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+--- Thread: What's to be excited about? (/showthread.php?tid=480)
- Spartina - 03-08-2012
Thanks for the effort petreng, you are a valued asset to this discussion I know I speak for many when I say how grateful we are for your expertise.
- petrengr1 - 03-08-2012
Thanks H.... I hope you are sleeping better than I am. It gives me something to do.
- sageo - 03-08-2012
Efi4-You mentioned a sell down on your recent post.Please forgive my math skills(or lack thereof)but I was wndering--If we do a SD for 20-30% of our 58+% of E/A and took a 4 year payout, wouldn't we have several hundred millon per year to increase our seismic and drilling operations?
- efi426hemi - 03-08-2012
Hi Sageo,
Yep, you 100% get my point. Using some quick, off the top of my head calculations: oodles of gas * nice wicked price/mcf * IOC ownership * percent sell down = a whole sheetload of cash for exploration. So if I plug in the following #'s: IOC sells 10% at 2.5/mcf I think I get 1.17 billion. Yup a whole sheetload of cash.
Okay, seriously, if you want to see what a real thorough valuation is, go to sltibbs brilliant post below (many thanx for taking the time sir!) - download as excel so you can play with the numbers - and you will get the most accurate results possible.
Specifically look at cell H31 for price/mcf and cell F37 for estimated fair value. Then take F37 and multiply by whatever sell down percent you want.
When you play around with these numbers (which Mr. Tibbs points out may be conservative) you get the sense of why I am willing to give up my weekday M&M's.
Health and Happiness, fwiw and PDYOR,
efi
http://shareholdersunite.com/forums/topic/fcf-analysis-of-ea-comments-welcome/
- sageo - 03-08-2012
efi=Hi there.Thanks for your reply.When playing with some of the numbers,I think about the movie where Matthew McCaunihey(sp)threw out all the colored M&Ms and just ate the brown ones.(Sandra Bullock(sp?)too.If we just keep Mr.Tibb's" brown numbers"(most conserative ones),as Pet says in one of his posts,"I get excited!" H and H to you also
- TomCrooz - 03-09-2012
If you are referring to "Maid in Manhatten", that was J Lo not Bullock. I chum around with these people and want proper credit lol
- sageo - 03-09-2012
Tom C-You are correct,of course My bad.I guess I was so impressed with Tibb's numbers,that I got "my girls" mixed up.GLTY.
- Getitrt2 - 03-09-2012
Pet, why problems sleeping? Are you worried about T2, or is it just normal anxiety approaching the critical point of first real information as you drill into a formation? Or something else about IOC, or just personal?
- petrengr1 - 03-09-2012
I was just kidding Harry a little. I sleep like a baby i.e. wake up crying every hour. No I am not worried about T-2. It is a slam dunk. Just a little excited about all of the upcoming announcements, including the results of T-2, such as tests, logs, cores etc. and eventually a resource update, government approval of Gulf project, FID, sell down, farm out agreements.........
- Palm - 03-09-2012
I think Harry is probably sleeping very well. No reason the rest of us shouldn't either. Should be a fun spring.