[quote='AD123' pid='76627' dateline='1475151601']

if you plan on holding the XOM stock after receipt, i can understand you would like to get more shares.  But for those of us who plan to sell it immediately upon receipt, we receive the exact same amount of cash regardless fo the price.  Am i missing soimething?

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Yes, good grief.  You get stock, not cash.  The amount of stock you get is $45 worth at a 10-day average or $84.16 as of today or 0.53 shares of XOM per share of IOC.

 So if the transaction is today, and you sell immediately, you sell it at today's current market price of $86.90, or $46.47 per IOC share you traded in.  So if you sell immediately, what you get is totally dependent on the current market price.

'Stavros' pid='76629' datel Wrote:  BUTT why sell the XOM shares after the deal is consummated if the math says sell the IOC shares NOW?

Because if you sell IOC now, you will miss holding the CRPs. If you wait till closing and sell your XOM shares, you still retain the CRPS.

IOC / ExxonMobil share exchange ratio to be determined based on ExxonMobil’s 10-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) ending on the second trading day prior to the effective date of the transaction. 

If the deal closes tonight (big if?) yesterday's $86.90 doesn't matter.  Because of this delay the 9/8 price of $89.05 is no longer in the 10 average.  Shareholders would get the lowest average price of XOM (more shares) if the deal closes tonight.

'Gator' pid='76635' datel Wrote:

IOC / ExxonMobil share exchange ratio to be determined based on ExxonMobil’s 10-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) ending on the second trading day prior to the effective date of the transaction. 

If the deal closes tonight (big if?) yesterday's $86.90 doesn't matter.  Because of this delay the 9/8 price of $89.05 is no longer in the 10 average.  Shareholders would get the lowest average price of XOM (more shares) if the deal closes tonight.

This is my hope, but how long would it take after a court ruling to actually close?  What do they actually have to accopmplish to get it closed?

'2126' pid='76633' datel Wrote:

'Stavros' pid='76629' datel Wrote:  BUTT why sell the XOM shares after the deal is consummated if the math says sell the IOC shares NOW?

Because if you sell IOC now, you will miss holding the CRPs. If you wait till closing and sell your XOM shares, you still retain the CRPS.

Correct.  The decision is between a $5.70 premium over the sales price of $45 (at this moment) if sold now, versus $45 in XOM stock plus a CRP that is presently valued by Mr Market at $5.70,  but which may someday be worth anywhere between ZERO and (if memory serves me reasonably well) about $24.

In other words, do you want to invest/speculate AGAIN that IOC will somehow perform positively for you?

Here's the bad news update.

Here's the latest 10 day volume weighted average price calculation.  The weighted average price of XOM is up $3.05 per share since the hearing date on 9/27/16.  The 10 day volume weighted average price has gone up every single day since then.  Could it be that XOM hired PM to file a lawsuit on the deal when it appeared that XOM price was tanking, in order to buy time for the price to recover and thereby pay a lot less for IOC?  Not likely, but if they did, they are brilliant!

'AD123' pid='76627' dateline='<a href="tel:1475151 Wrote:

if you plan on holding the XOM stock after receipt, i can understand you would like to get more shares.  But for those of us who plan to sell it immediately upon receipt, we receive the exact same amount of cash regardless fo the price.  Am i missing soimething?

Yes you are missing it.  You are not getting $45 per share in XOM shares.  You are getting $45 of the 10 day volume weighted average price counted up to 2 days before the closing date.  So that will be a different number than the closing market price the day you get the shares. The average price has climbed every day since the hearing.  As long as shares keep climbing you don't lose money.  But if the price starts falling again then the shares will cost more than market.  If you have to sell immediately then you get a loss vs market price.

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