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Tagged: Japex Kogas Mistui bid reason
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| February 7, 2012 at 8:39 pm #7251 | |
 efi426hemi | Hey all, I will admit that I haven’t owned a stock before that was in the middle of a sell down or a take over – which is funny given that the only two stocks I own at the moment are both in the middle of this scenario. And the more it distills in my mind, the more I love the idea of 2 nations with unlimited expertise, financing, and political clout joining up with IOC. It would stop the BS of our pps volatility, the shorting attack and make us pretty much immune to future SMs attempting to cut us off at the legs. In any event Palm mentioned in a previous post that the reason for this article might be because this national consortium was throwing a warning shot across the bow. This got me thinking, what was the real reason this article was released? * – I have to believe that all bidders know who else is bidding and likely the price offered. Is this a bad assumption? If true, why would the consortium go public? * – Was it a warning shot? To tell all other bidders that we have two nations bidding so we are too strong to challenge? Why would they say “partly to avoid bidding up the price”? * – Was it just a leak? I have a hard time believing that after 2 months of building a national partnership that this was just leaked yesterday? I am looking for guidance from our seasoned group of PI’s to their opinion of why this leaked and why it happened now? Health and Happiness to you and yours, p.s. Fu….eerr I mean screw Shell!! |
| February 7, 2012 at 9:19 pm #7255 | |
 jft310 | It was leaked to put pressure on Duma and the NEC to approve ASAP the IOC move to Gulf and use their chosen partners.I think it was deliberate and planned. |
| February 7, 2012 at 9:41 pm #7259 | |
 Palmtok | I also believe it was leaked out and very likely by Macquarie or someone that knows someone there. Mainly because it came out of Australia. Macquarie obviously is working with IOC and at least has worked with KOGAS in the past. I used the term “warning shot” but maybe that’s a little strong. More like a flare to say, “Yo, at one point we approached this alone, but now we come as a strong team. An extension of deadlines has been requested and received for this change. No reason for past business partners to try and outbid each other. We both have needs beyond this and need capital. Better to join forces and spread risk. KObama and JObama are working together.” So now a Shell or other bidders now it’s a game changer and these are 2 big LNG buyers who want this LNG badly, and if the SMs play nice, things will work well down the energy road. This was no small or random chanced leak. Though I hate “unnamed sources” this was some very specific information. Me likie. |
| February 7, 2012 at 9:41 pm #7260 | |
 Tree | Hola Hemi, IOC and this Mitsui/JAPEX/KOAS consortium have been in negotiations and are ready to sign as partners and this ‘leak’ puts very public pressure squarely on NEC to amend 2009 PA and for Duma to not attempt a block of the deal for the benefit of a bribe sponsor’s interests. I’ve been recalling Duma’s Sept.list of reasons for him to threaten IOC’s Gulf scheme and with Mitsui/JAPEX/KOGAS his bribed ‘concerns’ with Gulf LNG are pacified. Jonleba reported WA last week said that IOC could’ choose partners today’ and they awaited NEC action. It may well be we hear of other bidders, BP stated an interest in PNG, Shell is in the mix and likely also XOM. Maybe we hear of a Petronas, or other NOC too. The more bidding the better, and WA stated PNG Gov’t had no objections with any of the bidders. Either way, T-2 results and the partnering process should be finalized in Q1, happens to be the end of JP business year, they could book reserves. My money is on Mitsui/JAPEX/KOGAS consortium being the winner as they have been working to become the winner in PNG projects like this since at least 2007. |
| February 7, 2012 at 9:50 pm #7262 | |
| jft310 | This is the operator side understand.The sell down could be the same partners JKM or others.All done March maybe before.NEC approval is the catalyst to all time highs,upper $80′s my guess.Then FID’s then deals.My guess. |
| February 8, 2012 at 12:38 am #7271 | |
| efi426hemi | How about this one, STP touched on this, I will just expand on his thoughts. * – On Aug 24th Duma states “he would do whatever it takes for this [Shell] alliance.” Okay, now fast forward to today and the sell down. Things are really tight lipped and no one knows who has submitted bids. With no public knowledge of bidders it would be very easy for Duma to force Shell as there would be little backlash. For all we would have known, Shell would have been the best choice. But now the Kogas/Japex/Mistui consortium is announced to the world as a bidder. With that announcement it becomes much much harder for Duma to force Shell without a really good reason, as IOC shareholders know, PNG voters know and other companies planning on doing business in PNG know. Yup, the game is starting to heat up. Health and Happiness, p.s. RDS can take a flying leap p.s.s Still in Los Cabos Tree. Got two more days of tequilla and sunshine. You nailed it about the wife, lol, don’t think she will drink for the next three months. I am still operating with a fuzzy head though, perhaps explains my paranoid posts the past 10 days. |
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