So far, the Japanese economy has escaped the bursting of asset bubbles 3x the size of those in the US without suffering a depression or double digit unemployment. The price they paid for that is the ratcheting up of the public debt/GDP ratio, which at 250% looms as a serious threat over Japan and the […]
Entries Tagged as 'Japan'
June 25th, 2016 · Comments Off on Is Japan Caught In A Public Debt Trap?
June 5th, 2016 · Comments Off on Time To Fire Up Japanese Helicopters
Japan hasn’t been able to break the debt-deflationary cycle that has plagued its economy for over two decades. Monetary policy isn’t likely to achieve it either. It’s time for bolder experiments, a fiscal package directly financed by the central bank. While not without risk, the risk of doing nothing shouldn’t be underestimated either. Time To […]
March 20th, 2015 · Comments Off on Japan, A Failed Keynesian State?
It’s popular in certain circles to depict Japan as a sort of Keynesian failed state, plagued by by near insurmountable economic problems such as an insurmountable debt burden. But Japan’s problems can be traced back to the burst of epic asset bubbles, which hobbled the country for decades. While far from perfect, the policy reaction […]
February 10th, 2015 · Comments Off on The Japanese Endgame
Some argue Abeconomics has already failed. Others argue it will end in hyperinflation, or in a massive capital flight, or a bond market crash, or all of the above. Others argue that Japan won’t reach the escape velocity needed to bring its debt situation under control. While we can’t discard these risks entirely, we think […]
January 22nd, 2015 · Comments Off on It’s Too Early To Write The Obituary Of Abeconomics
Some argue that Abeconomics alredy failed (after less than two years) and make it a showcase of failed Keynesianism. It’s too early to draw conclusions though. It’s funny, because what (temparary?) derailed Abeconomics was a tax hike, under the Japanese economic circumstances the very antithesis of Keynesian policy. We should also remind people that Abeconomics […]
December 31st, 2014 · Comments Off on Japanese Shares Still Worth Considering?
The Bank of Japan provided another shot of monetary stimulus, surprising markets all around. We think that under the conditions, they didn’t have much choice, there isn’t any clear alternative. We could learn from history, in the 1930s both the US and Japan beat the depression, only to shoot themselves in the foot. The April […]
November 27th, 2014 · Comments Off on Jananese Shares are Still a Buy
We think that Japanese shares are still attractive, for a number of reasons. They are not expensive, haven’t done much this year, profits are good, big institutions are buying and the government is hell bent of getting Japan out of its deflationary funk. The main risk to us is that the recent tax hike might […]
October 12th, 2014 · Comments Off on Japan’s Lost Decades Revisited
Japan’s experiment with Abeconomics remains widely misunderstood. It is modelled on an earlier successful Japanese reflation attempt in the 1930s. Since the eurozone is plagued by similar ills which threaten the stability of the world economy, the experiment has special relevance here. Japan’s Lost Decades Revisited | Seeking Alpha
December 16th, 2013 · Comments Off on Is Japan turning the corner?
The Tankan sentiment index for small non-manufacturers turned positive for the first time since 1992, rising to 4, with construction companies the most optimistic. The end of Japan’s lost decades?
September 9th, 2013 · Comments Off on The end of Japan’s lost decades?
A marked improvement in capital expenditure led to an upward revision in April-June gross domestic product GDP to an annualised 3.8 percent expansion from a preliminary 2.6 percent increase via The end of Japan’s lost decades?.