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RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-05-2015

German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that a diplomatic offensive by newly elected Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to ease his nation’s bailout-aid requirements is failing to win over converts.

Merkel Says Greek Diplomatic Offensive Is Failing - Yahoo Finance

Greek sovereign bonds, T-bills and government-guaranteed debt will no longer be welcome at the ECB Tower as of 11 February. The waiver — which let in Greek debt despite its junk-rated status for as long as Greece was in a programme — has been something of a merry-go-round before, in previous points of crisis between Greece and its official creditors. Bank bonds guaranteed by the government were also due to be kicked out at the end of this month because of a two year-old decision. This is the first cut. As Karl Whelan has explained, Greece’s use of ELA will be closely watched by the ECB’s Governing Council from this point and the screws could be turned here too in time. ELA is costlier for Greek banks to use — and is genuine lending of last resort — so it’s a lot more important for Greece’s position for this bit of plumbing to stay on.

Greece and the ECB: the first cut | FT Alphaville

One of the key uncertainties surrounding the situation in Greece is the relationship between the Greek banks and the ECB. Lots of press coverage is suggesting the ECB has a set of well-established rules that mean it will not be able to lend to Greek banks in March unless the government negotiates a new EU-IMF program to replace the one expiring at the end of this month.

What’s Going On with the ECB and Greece? — Bull Market — Medium

“Deposit outflows from Greek banks have been evident since early December 2014, but they accelerated in January 2015,” said Mr Nicolaides. “According to our estimates, deposits have declined by more than €12bn so far, from a private sector deposit base of €164.3bn at the end of November 2014.”

Greek banks find support after fall - FT.com

Europe’s most powerful policy makers dismiss the idea, investors fear it, and it would almost certainly face fierce resistance from within the Continent’s richer countries. Yet talk of slashing the government debt loads of European countries, starting with Greece, is back.

As Greece Rebels, the Notion of Debt Forgiveness Returns - NYTimes.com




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-05-2015

Graphic showing how much Greece owes to whom


Key dates for Greek government's diary






11 February

Eurozone finance ministers due to hold emergency talks to discuss Mr Varoufakis's plans

12 February

EU leaders' summit in Brussels

16 February

Eurogroup meeting due to discuss "state of play" in Greece

28 February

Current programme of loans ends

First quarter of 2015

Greece's funding needs estimated at €4.3bn by end of March

19-20 March

EU leaders' summit

20 July

€3.5bn bonds held by the European Central Bank mature

20 August

€3.2bn bonds held by the European Central Bank mature




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-06-2015

The regulat summaries on the situation in Greece by Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos have consistently been among the best in the entire sellside. His latest Greek update, which is a must read for anyone who hasn't been following the fluid developments out of southeast Europe, which fluctuate not on an hourly but minute basis, does not disappoint.

Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold | Zero Hedge

But what exactly have Greeks signed up to, backing a party that was once a wide-ranging far-left coalition that included Maoists? Here are five of Syriza's key aims.

BBC News - Greek elections: Five things Syriza wants to change

"If you humiliate a proud nation for too long and subject it to the worry of a debt deflation crisis, without light at the end of a tunnel then things come to the boil." The comparison is likely to send a clear message to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble ahead of his meeting with Mr Varoufakis on Thursday. Germany is seen as the strongest opponent among eurozone countries to any reduction of Greece's 323bn euro (£242bn/$369bn) debt. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out any cancellation of the debt, which is about 175% of Greece's GDP, saying lenders had already made concessions.

BBC News - Don't humiliate us, Greek finance minister tells Germany

Greek economy in numbers Average wage is €600 (£450: $690) a month Unemployment is at 25%, with youth unemployment almost 50% Economy has shrunk by 25% since the start of the eurozone crisis Country's debt is 317bn euros - 175% of GDP Borrowed €240bn (£188bn) from the EU, the ECB and the IMF

BBC News - Don't humiliate us, Greek finance minister tells Germany

Greece does not want to extend the programme or receive new payments under the existing programme, which ends on 28 February. But it does want to receive the profits the European Central Bank (ECB) has made on buying Greek government bonds, government debt traded in the markets. This is money which has been promised to Greece but not yet handed over and is worth €1.9bn.

BBC News - Greece's debt plans: What we know

When reading structural reform effort through these lenses, one sees that Greece has made significant progress, climbing almost 50 positions over 5 years, from its 109th place in 2008-09[1]. Given that Latvia is apparently the benchmark, it must be noted that the country was already ranking very well in 2008-09 (30th worldwide) and improved moderately since then. In its 2014 Report, the World Bank itself using slightly more sophisticated metrics identifies Greece as one of the top broad reformers worldwide (8th to be precise).

Can Greece become competitive overnight? | Alessio Terzi at Bruegel.org




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-09-2015

One of the worst costs — for Germany — has been the lack productivity growth. For all the talk of Teutonic competitiveness, German labour productivity has grown at the meagre pace of just 0.6 per cent per year, on average, since 1998. Output per hour worked is actually lower now than it was in 2007. For perspective, this track record is worse than that of practically every other rich country — including Greece and Spain!

