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Entries Tagged as 'The Markets'

Market Relief: Trump Turns Out To Be A Mainstream Republican

April 14th, 2017 · Comments Off on Market Relief: Trump Turns Out To Be A Mainstream Republican

While we still await details and legislative proposals of the big Trump reflation, markets do have something to celebrate from the White House. There is increasing data subscribing the view that, while perhaps not in rhetoric, Trump’s policies are fairly mainstream Republican policies. Most notable seems the gradual shift away from protectionism and hard money. […]

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Tags: The Markets · Trump

Meet The 3 Brothers That Are Ruining South Africa

April 10th, 2017 · Comments Off on Meet The 3 Brothers That Are Ruining South Africa

South Africa enjoyed a period of solid economic performance in the decade up to the financial crisis. After that, things have deteriorated, and recent revelations have brought to light a disturbing level of government capture by three Indian brothers behind the President. It will be difficult to turn things around before the elections scheduled for […]

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Tags: Emerging Markets

Is This The End Of The Trump Rally?

April 5th, 2017 · Comments Off on Is This The End Of The Trump Rally?

Have we reached the end of the Trump rally, at least for now? A good deal will depend on whether Trumpcare will pass the House on Thursday, as that will influence the chance of the rest of Trump’s policy agenda passing Congress. But to a considerable extent, it was a misnomer to call this the […]

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Tags: The Markets

Goldilocks Once More?

April 5th, 2017 · Comments Off on Goldilocks Once More?

With the rate rise, both the stock market and the bond market rallied. Both markets seem to believe that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation won’t be a problem. With the Trump reflation not arriving anytime soon, the markets could be right. Goldilocks Once More? | Seeking Alpha

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Tags: The Markets

Melt Up… What Is Really Driving The Epic Stock Rally?

March 31st, 2017 · Comments Off on Melt Up… What Is Really Driving The Epic Stock Rally?

The dominant opinion about what has caused the stock market rally is that it is expectations of a Trump reflationary package. But such package is likely to be a year away, and could very well disappoint. But as it turns out, there are other good reasons for the stock rally. Can the rally continue? On […]

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Tags: The Markets

Demand Trumps Supply

March 31st, 2017 · Comments Off on Demand Trumps Supply

Can Trump significantly lift the growth of the US economy? Trump’s reflationary efforts are likely to run into supply constraints, given by a tight labor market, low productivity growth and a low growth of the labor force. His supply policies aren’t likely to relieve these constraints anytime soon. Nevertheless, by running demand consistently higher than […]

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Tags: The Markets

Shares Expect Too Much From A Trump Reflation Already

March 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Shares Expect Too Much From A Trump Reflation Already

The Trump reflation package is liable to disappoint in terms of reviving business investment and growth. It is also liable to create a hole in public finances, and likely remedies like a border tax could hobble growth more. Equity markets seem oblivious to this, which might continue for a while but reality has a habit […]

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Tags: The Markets · Trump

Trade The Trump Popularity Index

March 11th, 2017 · Comments Off on Trade The Trump Popularity Index

There seem to be two Trump’s, one that’s good for markets and one that’s bad for markets. Investors find it difficult to make sense of this which is adding to a sense of uncertainty and wildly different assessments. There are a few ways to trade this though. Trade The Trump Popularity Index | Seeking Alpha

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Tags: The Markets · Trade · Trump

The Reflation Trade Is Coming To An End

February 6th, 2017 · Comments Off on The Reflation Trade Is Coming To An End

Reflation efforts in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis have been successful in keeping economies from slumping into depression, apart from some eurozone countries. But these reflation efforts have been running into diminishing returns almost everywhere, and are now running on their last legs. The question is, can we make an orderly transition, or […]

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Tags: The Markets

The Black Swan Market

January 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on The Black Swan Market

The markets have risen inexorably, despite numerous sizable market risks and already steep valuations. We seem to live in markets that price in all good news and ignore risks unless these actually turn real. Since that can happen with surprising speed, we give a few pointers on how to deal with this situation. The Black […]

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Tags: The Markets