'CAC' pid='62791' datel Wrote:

'admin' pid='62789' datel Wrote:

[quote='CAC' pid='62788' dateline='1442328607']

Geez the SHU board voted 12 T's . How come Goldman didn't model that number ?didn't Calio say at least 9 T's for the Sept 21st call??

*******

Although it is conceivable that there might actually be 12T's, I think it's naive to think that IOC will end up getting paid based on that figure.  Don't we all anticipate a higher estimate and a lower estimate by the two entities?  Those numbers will be averaged.  If either party has any ability to influence/manipulate an estimate at all, I would presume it would be TOT. 

If there's actually 10T's in the ground and IOC's estimator says so, I would not be surprised to see TOT's selection come in considerably lower.  There are hundreds of millions of dollars at stake.   

While it's entirely conceivable that the two reports will differ, these are organizations with reputations at stake and the reports will be available to many, I don't think its likely they will be doctored in any way.

******

"Doctored" might be a little strong.  But this is not an exact science and there is a range wherein reasonable minds could plausibly (and defensibly) differ.  TOT may hire one of these firms another 20 times over the next decade...and I presume the firms like getting hired.  So, seeing one come in on the lowest point within the "reasonable range" does not seem far-fetched to me.  

If the two estimates come in within 10% of each other I will gladly stand corrected.   

Within 10% would be great.  Within 20% would be disappointing, but acceptable.  After that I think we have a real problem.

[""Doctored" might be a little strong.  But this is not an exact science and there is a range wherein reasonable minds could plausibly (and defensibly) differ.  TOT may hire one of these firms another 20 times over the next decade...and I presume the firms like getting hired.  So, seeing one come in on the lowest point within the "reasonable range" does not seem far-fetched to me.

If the two estimates come in within 10% of each other I will gladly stand corrected."]

It is higly improbable they'll put something out that isn't defensible. Humans are social beings, they do actually care what other people think of them, especially fellow professionals. Unless selling yourself to the highest bidder or losing all professional ethics becomes part of the culture, and everybody's doing it (like what happened in some financial istitutions), this isn't going to be a problem.

There could very well be a conservative estimate, but CG is supposed to be conservative already. But it will be defensible from a professional point of view, IMHO.

'admin' pid='62796' datel Wrote:

[""Doctored" might be a little strong.  But this is not an exact science and there is a range wherein reasonable minds could plausibly (and defensibly) differ.  TOT may hire one of these firms another 20 times over the next decade...and I presume the firms like getting hired.  So, seeing one come in on the lowest point within the "reasonable range" does not seem far-fetched to me.

If the two estimates come in within 10% of each other I will gladly stand corrected."]

It is higly improbable they'll put something out that isn't defensible. Humans are social beings, they do actually care what other people think of them, especially fellow professionals. Unless selling yourself to the highest bidder or losing all professional ethics becomes part of the culture, and everybody's doing it (like what happened in some financial istitutions), this isn't going to be a problem.

There could very well be a conservative estimate, but CG is supposed to be conservative already. But it will be defensible from a professional point of view, IMHO.

Admin, the key question is how wide a margin is "defensible?"  Please answer that as specifically as you can.

'Movieguy' pid='62798' datel Wrote:

'admin' pid='62796' datel Wrote:

[""Doctored" might be a little strong.  But this is not an exact science and there is a range wherein reasonable minds could plausibly (and defensibly) differ.  TOT may hire one of these firms another 20 times over the next decade...and I presume the firms like getting hired.  So, seeing one come in on the lowest point within the "reasonable range" does not seem far-fetched to me.

If the two estimates come in within 10% of each other I will gladly stand corrected."]

It is higly improbable they'll put something out that isn't defensible. Humans are social beings, they do actually care what other people think of them, especially fellow professionals. Unless selling yourself to the highest bidder or losing all professional ethics becomes part of the culture, and everybody's doing it (like what happened in some financial istitutions), this isn't going to be a problem.

There could very well be a conservative estimate, but CG is supposed to be conservative already. But it will be defensible from a professional point of view, IMHO.

Admin, the key question is how wide a margin is "defensible?"  Please answer that as specifically as you can.

Without losing face.