+- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb)
+-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: InterOil Forum (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=4)
+--- Thread: What's the elephant in the room? (/showthread.php?tid=5425)
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - Putncalls - 12-07-2013
At 1.29/MCF iocs stake is worth 145$/share I figure.
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - TomCrooz - 12-07-2013
'Putncalls' pid='33258' datel Wrote:
'TomCrooz' pid='33254' datel Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33236' datel Wrote:Dr Mike stated that they are very excited about the new prospect in PRL 15 that may be as large or larger than EA. The label "elephant" makes sense if it's bigger than an elk or antelope. But which structure is it likely? Bobcat? Raptor?
I do not understand why they are so exited about something they are getting penies per mcf for. 1 billion if they find 11 T? Find that 11T in an area they can sell it for 1.29
You are saying that they will get 1.39/mcf if they find another 11T in non E/A PRL15?
I think that is 100 million more or 10 cents per MCF.
This apllliest to PRL15 only I think.
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - Palm - 12-07-2013
'TomCrooz' pid='33262' dateline='<a href="tel:1386357 Wrote:
'Putncalls' pid='33258' dateline='<a href="tel:1386357 Wrote:
'TomCrooz' pid='33254' dateline='<a href="tel:1386356 Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33236' dateline='<a href="tel:1386352 Wrote:Dr Mike stated that they are very excited about the new prospect in PRL 15 that may be as large or larger than EA. The label "elephant" makes sense if it's bigger than an elk or antelope. But which structure is it likely? Bobcat? Raptor?
I do not understand why they are so exited about something they are getting penies per mcf for. 1 billion if they find 11 T? Find that 11T in an area they can sell it for 1.29
You are saying that they will get 1.39/mcf if they find another 11T in non E/A PRL15?
I think that is 100 million more or 10 cents per MCF.
This apllliest to PRL15 only I think.
Per the PR posted by Gator they get the $1.29 for anything additional found in PRL15 once it's certified. With Raptor/Duckbill extending into PRL15 it would qualify. As well as Bighorn as Sageo pointed out.
Ugly day, but once we get past this and RJ and MS update hopefully we recover a bit. Nice to be able to add shares, but....
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - TomCrooz - 12-07-2013
'Palm' pid='33263' datel Wrote:
'TomCrooz' pid='33262' dateline='<a href="tel:1386357 Wrote:
'Putncalls' pid='33258' dateline='<a href="tel:1386357 Wrote:
'TomCrooz' pid='33254' dateline='<a href="tel:1386356 Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33236' dateline='<a href="tel:1386352 Wrote:Dr Mike stated that they are very excited about the new prospect in PRL 15 that may be as large or larger than EA. The label "elephant" makes sense if it's bigger than an elk or antelope. But which structure is it likely? Bobcat? Raptor?
I do not understand why they are so exited about something they are getting penies per mcf for. 1 billion if they find 11 T? Find that 11T in an area they can sell it for 1.29
You are saying that they will get 1.39/mcf if they find another 11T in non E/A PRL15?
I think that is 100 million more or 10 cents per MCF.
This apllliest to PRL15 only I think.
Per the PR posted by Gator they get the $1.29 for anything additional found in PRL15 once it's certified. With Raptor/Duckbill extending into PRL15 it would qualify. As well as Bighorn as Sageo pointed out.
Ugly day, but once we get past this and RJ and MS update hopefully we recover a bit. Nice to be able to add shares, but....
OK, I need clarification of "appraisal well". My understanding is an appraisal well is drilled in an existing, known formation. A "discovery/exploration well" is drilled to try and find a new formation. Do I have that right?? If so, the press release says they get up to 1.29 on gas found after drilling the 3 "appraisal wells" which would be drilled in an existing formation....E/A being the only one in PRL15. Correct me if I misunderstand because I dont think we are getting 1.29 on anything found in the "discovery well"...just the 100 mill per 1TCF after the first TCF. Hession said everyone involved(all bidders) were licking their chops over the "elephant" they think they have found with seismic work already done.
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - admin - 12-07-2013
["I dont think we are getting 1.29 on anything found in the "discovery well"...just the 100 mill per 1TCF after the first TCF. Hession said everyone involved(all bidders) were licking their chops over the "elephant" they think they have found with seismic work already done."]
Yea, that's how I understood it as well and it's the only part of the deal I don't like either. I've long favored to sell of all of E/A and with the money simply to do a lot of exploration and feed that to one, or both of the LNG plants (providing the new E/A owner would build one, but why wouldn't they), or partner again for LNG participation.
In that case we wouldn't have to sell elephants (in PRL15) for pennies. Luckily we still have chances in the other two licenses.
Anyway, that's all history now
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - ltinvest - 12-07-2013
I still don't think I understand the "bonus" money. This is for PRL 15 only....correct? Hession mentioned everything over 1TCF they get $100 million for every 1 TCF. He specifically said if they certified 11 Tcf at PRL 15 they would get $1 Billion additional from TOT. Did I mishear or misunderstand this?
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - ltinvest - 12-07-2013
So I have should have added....they get $1.29 net for everything over 6.5 Tcfe (uncapped) + they get $100 million "bonus" for everything above 1TCfe. Is this correct?
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - SamAdams - 12-07-2013
So if the elephant is 10 ts, IOC gets 3 those at $1.29 or $ 3.87 bln + $ 900 mln more for the extra Ts or $ 4.67 bln. Lets assume share count goes up to buy out IPI and use 55 mln outstanding (very rough guess) that's another $85 per share in value. Am I missing something here? seem to make sense if the implied value of IOC is $100 just on the Total deal and they then double the resource....Am I missing something? has to be proven first but that is the upside.
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - admin - 12-07-2013
'ltinvest' pid='33285' datel Wrote:I still don't think I understand the "bonus" money. This is for PRL 15 only....correct? Hession mentioned everything over 1TCF they get $100 million for every 1 TCF. He specifically said if they certified 11 Tcf at PRL 15 they would get $1 Billion additional from TOT. Did I mishear or misunderstand this?
That's how I understand it, fwiw.
RE: What's the elephant in the room? - Thylacine-2 - 12-07-2013
The elephant is not a discovery yet. It's still a prospect. If it is a big discovery we get more than pennies. We get "certainty of development" (Hession's goal) in an LNG project in which we own 30%.