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Entries Tagged as 'The Markets'

Argentinian Canary In The Coal Mine?

May 22nd, 2018 · Comments Off on Argentinian Canary In The Coal Mine?

Argentina seems to be the first victim of a more difficult international climate for emerging markets. In a way, this is somewhat surprising as the country isn’t on the brink of a default and there aren’t bank runs and the economy still grows, this isn’t 2001. However, there are no easy solutions and should the […]

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Tags: Emerging Markets

The Great Slowdown?

April 30th, 2018 · Comments Off on The Great Slowdown?

There are signs that world economic growth is slowing down, although it’s not clear whether this is just a blip or the beginning of a more lasting trend. Lower growth would be especially toxic if accompanied with higher rates and a higher dollar. Equities seem to be pricing in at least some of these possibilities […]

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Tags: The Markets · World Economy

Technology Shares Out Of Fashion?

April 18th, 2018 · Comments Off on Technology Shares Out Of Fashion?

Bank of America argues that investors should lighten up on technology stocks. We think this is way too general an approach, investors are much better off on a case-by-case analysis. Of the valuation issues and risks they mention, only the one about a possible fallout of the recent trade tensions seems a valid concern. Source: […]

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Tags: Technology · The Markets

Chinese Investor Strike?

April 17th, 2018 · Comments Off on Chinese Investor Strike?

Macro lessons for investors part II. Some argue that the US trade deficit is simply the result of big US public sector deficits and debts (which need to be refinanced), needing foreign investors. As a result, they argue, the Chinese could strike back by stop buying US Treasuries, or even dumping their $1T+ Treasury holdings. […]

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Tags: The Markets

Macro Lessons For Investors

April 16th, 2018 · Comments Off on Macro Lessons For Investors

Macro forces are impacting financial markets continuously; investors do well getting to grips with the basics. However, there are wildly different views about how the economy works, and the debate is tainted by politics. In dramatic circumstances like the immediate wake of the financial crisis, choosing the right economic model can make a dramatic difference […]

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Tags: The Markets · The World according to Economics

Have We Seen The Highs For The Year Already?

April 13th, 2018 · Comments Off on Have We Seen The Highs For The Year Already?

If trade tensions escalate, it could tip the world economy, which is already softening into substantially lower growth. Apart from the direct effects of trade restrictions, greater uncertainty, diminished sentiment and resulting risk aversion could put quite a damper on markets and start affecting the real economy. As we will explain, what will happen in […]

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Tags: The Markets

Risks Are Increasing

April 6th, 2018 · Comments Off on Risks Are Increasing

Market risks are increasing with a more assertive President, less constrained by mainstream advisers repositioning into a more populist and neo-conservative direction. The more immediate worry are the chances of escalating trade conflicts, a direct result of the populist turn. But there are a couple of saving graces, at least for now. Source: Risks Are […]

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Tags: Economy · The Markets

No Reason To Panic

March 31st, 2018 · Comments Off on No Reason To Panic

But panic there was, with the VIX rising from the dead all the way to 35. A reassuring sign is that bonds, which arguably started the market mayhem, functioned as the traditional safe haven. Earnings growth is still solid, some air has to escape from stretched valuations. It’s unlikely, but not impossible this turns into […]

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Tags: The Markets

An Overheating U.S. Economy?

February 27th, 2018 · Comments Off on An Overheating U.S. Economy?

Fiscal policy has thrown fire on what is already a very prolonged economic upturn. With capacity tight and structural growth restrained, there are some signs of a possible overheating of the economy. However, given good corporate earnings growth, for this to cause major damage to the equity markets this process must accelerate and escalate. As […]

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Tags: The Markets

Just What The Doctor Ordered

February 6th, 2018 · Comments Off on Just What The Doctor Ordered

Two years ago, the world economy looked downright scary, with secular stagnation ravaging much of the developed world, stagnant wages, low productivity growth and various serious crisis spots. But growth returned and it took the immediate sting out of these dangerous situations, like a eurozone break-up, Chinese capital flight and emerging market dollar debt. While […]

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Tags: The Markets · World Economy