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+--- Thread: Antelope-3 spud , this week end (/showthread.php?tid=1702)
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - jft310 - 09-28-2012
I would think this is a relatively low risk well and pretty straight forward drill. No where near $50 million needed. And yes the most recent report from GCA stated IOC with two more wells at E/A could increase reservoir estimates. See PNG Industry News article for more confirmation.
Is a loan done for $100 million??? The IOC Board sees a source of funds.
If I remember right the agreement with the govt requires the wells be spudded to keep the leases. This weekend check off another box.
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - TxPm - 09-28-2012
So here is my question... Looking at this from the standpoint of 1) IOC 2) Bidders do you try and wrap up a deal before the results or after or is it irrelevant and bidding will be fished pre-results. From IOC's perspective an increase in reserve estimates would certainly mean higher bid prices & could force some of the bidders that are "second guessing" reserves to "Up" their bid. On the flip side is Elk-3 comes in below estimates does this cause top bidders to lower their offers. From a Bidders perspective if Elk-3 does increase reserves you risk having to increase your bids at the same time though another big drilling success would just confirm for top bidders the quality of the asset.
With all that being said and given that IOC hasn't had a "Miss" yet on its wells I fully expect Elk-3 to exceed expectations but I do think this could delay the bid process even more. I still fully expect almost everything (NEC approval, FEED, FID) to be completed by ENd of Year
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Palm - 09-28-2012
'ValueSleuth' pid='10445' datel Wrote:A refinery loan can be completely independent of the LNG project. There is ZERO reason to believe that a relatively immaterial prespudding announcement would be made if/when a highly material event such as a sell down or NEC approval had been obtained is not made. Let's be real, here. VS
The thing is this is an article without an author and with no mention of where this came from. No quotes from management; no quotes from ANYONE. This is not any kind of "announcement", but can only be taken as heresay. As of yet there is no PR from IOC and they usually announce officially once the spudding has already taken place. This is likely a leak from the investor "tour" that is taking place this weekend. On the trip over there may have been a mention that they are hoping to spud Ant 3 this weekend and that was slipped to the janitor at PNGIndustrynews.
Also, this isn't necessarily the refinery loan, though the timing seems right. PRE is also awaiting their being added to the license and when that is granted they are to kick in the next wad of cash. If that is ready for approval the cash could be in the coffers very quickly.
Any of these events, including NEC approval, could come at any time, but nothing is official until it comes from an IOC PR.
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - jft310 - 09-28-2012
The company has stated all bidders agree to 9 T's. So think this spud is a save the leases play more then anything else. Saving the leases adds value . I can't imagine Dave Holland missing this one. If a bidder I would be more comfortable with this well being drilled and make me more determined to win. The winner will pay IOC partially out of assets produced. If lower assets they pay less over time. If more they pay more
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Getitrt2 - 09-29-2012
People keep forgetting IOC essentially had more than $20 million in unrestricted cash at quarter end; more than that amount additional, from past accumulated earnings and operating cash flow, was "hidden away" in the working capital credit facilities being used to reduce interest costs there. They now have also generated almost another quarter's worth of operating cash flow, without drilling going on, since then. They are also confident now that the new secured financing is a done deal, with only formalities to complete, at which time we should get a news release. I also believe it reflects confidence about additional cash from PRE and from a sell down deal in the foreseeable future, which would be the "asset sales" referred to in the financials. They have obligations to spud these two wells by November, but I think it is positive they are not waiting until then.
Sam is right about paying off the OPIC loan. The Mitsui loan is probably an unsecured loan.
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Bincbanker - 09-29-2012
getitrt and Sam , my point is :
Without a Gulf NEC blessing no drilling so no spudding
lets forget the finances, common sense dictates with this elephant in the room you would want to get this out of the way first , especially because it is achievable on short notice
All that follows , will become easier and cheaper to obtain
You guys sometimes forget in all your wisdom to think simple , LOL
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Palm - 09-29-2012
Binck, not sure the NEC approval has any bearing on spudding Ant 3 and Elk 3. Those are license requirements and independent of NEC approval. The well program is agreed on with DPE and they have no choice but to proceed unless they want to risk losing licenses. Unlike others I think IOC is on very good terms now with the government, BUT I think they also are on a bit of a tight leash. Things got off track once (not entirely IOC's doing) and PNG needs all developers to abide by licenses and approvals. I think IOC working very closely now with the government is a requirement of getting NEC approval of the project. What that means as far as the bidding/SD process is tough to say. It almost appears as though the BOD first reviews/approves things, then the recommendation is taken to O'Neill for comment/feedback. That's where Sir Rabbie is invaluable. Any final bids better be something that NEC will swallow like a sugar-coated piece of candy. But spudding of wells is not something the NEC is necessarily controlling as long as what's being done falls in line with the PRL.
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Bincbanker - 09-29-2012
officially it does not have any bearing
But as CEO would you not after all this time (and this pertains to bankers as well) want to have the official standpoint of the Gov't before you sink in more money
Just plain and simple , no legality issues , just after all the BS IOC has gone thru and after all the hints at the Gulf project being SO IMPORTANT to the gov't economy for the next 40 years.
A common sense thing
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Palm - 09-29-2012
It is a common sense thing as far as fulfilling license requirements. That's one thing I've always thought IOC has done well. Through all of the crap that has gone on they have plowed ahead with seismic work, built roads/platforms/staging areas for the project, drilled wells based on strategic seismic-work, authorized project spending so that when they get a partner a lot of the work has already been done. Elk 4, Ant1, Ant 2 and T2 have all been successes, especially the horizontal drilling of Ant 2 and T2. The resources that have been proven up with these finds blows away most other wells on a /mcf basis. Ant 3 will be no different. Really like that they are moving ahead on this spudding; Ant 3 is as close to a slam dunk as far as what results will be as anything a company can invest in.
Jed Clampett could hit this one blindfolded
RE: Antelope-3 spud , this week end - Bincbanker - 09-29-2012
without NEC approval , no bids, no deals and the beautiful plowed field will look good but will not produce
But I'm Dutch so what do I know