On July roadshow Laurie brown was very optimistic on what A5 could potentially add.  Others with some expertise are less optimistic on upside from A5.  But their should be upside to that 7T figure in any event.

'SamAdams' pid='50644' datel Wrote:

The GLJ #s don't stand, nor do GC.  We get a new set with this recert process.  That doesn't mean the GLJ estimates will ultimately be proven right, but they are not part of the recert calculation.  So without any side bets, its all on recert wells, new appraisal estimates to support LNG trains.  Much riskier than simply taking old numbers as a given.  Throw in bad energy, tape, lack of mgmt credibility to date etc etc = $48ish.

"In March 2010, the company received a third-party certified best-case resource estimate from GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. for over 9.1 Tcfe gross (5.2 Tcfe net)." 

GLJ#s do stand.  The net # that is.  That # has been verified by both TOT and OSH and is the basis of their buy-ins.  Re-cert of increased net # is key.  Hession's (and IOC) compensation package linked to exploration upside implies decent upside is expected from Ant 4 & 5 and the wildcard well.

IOC's stake in the net # of T's in PRL 15 explains the current pps more than arbitration unknowns, large short position or silent management me thinks.

GLJ #s will not be used.  Each company picks a new appraisal firm, and then both pick a third to do get to the new certificiation #..  Neither GLJ or GC can be used.  GLJ may well be spot on, but thier old appriaisal will not be the basis for recertificaiton.  This uncertainty for potential new investors keeps many traditional energy investors on the sidelines as they are used to looking at what's already booked.

'SamAdams' pid='50659' datel Wrote:

GLJ #s will not be used.  Each company picks a new appraisal firm, and then both pick a third to do get to the new certificiation #..  Neither GLJ or GC can be used.  GLJ may well be spot on, but thier old appriaisal will not be the basis for recertificaiton.  This uncertainty for potential new investors keeps many traditional energy investors on the sidelines as they are used to looking at what's already booked.

Agreed Sam and I never stated GLJ would be used, only they stand and have been verified by the buy-ins and public statements.  GLJ stated 6.1 TCF of recoverable sales gas  (That's from gross 9.2TCF) and IOC now owns 30% of the 6.1TCF or 1.83 TCF recoverable sales gas, prior to recert.

Upside, large upside, in PRL 15 from accepted GLJ 'Low Case' numbers is the panacea.

Hession sculpted TOT deal, and his pay package, with PRL15 upside in mind.

Yup, we're in agreement.

(10-09-2014, 11:33 PM)MRP Wrote: Tree, The gross number is the recoverable sales gas in the whole field. The net number was the 8.59 TCF of P50 recoverable sales gas (excluding condensates) times IOC's net 58.6% stake at the time (after government back in). Those net numbers are just for comparing our actual ownership % and for balance sheet metrics. This is a separate discussion that the gross vs net pay considerations in the actual well results. GLJ's P50 estimate was that the field had 8.59TCF of recoverable gas. Based on the most recent GCA P50 estimate of 7.1 TCFe and current IOC's net ownership of 28.5% their share would be 2.02 TCFe. Based on the most recent GLJ P50 of 9.9 TCFe, IOC's share is 2.82 TCFe.

Thanks for this clarification.  Your numbers can be documented on page 8 of the PRL15 Monetization presentation of March 26, 2014.  at http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documents/investorrelations/presentationanddocuments/2014/2014-03-26%20INTEROIL%20-%20TOTAL%20DEAL%20PRESENTATION%20FINAL.pdf

(10-09-2014, 11:27 PM)Tree Wrote:

(10-09-2014, 11:19 PM)SamAdams Wrote:

GLJ #s will not be used.  Each company picks a new appraisal firm, and then both pick a third to do get to the new certificiation #..  Neither GLJ or GC can be used.  GLJ may well be spot on, but thier old appriaisal will not be the basis for recertificaiton.  This uncertainty for potential new investors keeps many traditional energy investors on the sidelines as they are used to looking at what's already booked.

Agreed Sam and I never stated GLJ would be used, only they stand and have been verified by the buy-ins and public statements.  GLJ stated 6.1 TCF of recoverable sales gas  (That's from gross 9.2TCF) and IOC now owns 30% of the 6.1TCF or 1.83 TCF recoverable sales gas, prior to recert.

Upside, large upside, in PRL 15 from accepted GLJ 'Low Case' numbers is the panacea.

Hession sculpted TOT deal, and his pay package, with PRL15 upside in mind.

Tree, I don't know where you are getting the 6.1 TCF and the resulting 1.83 TCF, unless it is some earlier "Low Case" amount, but it does not reflect the latest GLJ figures (as of 12/31/12) published by the Company.  That was "Best Case" (2C) Initial Recoverable Sales Gas (without condensates) of 9.07 Tcf, or 9.9 Tcfe with condensates, which of course is part of the resources of value, or "Net to InterOil" of 5.31 Tcf or 5.8 Tcfe, which reflected the 58.5988% owned by IOC at the time after government buy-in (which adds further value).  The latter, of course, is still partly owned by IOC, and they are collecting compensation from Total for the other part bought by Total.  Put it all together, and I believe you have far greater value, not even mentioning the PV of an LNG project or potential greater resources in PRL 15 or elsewhere.