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Halted with news pending - Printable Version

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RE: Halted with news pending - GraniteGrab - 10-25-2013

'admin' pid='30186' datel Wrote:So we have MW arguing their security software is crap and like spyware but we have Westcoast labs saying it's top software. I also simply can't imagine the likes of America Movil (and a host of other partners) haven't extensively tested it...

I agree and appreciate the additional information.  I am left scratching my head.  I would love to hear how some of you more intense traders work with and use washsale rules to your advantage especially dealing with options.  If this thing Gaps back up i am going to be frustrated but i had to close out of everything




RE: Halted with news pending - SamAdams - 10-25-2013

You're exactly right. The tactic is to turn on the fire hose so you can't possibly digest the information. Fear then rules.


RE: Halted with news pending - pwalk - 10-25-2013

'SamAdams' pid='30183' datel Wrote:

I have met Omar a number of times, as recently as this past August and May.  I do not believe the report.  I also don't believe that they would have gotten a bond deal done withe the likes of DB and MS if the fraud was so obvious.  Typically the debt deals face a much higher level of DD.

Sam, I have never had the opportunity to meet Omar, but he is the main reason I overlooked the fact that NQ was a chinese company.  Is it possible he gotten taken also?  That is hard to believe.  It hopefully was just an opportunity for a lot of the shorts to buy back their short positions as the stock fell today.....




RE: Halted with news pending - admin - 10-25-2013

Yes, like I thought, the company will deliver a blow by blow denial tomorrow before opening.

["DALLAS and BEIJING, Oct. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- NQ Mobile (NQ) takes any false allegations regarding our business extremely seriously. NQ Mobile will respond quickly, transparently and forcefully to these false allegations regarding our company. The Company will issue a more detailed response before the market open in the U.S. on Friday, October 25."]

Interesting day ahead..


RE: Halted with news pending - SamAdams - 10-25-2013

Omar is the real deal. Company just announced they will respond to the false accusations before the markets open tomorrow.


RE: Halted with news pending - tradestar2012 - 10-25-2013

Skimmed through the report.

They are fixated on market share and yidatong and the cash balance. Its a weird report. The market share question has been around for a while. Everyone claims to be #1. Plus their claims of Frost & Sullivan being a paid shill is pretty thin. F&S is a fairly well respected research organization used all over the street. Sino MR is part of a german research conglomerate as well. Also PJ and Cannacord have done channel checks before and on the ground interviews with customers. So I'm not sure why there is such a huge discrepancy, but I'm still not sold on MW's market share claims. They also claim operational fraud and financial fraud but then say that they do not think the cfo (current and prior) are culpable. You cannot do fraud without the finance guys involved. The prior CFO has been with the company for 3-4yrs and is staying as an adviser. The new cfo has covered them as a banker for some time and recently joined them. Theres no gain to perpetuating fraud for either of them.

Anyhow, theres a serious logical error to MW's claims. They claim that Feiliu is a pass through for them to commit fraud but it doesnt make sense to pay feiliu in almost all stock and tie the 2 entities up vs. paying cash so that the fraud is easier to maintain. Plus paying cash allows them to "legitimately" pull cash out of the business. Plus the feiliu deal was heavily driven by earnouts that paid over 2-3yrs. Plus if NQ was going to defraud investors, why raise the minimum $172.5M from the convert (the $172.5 was the absolute minimum they could do and still get tier 1 banks to syndicate). They could have done probably up to $200-225M if they wanted to stretch. The convert sizing is primarily limited by the marketcap of the company. At $1.1Bn, a 20% convert would have been doable. That would have given them even more runway to take money.

They question the cash balance. saying PWC was sloppy. I'm not sure what the implications are. My guess is thats easy to substantiate the cash balance. The difference between lvl1 and lvl2 is a concern. I wonder why they would park the cash in semi-illiquid investments. The only thing I can think of is if the cash is held in term deposits or CDs or some sort of cash like deposit that is not 100% liquid.

Also, management has a voluntary lockup. They would not have been able to keep the fraud going with out tipping their hands by breaking the lockup. The lockup lasts for another year so I suppose the $172.5 could have been used to give them some time, but its not like they could have unwound their positions over night.

The report is interesting. I need to do more research on it. I think the one damaging item is Yitadong. The prior relationships between NQ and Yitadong were disclosed in prior filings so its nothing new. I have asked IR about yitadong w/re to revenue recognition in the past and have not gotten a satisfactory answer. Usually its because its a 3rd party company and they do not have access to Yitadong's internal information and can't comment on 3rd party vendors. If they can explain yitadong and the cash balance, then the rest of the report loses relevance.


RE: Halted with news pending - admin - 10-25-2013

Ok, thanks for that, Tradestar. Much appreciated.


RE: Halted with news pending - Gator - 10-25-2013

The short interest as of 10/15 was up over 1 million additional.

NQ Mobile Plunges on Short Seller Muddy Waters ‘Fraud’ Call 2013-10-24 18:51:20.149 GMT By Belinda Cao Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- NQ Mobile Inc., a Chinese mobile- security service provider, sank the most on record after Muddy Waters LLC called the company a “massive fraud.” NQ Mobile dropped as much as 63 percent to $8.46 in New York, the most since the company’s initial public offering in May 2011, before trading was suspended. Shares were up 279 percent this year as of yesterday. Muddy Waters, a research firm founded by short seller Carson Block, initiated coverage of NQ Mobile with a strong sell rating. Block gained fame for his short-selling calls after regulators halted trading in four of the first five companies he targeted starting in June 2010. NQ raised on Aug. 12 its 2013 revenue estimate to as much as $188 million from the upper limit of its prior forecast of $184 million, after second-quarter adjusted profit more than doubled. “We believe it is a zero,” Block, wrote in an e-mailed report today on NQ Mobile. “At least 72 percent of NQ’s purported 2012 China security revenue is fictitious.” Kim Titus, a Dallas-based spokesman with NQ Mobile, declined to comment when contacted by phone by Bloomberg News, saying he first needed to see the report. NQ’s market share in China is about 1.5 percent, versus the approximate 55 percent it reports, Block wrote. The company’s China paying user base is less than 250,000, versus the six million NQ claims. Shorts Double The company, which has added online games and a music search application to its services, released NQ Live, a mobile Internet platform that can be customized, Jun Zhang, an analyst at Wedge Partners Corp., wrote in a report this week. “NQ claims to generate international revenue in obscure markets, and through mysterious counterparties that seem to seldom pay,” Block Wrote. Muddy Waters said in a June 2011 that Sino-Forest Corp., a Chinese plantation company listed in Canada, exaggerated its revenue. Sino-Forecast filed for bankruptcy protection the following year. Short interest in NQ has doubled since July to a record 11 million shares at the end of September, according to the exchange data. Beijing-based NQ said in December that a report by short seller FJE Research claiming the company inflated its user based was incorrect. Gotham City Research said that as much as 25 percent of NQ’s business is overstated, according to a post on Twitter. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank AG helped NQ Mobile raise $173 million in a private placement of convertible bonds on Oct. 9. The conversion price was about $25.61 per ADR.




RE: Halted with news pending - admin - 10-25-2013

We get a CC in the morning before market opens, no less..
That is encouraging. It seems that they're not afraid to answer questions..


RE: Halted with news pending - tradestar2012 - 10-25-2013

Frauds do not face investors head to head. This should be an interesting call tomorrow.