'CAC' pid='27848' datel Wrote:

'tarulestheday' pid='27845' datel Wrote:

'Movieguy' pid='27844' datel Wrote:As Resource says, the Shell bid was weeks ago.  I have heard the board has met since then.

Not to pile on and create a circular rumor, but I have also heard that the BOD met recently. I would assume that removing the exclusivity would have to be a BOD decision and not just at Dr. Mike's whim. The question then would be what event forced the BOD to remove XOM's exclusivity? A new (higher) Shell bid is a very plausible explanation.

This is not a big stretch, we know that Shell bid against XOM originally.

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I know I'm now getting into speculative territory here but my guess is that something unexpected happened (maybe a bid by someone or maybe a bad turn in the negotiations) between the date of the CC and the subsequent announcement...as opposed to it being a simple expiration of a predetermined length of time for the exclusivity. 

My basis for this is Hession's response when asked, during the CC, why the press release didn't include the word "exclusive".  He almost seemed annoyed at the question and responded curtly that they were still exclusive...with no elaboration.  I took that to mean the status quo was still in effect and maybe even that he expected it to remains so.  If he knew, at the time, that the contractual exclusivity period was going to naturally expire in two days, it is possible he might have mentioned that...or at least answered it in a less robust fashion...to avoid giving the public information he knew would only be accurate for two more days.  I could be reaching on this.          

Having no reason to doubt what Resourcearb and others are saying, I agree with most of what you say.  But I do believe that when management agreed to go with exclusive negotiations, based on the Exxon exec's comments that they fully expected the negotiations to go quickly, IOC management had that same expectation.  Because the 15th is a common deadline (along with the 30th/31st) I believe that it was either the original or extended deadline at which point the exclusivity could end or be extended based on both parties needing to agree to extend.  Assuming Shell and/or others did submit a bid "recently" it must have been something that gave management an "out" they desired, should they want to end exclusivity.  Assuming all of this Hession was speaking the trusth when on the 13th he said talks were still exclusive, but he had no obligation to say on the 15th they would end because until the clock struct 12:00 AM Friday the 16th Exxon talks were still on.  And if people understand the negotiation game, most deals are struck very close to the end of a deadline because at that point final sticking points can suddenly disappear.  Bluffing or not, Exxon's bluff has been called and it sounds like for good reason.  Now exclusivity is off; probably for the best, and assuming the above IOC properly has disclosed its end.

Now we see if MH will earn his stripes and his options.

'Stavros' pid='27841' datel Wrote:If Shell submitted a meaningful bid "recently" it seems to me that it would be incumbent upon the IOC Board of Directors to have a face-to-face meeting of at least 2 days to hear all the details and decide how to proceed. Are they meeting any time soon R-arb? Thanks as always for your keen insights and

I think the CEO would make the BOD aware of the proposal, but would review the details and discuss it with Shell or whoever before getting the BOD involved for any kind of decision making.

Another thought:  A proposal from Shell or other company could be for a project for gas beyond that for a third XOM train.

In any case I agree the end of exclusivity should be impetus for XOM to complete a contract asap.

I think we have hear this before.

'Stavros' pid='27841' datel Wrote:If Shell submitted a meaningful bid "recently" it seems to me that it would be incumbent upon the IOC Board of Directors to have a face-to-face meeting of at least 2 days to hear all the details and decide how to proceed. Are they meeting any time soon R-arb? Thanks as always for your keen insights and

Stavros is giving clues. Yes the BOD met recently. Also true there is a face to face meeting on the horizon. Is the offer from Shell?? If so what does that do Exxon and their bid??Rumors out there about Woodside might want a slice of the pie. Is the new deal a farm out partnership? Or a deal for PRL 15 assets partial or full??

IOC mgt stated to me recently that the govt was very supportive of IOC's actions,and they will have something to say soon about Interoil's deals.

The hold up with Exxon has been definition of a term, the commercial aspects of the deal. How that comes out is not known. Interesting OSH isn't sure they will even get a slice of the third train. See OSH posts on the board. What implications does that have for IOC ???

It's all coming together exactly when is unknown.Patience is required because this affects IOC for next 25-30 years Quote end Quote IOC mgt.