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Entries from August 2017

NeoPhotonics – The Biggest Casualty Of The China Slowdown

August 28th, 2017 · Comments Off on NeoPhotonics – The Biggest Casualty Of The China Slowdown

NeoPhotonics doesn’t have much of a profitable history, at least not the last 5 years. The company is very dependent on China, and as long as Chinese demand doesn’t recover, the shares aren’t going anywhere. However, should Chinese demand come back, which it will at some time, a considerable amount of operational leverage could kick […]

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Tags: NPTN

Oclaro Is Cheap

August 28th, 2017 · Comments Off on Oclaro Is Cheap

Another optical networker hit by some headwinds, much of it blowing out of China. But we see reasons for some optimism here. The shares are reasonably priced and the company seems to have less legacy business and is well positioned in high growth areas. The headwinds will also taper off sooner or later. Source: Oclaro […]

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Tags: OCLR

Cirrus Should Be Fine

August 23rd, 2017 · Comments Off on Cirrus Should Be Fine

Cirrus sold off after guiding fiscal Q2 a little soft, despite beating Q1 numbers. We think not too much should be made of the soft quarterly guidance, given the variety in quarterly figures. The company has some good longer-term opportunities and we see Apple more as a strength, rather than a risk. Source: Cirrus Should […]

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Tags: CRUS

Lumentum Q4: Take Aways

August 23rd, 2017 · Comments Off on Lumentum Q4: Take Aways

Lumentum’s shares performed a dramatic turn-around after the conference call. The quarter was a mixed bag, with booming 100G and VSCELs, but soft lasers and telecom. On balance, the tailwinds are likely to be more enduring than the headwinds, so we’re fairly optimistic for the shares. Source: Lumentum Q4: Take Aways – Lumentum Holdings Inc. […]

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Tags: LITE

Japan Defies Hard Money Economics

August 23rd, 2017 · Comments Off on Japan Defies Hard Money Economics

Japan proposes an interesting challenge to hard money economics, having embarked on seemingly massively irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. One has to keep in mind that these lessons, as extraordinary as they are, only apply under a very specific economic situation. That is, they should certainly not be generalized, but they are interesting and very […]

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Tags: Japan

There Is A Bear Case For Applied Optoelectronics But We Can’t See Much Of It

August 21st, 2017 · Comments Off on There Is A Bear Case For Applied Optoelectronics But We Can’t See Much Of It

Applied Optoelectronics is a battleground stock with the shorts getting a boost by a surprise softness in Q3 guidance from the company. When parsing the competing narratives, we see little in the Q3 softness for the shorts to rejoice. More specifically, we don’t see any reason for AAOI doing much worse in 100G as it […]

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Tags: AAOI

Universal Display Will Grow Into Its Valuation

August 21st, 2017 · Comments Off on Universal Display Will Grow Into Its Valuation

A financially very sound market leader facing expanding markets which are in the first innings of development. But the shares are already reflecting most, if not all, of the near future growth. And longer term, the company is not entirely without risk as it’s not totally impossible that competing technology could eventually match it on […]

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Tags: DATA

Tableau Software Steps On The Accelerator

August 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Tableau Software Steps On The Accelerator

We didn’t see a long case for Tableau, but others clearly do. Re-evaluating the situation, we do see the growth and the operational leverage. However, we still don’t see a path to profitability. Source: Tableau Software Steps On The Accelerator – Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) | Seeking Alpha

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Tags: DATA

The Next Eurozone Battle Is Shaping Up

August 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on The Next Eurozone Battle Is Shaping Up

The structural design deficiencies in the eurozone have been papered over by the cyclical tailwinds in the economy and balming ECB action. But at the first sight of headwinds, these will reassert themselves with a vengeance. Remedial action is already very difficult as it involves a leap forward in European integration for which there is […]

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Tags: Eurocrisis

Cognex Is A Terrific Company But Already Fully Valued

August 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Cognex Is A Terrific Company But Already Fully Valued

A well managed company growing solidly with a history of exceeding expectations, often by quite some margin. Management has a keen eye for opportunities, whether these are new segments, applications or acquiring new capabilities. The company is financially very sound as well, producing lots of free cash flow and having $700M+ in net cash on […]

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Tags: CGNX