Michael Pettis explains the euro crisis (and a lot of other things, too) | FT Alphaville

Ambrose:  If they want to keep the euro: They must repeal the idiot Fiscal Compact since it guarantees twenty years of quasi depression that will destroy Europe altogether and reduce it to a seething mass of hatred, under-investment, and poverty. They must launch a real New Deal worth €1.5bn of infrastructure and high-tech projects immediately. They must rewrite the treaties to allow direct monetary financing of deficits ignite this with €2 trillion of helicopter money from the ECB, outright fiscal dominance, not with meaningless attempts to squeeze 20 more basis points out of the yield curve as they aim to to do with their QE. This would avert deflation and prevent a compound interest trap in half Europe. They must accept that monetary union means fiscal union. They must abolish the nation states in all but name and accept a latterday, polyglot, dysfunctional, Habsburg Empire. 2:04  Ambrose:  Since this is undesirable, undemocratic, dangerous, and impossible, why not just break the damn thing up

Greek crisis: put your questions to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Telegraph

With no apparent progress over a debt deal for Greece, despite a week of high profile meetings between Varoufakis and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and their fellow euro zone ministers, there is growing speculation over the eventual outcome.

Greek debt drama is 'theater,' but stakes are high




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-11-2015

Deflationary conditions are causing interest costs to rise faster than nominal GDP in Italy, Spain, and Portugal, automatically pushing public debt ratios ever higher. Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen warns that Grexit would be “Lehman squared”, setting off a calamitous chain reaction with worldwide consequences.

Greece's leaders stun Europe with escalating defiance - Telegraph

The art of Game Theory brinkmanship is to convince opponents that you are utterly defiant, almost insane, and willing to bring the temple crashing down on everybody’s heads. Then you smile and talk turkey. Greece’s Syriza radicals are proving good at this, at least in demonstrating, or feigning, madness. Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis – by all reports the new heart-throb for the thinking German woman – is a theorist on the subject. He wrote a book, “Game Theory: A Critical Text” in 1995. Now he is putting it into practice with great relish.

Greece's last minute offer to Brussels changes absolutely nothing - Telegraph




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-12-2015

Although one wouldn’t guess it from a lot of the grandstanding, there is actually a lot of will to reach a deal. The troika wasn’t all that far from concluding a renewed program with the Greek government before the election, and although Syriza have come in with a lot of new ideas and started going about them all in a pretty chaotic way, they’re not unable to negotiate. So what would a guess be at an eventual outcome?

Greece: looking on the bright side … — Bull Market — Medium

It can be difficult to discern what the different parties want from the tense negotiations – which is why plenty of people have been relying on the old national stereotypes of inflexible Germany versus flighty Greece. Here, we break down what we know about the different demands.

Greece: Who wants what and why




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-15-2015

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis on Wednesday had his first Eurogroup meeting, with the focus entirely on his country. Nothing official has emerged, but according to one report, a statement was within minutes of being agreed upon before it was torpedoed by Athens.

Europe's finance ministers very nearly agreed to this provisional deal on Greece - Business Insider

Perhaps governmental intervention sounds very familiar. Perhaps the recently announced quantitative easing program for €1 trillion announced by the European Central Bank sounds familiar as well. Europe is taking a page out of the United States' playbook. Citigroup and AIG were too big to fail and the US government stepped in. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General Motors and Chrysler were too big to fail and the US government stepped in. Like these examples, Greece is too big to fail and the European Union will step in as well.

Greece is simply 'too big to fail'—commentary




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-16-2015

The coming week will go a long way to dictating whether Greece remains in the euro zone. A meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday is tasked with producing a deal that will keep Greece solvent and which is acceptable to both sides.

The eyes of the world are on Greece - Business Insider




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-16-2015

The effectiveness of the Grexit threat depends on two conditions. First, Germany and other eurozone members must regard Grexit as a significant risk to themselves. Second, a return to the drachma must offer the prospect that the Greek economy will eventually do better on its own than in the currency union (and under the existing economic program). In the absence of the first condition, the eurozone will respond to Greece by saying, “Be our guest, leave.” In the absence of the second condition, Greece’s threat will not be credible.

These are the reforms Greece really needs - Business Insider




RE: Greece, not again? - admin - 02-17-2015

Translation (if you look back at that Eurogroup statement): no give whatsoever on the primary surplus of 4.5 percent of GDP. There was absolutely no way Tsipras and company could sign on to such a statement, which makes you wonder what the Eurogroup ministers think they’re doing. I guess it’s possible that they’re just fools — that they don’t understand that Greece 2015 is not Ireland 2010, and that this kind of bullying won’t work. Alternatively, and I guess more likely, they’ve decided to push Greece over the edge.

Greece pushed over the Edge? Paul Krugman -  NYTimes.com

Yet another wrinkle has emerged in the Greek/ECB debt negotiations over the past 24 hours. In an unprecedented move, spearheaded by French Finance Minister Michel Sapin, the concept of compromise has been ushered into the narrative after two days of fruitless negotiations and a clear polarization of positions. Sapin has suggested that the newly elected Greek government must respect commitments made by the previous administration but also added that the ECB must come to terms with that change in government. He went so far as to say that he understands the position held by the Greek government.

Kenny's Commentary — France's Sapin offers cover to hardliners and may...

Greece has done a lot more austerity than those countries cited as supposed success stories (which is another issue — success being defined as “not total collapse, and slight recovery after years of horror” — but that’s a different story).

Comparative Austerity Paul Krugman NYTimes.com