to save its economy. Not even leaving the euro, now openly discussed, is without problems. Meanwhile, debt and banking problems persist and the risks abound. […]

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Tags: Eurocrisis · Italy

If You Kick The Can Long Enough, It Becomes A Bomb

March 3rd, 2017 · Comments Off on If You Kick The Can Long Enough, It Becomes A Bomb

Greek debt is simply unsustainable, even the IMF says so. The only way to have a chance of defusing this time bomb is to exchange debt relief for the IMF reform program but politics and discord are preventing this. There is a toxic mix brewing with other countries on the brink and looming political instability […]

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Tags: Eurocrisis

Is Intel Forfeiting Its Process Leadership?

March 1st, 2017 · Comments Off on Is Intel Forfeiting Its Process Leadership?

Intel’s process lead is the most important variable that underpins almost everything at Intel. There are signs that Intel is slowly losing that advantage. While we think these concerns are a little premature, the development of its foundry business actually provides some reasons for concern. Is Intel Forfeiting Its Process Leadership?

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Tags: INTC

The Trump Administration’s Trade Philosophy Is A Threat To Stocks

March 1st, 2017 · Comments Off on The Trump Administration’s Trade Philosophy Is A Threat To Stocks

Capitalism is creative destruction, international trade isn’t any different. Singling it out as the one cause of destruction doesn’t make sense. It is also factually incorrect, trade isn’t responsible for the bulk of US manufacturing job losses. Focusing on trade, with a deeply flawed underlying logic, risks undermining the global economic order and achieving the […]

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Tags: Public Policy · Trump