OLD Shareholdersunite Stocks + Scorecard

Some (NQ, IOC, DSNY) have their own forum, others are featured below. Here are the SHU stock tips from Seeking Alpha. You'll see the date of recommendation, the price at which the recommendation was made, and a link to the article(s). A few duds (OCZ, STP), but not doing that bad overall...

InterOil IOC

InvenSense INVN

Ellie Mae ELLI

Universal Display Corporation OLED

Nokia NOK

Trina Solar TSL

ChipMos IMOS

ASM Litography ASML

Asure ASUR

Qualcomm QCOM

Suntech STP

OCZ

C-Trip CTRP

Zynga ZNGA

Destiny Media DSNY

Green Dot GDOT

SunPower SPWR

NQ Mobile NQ

22nd Century Group XXII

The score at the end of Jun 17 2013

1	IOC	2008	May 5	$25.75	$75.44	+192.97%
2	BVSN (Short)	2012	May 3	$50.73	$9.0	+82.26%
3	INVN		May 14	$11.88	$14.61	+22.98%
4	ELLI		May 21	$15.08	$24.49	+62.40%
5	PANL		May 30	$27.09	$27.17	+0.30%
6	NOK		Jun 6	$2.75	$3.69	+34.18%
7	TSL		Jun 7	$6.31	$6.23	-1.27%
8	IMOS		Jun 27	$9.6	$18.66	+96.46%
9	ASML		Jul 9	$48.46	$79.27	+63.58%
10	ASUR		Jul 11	$6.18	$5.84	-5.50%
11	QCOM		Jul 13	$54.98	$62.07	+12.90%
12	STP		Jul 19	$1.72	$1.00	-41.86%
13	OCZ		Jul 23	$5.61	$1.43	-74.51%
14	CTRP		Jul 27	$13.69	$34.89	+154.86%
15	ZNGA		Aug 6	$2.8	$2.87	+2.50%
16	DSNY		Aug 22	$0.82	$1.15	+40.24%
17	GDOT		Sept 17	$13	$19.21	+47.77%
18	SPWR		Sep 29	$4.4	$19.21	+336.59%
19	NQ	2013	April 15	$8.30	$8.02	-3.37%

There are two big negative performers here (in an otherwise fairly satisfying list):

Both of these companies ran into accounting "problems." It turned out that their financial position was considerably worse than they led investors belief at the time. This is very unfortunate, but very hard to avoid entirely, unless you are a forensic accountant willing to do very deep due dilligence. Suntech we basically chose because we saw room for cost cutting, and a ramp-up in China (and Japan) for solar panels, but we presented this as a possible turn-around story, indicating a degree of uncertainty here.

OCZ we chose as the leader of solid state drives (SSD's) and the ongoing shift from spinning (magnetic) hard disks towards SSD's. Although both Suntech and OCZ produce near commodity like products, but we had some hope that with the take-over of Indilinx OCZ would enjoy at least a modicum of pricing power and lessen their dependence on Sandforce (both Indilinx and Sandforce make controller chips for SSD's). We also thought there was a good chance for one of the hard-disk giants to wage a take-over of OCZ (and indeed, rumors were rife at the time of writing the article that Seagate was interested in doing just that.

STP's finances were already very precarious (which we did report), the margins for error were very slim indeed. Accounting troubles and the unexpected parting of the founder and CEO was too much.

Well, investing is about the future, and nasty surprises cannot be excluded, which is the main rationale for diversification. Overall, our recomendations have done reasonably well, we think.

This is all interesting, but what you want to know, no doubt is which ones will perform from here. Well:

Of course, if markets behave badly, these targets might not materialize. We're fairly sure about the first three (NQ, IOC, INVN), DSNY is more speculative, but on the other hand, it has more potential to yield more upside as well. A couple of orders for Clipstream G2 could take DSNY well beyond $2 a share. On the other hand, they have yet to close their first commercial contract for G2, but we think this is a matter of time.

IOC also has potentially much more upside (depending on impending deal metrics, exploration and appraisal success, possible take-over bids), but the visibility on these is a little limited still at this moment.

INVN is winning more and more clients (Apple is a strong possibility, we're fairly sure of that), we were already optimistic about this company for a year, but this optimism is increasing due to their technology leadership, growing market and more applications (motion stabilization for camera's could very well provide more traction).

Well, we recommended shares of ChipMos (IMOS) almost exactly a year ago at $9.6 and this morning they're at $20 for a comfortable double..

The score at the end of Jun 17 2013

	Ticker	Year	Date	Initiating poisition at	June17 2013	Return	July 13 2013	Return
1	IOC	2008	May 5	$25.75	$75.44	+192.97%	$75.15	+191.84%
2	BVSN (Short)	2012	May 3	$50.73	$9.0	+82.26%	$8.58	+83.09
3	INVN		May 14	$11.88	$14.61	+22.98%	$16.01	+34.76%
4	ELLI		May 21	$15.08	$24.49	+62.40%	$24.74	+64.06%
5	OLED		May 30	$27.09	$27.17	+0.30%	$28.51	+5.24%
6	NOK		Jun 6	$2.75	$3.69	+34.18%	$4.15	+50.91%
7	TSL		Jun 7	$6.31	$6.23	-1.27%	$6.87	+8.87%
8	IMOS		Jun 27	$9.6	$18.66	+96.46%	$18.91	+96.98%
9	ASML		Jul 9	$48.46	$79.27	+63.58%	$87.15	+79.84%
10	ASUR		Jul 11	$6.18	$5.84	-5.50%	$5.74	-7.07%
11	QCOM		Jul 13	$54.98	$62.07	+12.90%	$62.02	+12.80%
12	STP		Jul 19	$1.72	$1.00	-41.86%	$1.15	-32.85%
13	OCZ		Jul 23	$5.61	$1.43	-74.51%	$1.65	-70.59%
14	CTRP		Jul 27	$13.69	$34.89	+154.86%	$33.63	+145.65%
15	ZNGA		Aug 6	$2.8	$2.87	+2.50%	$3.50	+25%
16	DSNY		Aug 22	$0.82	$1.15	+40.24%	$1.33	+59.75%
17	GDOT		Sept 17	$13	$19.21	+47.77%	$19.87	+52.85%
18	SPWR		Sep 29	$4.4	$19.21	+336.59%	$25.95	+489.77%
19	NQ	2013	April 15	$8.30	$8.02	-3.37%	$9.58	+15.42%
20	XXII	2013	July 23	$1.09

XXII is already off to a raving start today, we forgot to provide a link to the introductory article. You'll see that there is really plenty of upside potential here, compared to which the risk of complete non-adoption (or a tobacco company coming up with a better alternative soon) seems to be rather modest.

Well, not even three full trading days later and XXII is already at $1.40, that's a 28% return...

We have five top picks (DSNY, NQ, IOC, INVN, XXII). The fourth of our top picks, INVN put out pretty decent figures after the close yesterday, the result is a bit of a buying wave: