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+--- Thread: Update of status (/showthread.php?tid=7028)
RE: Update of status - 2126 - 07-09-2014
Thanks, Pet, for your corrections on the 75% carry for the appraisal wells as an advance on the certification resource payments (although the Chart on page 11 of the 2014 AGM Presentation PDF does not show this 'carry' cost as being recouped by Total from the resource payment). Also, I still am unsure of the FID payment amount. Put is correct in that the chart on Page 11 of the 2014 AGM Presentation indicates a FID payment of $500 million. However, the SPA dated 3/26/14 notes on Page 5 (Page 7 of the PDF document) that the FID payment is to be $73,327,323.00. This $73.3 million figure was also used in the 3/26/14 Elk-Antelope Presentation PDF, page 7, under Fixed Payments "US$73.3 million at final investment decision for LNG project". Sorry if I'm going over old territory, but the new AGM presentation chart on page 11 seems to indicate that this amount is now $500 million. When did this change?
RE: Update of status - petrengr1 - 07-09-2014
'2126' pid='46509' datel Wrote:Thanks, Pet, for your corrections on the 75% carry for the appraisal wells as an advance on the certification resource payments (although the Chart on page 11 of the 2014 AGM Presentation PDF does not show this 'carry' cost as being recouped by Total from the resource payment). Also, I still am unsure of the FID payment amount. Put is correct in that the chart on Page 11 of the 2014 AGM Presentation indicates a FID payment of $500 million. However, the SPA dated 3/26/14 notes on Page 5 (Page 7 of the PDF document) that the FID payment is to be $73,327,323.00. This $73.3 million figure was also used in the 3/26/14 Elk-Antelope Presentation PDF, page 7, under Fixed Payments "US$73.3 million at final investment decision for LNG project". Sorry if I'm going over old territory, but the new AGM presentation chart on page 11 seems to indicate that this amount is now $500 million. When did this change?
I think we are getting bogged down in the legal document and the wording of some of the charts. There has been no change since the revised SPA. The chart on page 11 seems to be referring to the payment that will be made at FID which includes a part of the resource payment. This is different from the “FID payment” which is $73+ million.
If you look at the worked example shown on page 54 of the revised SPA you will see that the payment to be made at FID is $457 million. I can not tell if the chart includes the $73 million FID payment and the $457 million resource payment that is to be paid at FID but I guess that is what it is.
RE: Update of status - 2126 - 07-09-2014
OK, got it. Thanks, PET.
RE: Update of status - sageo - 07-09-2014
2126 and Pet -
Thanks guys for your solid-based discussion . Learning more and more as time goes on.
RE: Update of status - Gator - 07-09-2014
Bobcat drilling starts March 5, 2014
Wahoo drilling started March 10, 2014
Raptor drilling started March 28, 2014
Michael Hession – CEO March 31, 2014 “The wells on average in this part of the world take about 90 days. Now, the first well, actually Wahoo, is a bit shallower, so we expect to get some new flow towards the end of the month or early May on Wahoo. And then I’d just assume 90 days from spud on Bobcat and Raptor.”
June 24, 2014 Drilling taking longer than expected
Drilling taking longer than expected
Drilling taking longer than expected
125 days since Bobcat
120 days since Wahoo
102 days since Raptor
RE: Update of status - Libtardius Maximus - 07-09-2014
[quote='Gator' pid='46548' dateline='1404843021']
Bobcat drilling starts March 5, 2014
Wahoo drilling started March 10, 2014
Raptor drilling started March 28, 2014
Michael Hession – CEO March 31, 2014 “The wells on average in this part of the world take about 90 days. Now, the first well, actually Wahoo, is a bit shallower, so we expect to get some new flow towards the end of the month or early May on Wahoo. And then I’d just assume 90 days from spud on Bobcat and Raptor.”
June 24, 2014 Drilling taking longer than expected
Drilling taking longer than expected
Drilling taking longer than expected
125 days since Bobcat
120 days since Wahoo
102 days since Raptor
And with this post, Gator nails all the is wrong with IOC in the moment. It is the source of every argument, disagreement, flame post, blood pressure spike and general disagreement with SHU posters and shareholders. We have gone from sudden death overtime to approaching sudden death double overtime. If there was ever a time to change the IOC stock symbol from IOC to WAIT this would be it.
Well played Gator!
RE: Update of status - admin - 07-09-2014
Gents, when using the "reply" function under a previous post, start posting AFTER the [/quote] sign (you might have to scroll down a bit to find it), not before, otherwise your post becomes indistinguishable from the one you are reacting to..
RE: Update of status - calvin grad - 07-09-2014
I understand they said they are slightly behind schedule on Raptor. Slightly must be less than 40 per cent. 40 per cent over takes us to 126 days or about Aug 1 A week ago they had not reached the pay zone.. 30 days to get past the pressure, drill to total depth and get test results.. To say that honestly they must have believed they were well on the way through the pressure zone.
RE: Update of status - jft310 - 07-09-2014
Next time we hear for sure is by Aug 15th with second quarter earnings.
RE: Update of status - blue water - 07-10-2014
'Libtardius Maximus' pid='46550' datel Wrote:From my perspective as an investor in numerous E&P companies, including some engaged in high risk elephant hunting, there is nothing wrong with IOC or how it is being managed. For examples of other companies, look at the history of McMoRan Exploration (recently acquired by FCX) and EXXI, and their hunt for giant fields in the Gulf of Mexico. These are high risk, high payoff projects. They are risky because there are so many unknowns, all unpleasant, that come along as drilling progresses. The things that go wrong are not predicitable, and any estimates made in advance can only assume the things that are known. It is never management's fault when unpredictable events happen, and investors that get upset when things do go wrong and schedules stretch out might want to consider less risky investments. Harping on management in this situation is simply useless. While it may make the poster feel better, it adds nothing to our understanding of IOC. The one thing you can be certain of is that we investors know less than management does, and therefore must weigh the risks higher when we make investment decisions. Criticising mangagement without knowning what is going on inside the company is worse than useless, and the criticism I have seen on this board does not seem to be based on any knowledge of that.[quote='Gator' pid='46548' dateline='1404843021']
Bobcat drilling starts March 5, 2014
Wahoo drilling started March 10, 2014
Raptor drilling started March 28, 2014
Michael Hession – CEO March 31, 2014 “The wells on average in this part of the world take about 90 days. Now, the first well, actually Wahoo, is a bit shallower, so we expect to get some new flow towards the end of the month or early May on Wahoo. And then I’d just assume 90 days from spud on Bobcat and Raptor.”
June 24, 2014 Drilling taking longer than expected
Drilling taking longer than expected
Drilling taking longer than expected
125 days since Bobcat
120 days since Wahoo
102 days since Raptor
And with this post, Gator nails all the is wrong with IOC in the moment. It is the source of every argument, disagreement, flame post, blood pressure spike and general disagreement with SHU posters and shareholders. We have gone from sudden death overtime to approaching sudden death double overtime. If there was ever a time to change the IOC stock symbol from IOC to WAIT this would be it.
Well played Gator!
As high risk E&P investments go, I view IOC as exceptionally good because the opportunities are big, and there are so many of them. If they have troubles, I am sure they will learn from them. Such learning will extend the schedule, but that is normal in this space. It appears that they are well enough capatilized now that I consider it a very good bet that there will be successes enough to justify my investment before there is no more cash available to them. But still, it is a risk bet, not a risk free bet.