'Putncalls' pid='53952' dateline='<a href="tel:1421082 Wrote:It looks like certification is now dependent on A6.

Certification after A6, yes. Can't be read any other way. But....concept selection before A6 results.  That means to me they know they have the gas for two trains and any more revealed by A6 would support train three.

Why hey does this stock always drop on good news?

'Putncalls' pid='53950' dateline='<a href="tel:1421079 Wrote:ANT 6 delays certification. I wonder what triggered the A6 decision?

Good question.  You add appraisal wells when you are not sufficiently comfortable with the data you already have for the project you hope to deliver.  So it is to firm up the number of trains be it 1, 2 or 3 or more.

A fringe benefit of low oil prices is that declining oil production will also pull down associated gas production which can send gas prices higher one day.  There already are reports of increased LNG imports to the U.S., a good sign.

Question is are they done with A4?   Why didn't they test it?  They talked of testing A5 but not A4?  Anyone got any ideas?

'Putncalls' pid='53950' datel Wrote:ANT 6 delays certification. I wonder what triggered the A6 decision?

-  More money at certification, probably significantly more and enough more to warrant a few months delay in payment (which is not needed sooner anyway), with part of the drilling planned to be simultaneous with extended flow test at Antelope 5 in conjunction with response measurements at other wells (as well as completion of Antelope 5 possibly, assuming a different rig), and without affecting progress on the LNG project.

-  I think A6 could contribute to confirmation of adequate resources at E/A for a third train.  Upstream's recent article indicates that Hession told them that they are drilling a series of appraisal wells that will tell us whether we will have two or three trains.  I don't think any of the analysts have a third train in their projections and price targets, and I think that would be huge.

-  Keep in mind also there is a carry for A6 by Total.

-  Bottom line, I also think with all that in mind A6 could significantly enhance the stock value of IOC in the upcoming year.

'Thylacine-2' pid='53968' datel Wrote:Ant 6 is not a go yet. It's still pending JV approval. The possible advantages of Ant 6 for IOC are clear...more money. Total needs to weigh the pros and cons of Ant 6 for Total.

I realize that, and IOC acknowledges such.  However, they seem to be fairly confident of it, citing its purpose and "expected" spud timeframe on page 11, and having it on the page 13 planned schedule.

'Kaliboo' pid='53965' datel Wrote:

'Putncalls' pid='53950' dateline='<a href="tel:1421079 Wrote:ANT 6 delays certification. I wonder what triggered the A6 decision?

Good question.  You add appraisal wells when you are not sufficiently comfortable with the data you already have for the project you hope to deliver.  So it is to firm up the number of trains be it 1, 2 or 3 or more.

A fringe benefit of low oil prices is that declining oil production will also pull down associated gas production which can send gas prices higher one day.  There already are reports of increased LNG imports to the U.S., a good sign.

Question is are they done with A4?   Why didn't they test it?  They talked of testing A5 but not A4?  Anyone got any ideas?

Good comments, Kaliboo, hadn't seen yours when I posted mine after an interruption.

Based on page 11, I would say they have not completed drilling A4 all the way to TD and will be doing normal testing as they go and/or then, as with A5.  I think the extended flow test will be special additional testing to be done only at A5 after its completion but in conjunction simultaneously with pressure measurements at other appraisal wells.  Also see the page 13 program and schedule.

'Tree' pid='53940' datel Wrote:Slide 10 contains 'Cold Hard Facts' If there remains an Asian LNG trade capital will flow to E/A LNG. E/A LNG IRR 20% when industry goal is 12% which PNG LNG achieves.

Slide 10 again.

P5 project, Ichthys, is still above breakeven today per report,  Still a few bucks wiggle room at these prices for EA Project.