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Article deleted from Upstreamonline – a confirmation of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - Printable Version

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RE: irmation of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - Movieguy - 08-09-2013

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

JFT, I think one can reasonably believe both that they should "do it right because this deal will change IOC forever"...and at the same time also believe that this has taken quite a long time.  At some point, will the unending, optimistic, supportive explanations ring hollow even to you?  

If the major points were agreed upon months ago, we should have a deal by now.  I do not buy the theory that routine drafting by the lawyers (even on a very complex deal) can't be accomplished in a period of two months.  I think there is likely another explanation that is more complex than "they are just trying to get it right".  One possible explanation might be that they are simultaneously engaged in buyout negotiations and are therefore intentionally waiting to finalize the XOM deal.  This is obviously just one pssible explanation, but as each additional day passes, I'm more convinced it isn't just an issue of drafting the language.     

[/quote]

What he said.




RE: irmation of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - Ass0ciatedPress - 08-09-2013

JFT,

I've never played options nor do I ever plan on playing options. I've been in this stock since 2006 and have acquired more shares over the years. I'm not sure why I always need to state that whenever I express one bit of resentment in how slow this process has taken. I just don't understand why IOC and Exploration company is not exploring. We're sitting on a treasure trove of prospects and are now waiting. We've shut down all other negotiations to focus on one with XOM and as such are at their beck and call to in essence provide natural gas for an expansion of their plant.  Gulf LNG "remains a possibility" but the story continues to change and all the while the world keeps spinning and deals are being made by other companies in all regions and areas.   The deal could be complex but we aren't talking about colonizing Mars here. Others have done it, are doing it and will do it in the future.

Thus concludes my quarterly frustration rant.

-CL




RE: deleted from Upstreamonline – a confirmation of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - calaban48 - 08-09-2013

'TxPm' pid='26771' datel Wrote:For those of you starting to feel a little anxious I thought this article may help: http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/115462

Thanks, Tex, for that fascinating thread. A good read.




RE: irmation of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - Petrovale - 08-09-2013

'Ass0ciatedPress' pid='26774' datel Wrote:

JFT,

Thus concludes my quarterly frustration rant.

-CL

I like your quarterly rant, Crap.
But how do you know that IOC is not currently negotiating a Gulf LNG deal???



of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - jft310 - 08-09-2013

'TxPm' pid='26771' dateline='<a href="tel:1375970 Wrote:For those of you starting to feel a little anxious I thought this article may help: http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/115462

interoil will add assets to its balance sheet and have off the wall cash flow. If you have never worked on a deal with Exxon how can one ever know how long it should take. Who art you to judge speed of a multi billion dollar  deal. The first deal is the hardest this deal is almost done.




RE: of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - CAC - 08-09-2013

If you have never worked on a deal with Exxon how can one ever know how long it should take. Who art you to judge speed of a multi billion dollar  deal. The first deal is the hardest this deal is almost done.

++++++++++++++++++++

I'll ask you the reverse question...how do you know that it isn't too long?  Neither of us really know.  But your M.O. is "blind trust", whereas mine is to question everything and consider all possibilities.  If followed, your logic (that we should not be able to form an opinion on timing because we've never been involved in a deal with XOM before) would presumably prevent us from discussing this question after 3 months...and after 6 months too.     




RE: of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - Dmarque - 08-09-2013

'CAC' pid='26778' datel Wrote:

If you have never worked on a deal with Exxon how can one ever know how long it should take. Who art you to judge speed of a multi billion dollar  deal. The first deal is the hardest this deal is almost done.

++++++++++++++++++++

I'll ask you the reverse question...how do you know that it isn't too long?  Neither of us really know.  But your M.O. is "blind trust", whereas mine is to question everything and consider all possibilities.  If followed, your logic (that we should not be able to form an opinion on timing because we've never been involved in a deal with XOM before) would presumably prevent us from discussing this question after 3 months...and after 6 months too.     

