Trying to piece together the picture for my own use so use or flush and apologies if this is redundant on this site. Tracking these wells and this company is very much likely playing the board game Clue. Lots of interesting facts, but mostly lots of missing facts. Here's some observations which are mostly repetition of what others have said from the PRs with a few of my interpretations and opinions thrown in from my long years of working in this business.
Raptor
It is the deepest of the exploration wells drilled to date. Seismic slides indicate it is below E/A and deeper than Deep Antelope. Planned vs. actual TD was 4500 m/ 4032 m. Clearly their seismic calibration was off; by almost 500 m. That's big. The Nov 14 presentation suggests that half of the well depth is Orubadi shale. If so, this may represent a worst case challenge for drilling as regards shale problems to date. They used managed pressure drilling to drill the well and I think they set 7" casing near the top or somewhat below the top of the limestone. However, they did not report any sidetracks here vs at least two at the much shallower Bocat 1 well (3208 m final TD). Being shallower likely mean less shale in Bobcat, but also higher pressures if the sediments were uplifted. So higher pressures, if present in Bobcat with the shales, could have made for the more difficult drilling of the two wells. Something to keep in mind for future wells. I think this uplifting and higher pressure mayin part be the reason for the delay in further drilling at Triceratops if memory of the seismic slides I saw serves me right.
Back to Raptor. As is well known this prospect was selected based on its greater likelihood of finding oil. The company is hunting for oil as a quicker path to recurring revenues and high profitability. The well was placed slightly off the highest point of structure as shown in the nearest seismic slide in the Nov 14 presentation, for at least 3 objectives that I am suggesting (not stated by IOC): (1) If they saw oil to the top of the structure, then they hit the mother lode in terms of oil volume calculations, (2) If not that then a good chance they would see a gas/oil contact; another key piece of info needed for volume determinations, (3) it looks like they drilled through the limestone to the fault at the base and may have popped out back into the Orubadi shale on bottom. I.e., of the 320 m open hole section, only ~200 m is limestone. That's another critical depth parameter for seismic calibration and reservoir model updating for volume calculations. So here at the very top of the reservoir only a very short test was necessary to confirm productive rock and fluid type and sampling. Apparently they didn't see oil, but the chemistry of the produced fluids is giving them strong convictions that oil may be at deeper depths. Also the pressure of the reservoir may be telling them there is oil below them simply because if it is all connected, and filled with gas from top to bottom, then the pressure at this penetration would be much higher than if filled with mostly oil which is much denser. So pressure alone can give them an idea of where the GOC may be. I suspect they left production tubing, packer and a tree on this well for two reasons. (1) to allow earlier movement of the rig to Antelope 5 before/during the testing on Raptor and (2) the "comprehensive appraisal" wells they are now planning for Raptor for 2015 needs the Raptor #1 well to remain connected to the reservoir throughout those operations. A pressure gauge will be run below the packer to record pressure waves transmitted through the reservoir rock while testing subsequent appraisal wells which will be downdip in the Raptor field. These pressure waves will be seen in the Raptor #1 well if the wells are in communication. These appraisal wells will be drilling even deeper through more Orubadi shale than Raptor 1 in order to penetrate the Kapau limestone which looks to be twice as thick downdip than at Raptor 1, e.g., 400+ m. So if you think Raptor 1 was hell, just wait and see what the appraisal drilling will bring. But we might be helped by a lower pressure gradient with the reservoir dipping deeper. In any case these weill(s) will be looking for oil and an oil water contact (OWC) or gas water contact (GWC) and connectivity to Raptor 1. For oil you want a strong water drive to maximize recovery. For gas, you don't want that. You want pure depletion drive.
So they don't "want to get ahead of ourselves" as Laurie said in the CC, but after my reassessment of the fine print and details, my convictions from their statements and the info are that this is potentially VERY LARGE. IMHO managers make statements like, "not wanting to get ahead of themselves" when they are really excited and think there is something potentially great ahead. It's their way of saying to themselves out loud, "calm down boy; control yourself; this looks tremendous but if you let those true emotions get out and you are wrong, you will look really silly and you will greatly disappoint yourself and lose credibility; there's still a lot of work to do but this looks really GREAT!!!." So that's my interpretation of what Laurie is saying to himself inside.He's jumping for joy inside but knows he can't do that in a CC and also knows there's some chance, but likely small (so he thinks) that he is wrong.
So what's more exciting to you? The E/A drilling and coming results or the Raptor future appraisal in 2015 or resuming Wahoo which has some heavy gas indications just above the target zone or the Triceratops appraisal well or the results on Bobcat logging/testing or drilling Deep Antelope or something else?. For me Raptor has jumped up into the E/A league of excitement. The tone on Bobcat has left me not expecting too much, but still hopeful. The others are little too immature at this point. Needless to say that for at least all of 2015 to come it's just a waiting game of much lower to no downside volatility. One can only guess where we will be this time next year. I have great expectations that we are on a somewhat slow but steady and continual climb UPWARD!. But it's time to just relax and be patient and "not get ahead of ourselves."
We're in the first minutes of the first quarter. Lot's of sloppy play and fumbles, but we did succeed in putting a few points on the board (Raptor). No absolute turnovers yet - Wahoo and Bobcat are still in play, despite several major sacks for big losses (suspension of Wahoo and sidetracks in Bobcat). But the game has a long way to go. Our offense is still maturing. Hoping we got the right guys on the field now and coaching on the sidelines. Here's some game stats:
Wahoo: Days since spud to now, Nov 22 - 259; Days since suspension - 131; Planned days - 60; Planned TD - unknown but is shallower than the others; natural gas flows including heavier ends to butane encountered in the Orubadi "mudstone" above the payzone. Planning to return to well ASAP in 2015 after long lead rig equipment arrives for higher pressures. Rig is remaining on site.
Raptor: Days from Spud to Discovery filing with gov't (and presumed end of production testing) - 231; Planned days - 90; Planned TD - 4500 m; Actual TD - 4032 m; Kapau Limestone logged - 200m, Open hole section below last casing - 330 m. Gas and condensate produced. No mention of crude oil. Discovery announced and filed; More appraisal to follow in 2015. Rig is moving to Antelope 5.
Bobcat: Days from Spud to now, Nov 22 - 262 (well is logging/testing the pay zone); Planned days - 90; Planned TD - 3134 m; Actual TD - 3208 m; Kapau Limestone logged - 320 m. No reports of HC's. Waiting on results announcement.
Antelope 4: Days from spud to now, Nov 22 - 67. Depth not announced but expected to be shallow and fast. Waiting on update.
Antelope 5: Still rigging up. Not spudded.
A happy and blessed Thanksgiving to all.
Kaliboo