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RE: Dilemma - Optionray - 01-28-2013

'dorr9352' pid='16677' datel Wrote:Hi Option, Although I can understand your reason of concern, I believe your overthinking what may happen with PPS. Best off to relax a little bit, use the KISS method, and enjoy a gradual rise in PPS through to end of month and a greater PPS increase after that point. Granted there may be a slight pullback during week of expiration to a level depending on where Max pain is, but from now until then and thereafter I fully expect a positive increase in PPS. Will most likely go up to 66 -70 for next week to week and a half, then retreat to 62 area for week of expiration and then rise to 70 - 75 by end of month. The way I see it, all is good, and while I do not expect it to go straight up (barring unexpected news) I think its extremely favorable to increase positively through to end of month. We will probably start to see greater price swings each day this month than we have recently though. Sit tight and be happy. Just my opinion, for what its worth. Best to ya.

75 is my target too by the end of February, with a pop to 100 sometime in March.  Of course, I've been overly optimistic in the past and that might be why I may be overthinking the shorts strategy.  I can't think of a time in the past where I have been as confident as I am today, However, it seems everytime I get too optimistic those darn shorts pull a rabbit out of the hat.  Of course, this could be the time where they don't.  Geeze, after 7 years with IOC, it's got to happen sooner than later. I've talked about IOC to my wife for so long, she is now getting me coffee cups and baseball hats for Christmas and Birthdays that have letters IOC on them.  I've even thought about getting a personalized tag that says IOC@150




RE: Dilemma - dorr9352 - 01-28-2013

Your a very lucky man Option to have such an understanding wife like you do, shes a keeper! I quit discussing IOC with mine a couple of years ago, she did not understand as well, or more likely I wasn't able to explain our investment in IOC well enough for her to see the big pic., anyway I have stayed in and hope to pleasantly surprise her within the near future. I would sure enjoy a cup of coffee in the morning from an IOC cup! Got a B-day coming in July, maybe this next month will be the right time to request that as a B-day gift. Thanks. Goodluck to you and all.


RE: Dilemma - Optionray - 02-02-2013

'Optionray' pid='16676' datel Wrote:

What a Dilemma!  Over the next 5 weeks, you / I might expect the PPS to increase, but what if it starts to get driven down?  Is that a buying opportunity because the shorts are trying to artifically drive down the price so that they may cover (similiar to last weeks action).  Or, is it because they are aware of something that we longs aren't aware of yet?

You could/might also think that they (shorts) may let the PPS rise, so that they have an opportunity to short again at a higher level, but wouldn't that be kinda risky, especially if there is a short squeeze or a buy out, ultimately triggering margin calls?.

 Just strategizing  if I should hold tight with my current position, or start loading when/if the shorts try to drive the price down in a last ditch effort.  - What are you going to do?

Looks like I'm buying!




RE: Dilemma - wapitidropiti - 02-02-2013

'Optionray' pid='16941' datel Wrote:

'Optionray' pid='16676' datel Wrote:

What a Dilemma!  Over the next 5 weeks, you / I might expect the PPS to increase, but what if it starts to get driven down?  Is that a buying opportunity because the shorts are trying to artifically drive down the price so that they may cover (similiar to last weeks action).  Or, is it because they are aware of something that we longs aren't aware of yet?

You could/might also think that they (shorts) may let the PPS rise, so that they have an opportunity to short again at a higher level, but wouldn't that be kinda risky, especially if there is a short squeeze or a buy out, ultimately triggering margin calls?.

 Just strategizing  if I should hold tight with my current position, or start loading when/if the shorts try to drive the price down in a last ditch effort.  - What are you going to do?

Looks like I'm buying!

I'm not buying but I am holding on until we monetize E/A




RE: Dilemma - will2bgreat - 02-03-2013

Folks,

I am not an options expert so I have a question.  Are th shorts getting hurt by a short squeeze?  My thoughts are that if the shorts are hedged in cheap out of the money calls, isn't it in the shorts best interest for the stock to go down in price or for the stock to skyrocket in price?  It seems they can make money if the stock goes down, or if the stock goes up dramatically.  It seems a stagnant stock price is the worst for the shorts.  Just my simple thoughts; I'm I wrong?

Good luck longs.




RE: Dilemma - jft310 - 02-04-2013

How the shorts are positioned would determine the hurt degree.
-The shorts pay to borrow shares. Borrow price is 5% annually last time I checked. Not such a big price.
-If the shorts are Long out of the money calls on IOC those erode in value and they could be losing money.
-If the shorts are Short out of the money and IOC stays flat those calls erode in valus and they make money. Think Eric thats his bet. He brags he is short March $80 and March $100 calls at this time.
-If the shorts are long puts and IOC rises they lose money.
-If the shorts are short puts ans IOC stays flat they can make money.
Way to many posibilites for generalizations.


RE: Dilemma - dorr9352 - 02-04-2013

I am not concerned as much about the pps from now until Feb 28th, the true dilemma for me is what the pps will do after an announcement of a SD, as many others have mentioned here. The unknown action will be upon the final announcement of a SD to a SM, will surely result in a pop up in PPS, but thereafter the initial pop, there will be numerous sell-offs by retail holders and surely some bigger investment funds. Many will take advantage of this opportunity to cash in. I am hoping that just as many if not more, who have been "Waiting to see it happen before they put money in" finally step in to support the higher level of PPS and hold it up untill IOC can get rolling with more wells spud and development. We should also get some strong upgrades after SD, so that should help exposure too. My best goes out to all who are invested in IOC, for whatever term they are invested. In the end we all win in our own way. Good Luck!