OK you kids KNOCK it off!!!  Otherwise I'm going to tell  your father to turn the car around and head back home.  There will be NO DISNEYLAND for either of you!!




Article deleted from Upstreamonline – a confirmation of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - kommonsents - 08-09-2013

While speculation about what is going on with only hints and tidbits of information and a lot of reading between the lines is fun, it clears nothing up for me.

There is a lot of potential answers as to why it is taking so long and the correct answers may not have even been discussed yet. IOC could be working on two, three or more deals, all interlocking, that may require tweaking in order to finally mesh with all parties. We just don't know.

What we do know is that IOC has some solid assets and they will be monetized soon, if for no other reason, than that they are cheap to buy and the demand is over-subscribed.

One or more deals will be announced in the near future, IMHO, and so I wait.

It looks like we will make new highs soon and that will further validate IOC.




RE: of Shell’s plans to acquire IOC? - sydbod - 08-09-2013

'jft310' pid='26777' datel Wrote:

...... If you have never worked on a deal with Exxon how can one ever know how long it should take.......

jft is totally correct here. I know the impression is one of , drill a hole in ground to the gas, pipe it out to a preprocessing (lpg stripping) plant, pipe it to an LNG plant.

How hard can it be to figure out the cost of this and then determine a price that all parties are happy with for the gas. 1 month or maybe 2 months ??? ....

It is just not all that simple, all you have to do is look at the PNGLNG environmental impact statement to see the huge complexity around a LNG plant design.

http://www.pnglng.com/media/pdfs/environment/eis_chapter02.pdf

On Pg: 6 you can see the table for the production forecasts for the PNGLNG plant.

All decisions evolve around economics and time. To bring IOC gas on line faster it may impact on the  arrangements cost and times for the current gas sources, so PNGLNG would want the IOC gas at a lower price, but IOC gets money earlier. If IOC is prepared to wait a little longer and get payment later so that the current gas sheduling does not get impacted, then IOC may get a higher price at a later time interval. There are almost an infinite range of what/if situations that have to be worked through by both parties involved and then when an agreement is finally reached everything has to be buttoned down in a very carefully drafted document. Big deals take a long time to do properly.




Known vs Unknown - Ass0ciatedPress - 08-09-2013

'kommonsents' pid='26780' datel Wrote:

While speculation about what is going on with only hints and tidbits of information and a lot of reading between the lines is fun, it clears nothing up for me. There is a lot of potential answers as to why it is taking so long and the correct answers may not have even been discussed yet. IOC could be working on two, three or more deals, all interlocking, that may require tweaking in order to finally mesh with all parties. We just don't know. What we do know is that IOC has some solid assets and they will be monetized soon, if for no other reason, than that they are cheap to buy and the demand is over-subscribed. One or more deals will be announced in the near future, IMHO, and so I wait. It looks like we will make new highs soon and that will further validate IOC.

Kommon,

You're right they "could" be working on multiple deals like you said that are all interlocking but we have no idea. The only thing we know is that Interoil entered exclusive negotations with XOM months ago and that "the major terms" have been agreed to. We have not been drilling all year, and its my understanding further delineation wells will be necessary to firm up E/A numbers. Driling takes time, especially in the jungles of PNG. We are not drilling Triceratops and with each passing day we grow closer to 2014. It would be quite an unfortunate set of events if 2013 is just a wash because the lawyers are sending papers back and forth rereading the same documents over and over again while our rigs sit idle, and our resources in 2013 are the same as 2012 because of lack of drilling.  Seems like a dramtically lost opportunity to me with some many prospects in the fold and "jewels" yet to be discovered in our portfolio.

Regarding your comments that our resources are "cheap to buy" and "demand is oversubscribed" I certainly hope that those aren't knowns. It was my understanding that we have been seeking a premium on our natural gas because of the condensates, low cost and proficient flowing wells. Now if that is no longer the case that I'm even more confused as to what has taken so long.

 I know I'm in the minority here, I recognize and understand that.