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Entries Tagged as 'The Markets'

As Good As It Gets?

October 27th, 2017 · Comments Off on As Good As It Gets?

Goldman Sachs argues that the synchronized growth spurt in the world economy is unlikely to last. We can only hope it does, at least for a while as it takes some of the sting out of the biggest risks in the world economy. Throwing oil on the fire in the form of pro-cyclical policies seems […]

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Tags: The Markets

FANG: The Default Stocks To Buy When The Market Misbehaves?

October 24th, 2017 · Comments Off on FANG: The Default Stocks To Buy When The Market Misbehaves?

Cramer argues that FANG stocks have become “the default stocks to buy when you get freaked out,” supposedly by market trouble. If he is right and these stocks sell off only very mildly in a serious market correction, investors can have their cake and eat it. That is, they would have both considerable market insurance […]

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Tags: The Markets

Black Monday, When The Music Stopped. Can It Happen Again?

October 20th, 2017 · Comments Off on Black Monday, When The Music Stopped. Can It Happen Again?

Black Monday, the day that the Dow Jones crashed 22.6% in a single day, is 30 years ago this Thursday. This commemoration will not help those investors who are already fraying from all those new market highs and the unusually low volatility. Black Monday, can it happen again? We’ll look at some differences and similarities. […]

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Tags: The Markets

Could Inflation Yet Take Off?

October 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on Could Inflation Yet Take Off?

Central bankers don’t have a good grasp on inflation, or better, the lack of it. While not as dramatic as then, but some warned in 2010 that QE would be massively inflationary, it was anything but. This wasn’t so hard to explain, but if we apply the same logic now the risks for the markets […]

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Tags: The Markets

Is The Market Held At 1929 Valuations By The Prospect Of Tax Cuts?

October 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on Is The Market Held At 1929 Valuations By The Prospect Of Tax Cuts?

According to Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, the market is at least in part held at 1929 valuations by the prospects of significant tax cuts. If Shiller is right, this is a scary prospect because the sort of tax cuts as proposed by the government are unlikely to create much bang for the buck. There are […]

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Tags: The Markets

‘Ice Age’ Bear Claims He Was Too Optimistic

September 21st, 2017 · Comments Off on ‘Ice Age’ Bear Claims He Was Too Optimistic

After temporarily suspending his deflationary expectations, perma-bear Albert Edwards is back to his old ways, predicting a deflationary wave for the US economy. The bad news is, if he’s right, the consequences for many US (and overseas) asset prices are substantial, to put it mildly. The good news is, if he’s only half right, it […]

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Tags: The Markets

And Now For Those Tax Cuts

September 21st, 2017 · Comments Off on And Now For Those Tax Cuts

The administration is arguing it’s now focused on tax reform, a major driver of the post-election rally in stocks. It would indeed be beneficial for stocks, but so far we have seen intentions, no concrete proposals let alone bills. And there are significant hurdles to overcome and depending on what’s actually in the bill, its […]

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Tags: The Markets

Back To The Trump Reflation Rally?

September 12th, 2017 · Comments Off on Back To The Trump Reflation Rally?

With the departure of Bannon, most of the economic agenda seems to be of a traditional Republican one, which the markets applaud. Indeed, the economic nationalism of the likes of Bannon doesn’t make much sense even in economic terms. However, the economic nationalist agenda has already had a couple of successes under its belt and […]

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Tags: The Markets

Could The Fed End The Stock Rally?

July 12th, 2017 · Comments Off on Could The Fed End The Stock Rally?

The Fed could trigger a recession and a considerable stock market selloff if it tightens too much. We doubt there is much need for that given the fact that inflation is still very well behaved. In fact, in a world plagued by deflationary forces and high debt levels, a little inflation isn’t actually much of […]

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Tags: Monetary policy · The Markets

Populism, Trade And The Markets

July 10th, 2017 · Comments Off on Populism, Trade And The Markets

Much of our prosperity in general and shareholder returns in particular depend on the global economic order of relatively free trade and capital flows. That order has been singled out as the source of stagnation by an increasingly populist movement. While there are indeed groups left behind from the disruption caused by trade, it is […]

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Tags: The Markets