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March 2016 - Printable Version +- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb) +-- Forum: SHU Portfolio (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=57) +--- Forum: SHU Portfolio (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=46) +--- Thread: March 2016 (/showthread.php?tid=9819) |
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RE: March 2016 - admin - 03-05-2016 Zacks is saying something interesting:
Remains to be seen, but we're leaving the January troubles behind with perpaps a little too easily..
RE: March 2016 - admin - 03-05-2016 ANd the Ellie Mae CEO sells yet another $3M+ in stock.. But Needham just put a $100 price target on it. RE: March 2016 - admin - 03-05-2016 Have a look at this, from Seeking Alpha.
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Right now there is a tug of war going on between bulls and bears. That explains the violent drop to start the year followed by an equally impressive bounce. That same chain of events took place last year August through October. Yet by my estimation the bears are winning the war. And now after this latest bounce is the perfect time to grab the rope with them for the next pull lower. So yes, my goal is to get you to appreciate the bear argument to make changes to your portfolio. Not just to survive, but thrive in this environment that will likely last another 6-12 months. That's because sticking your head in the sand to wake up to 30-50% losses is not an effective strategy. Hiding in cash is better... but why do that when there are ample profits to be made riding the bear to the finish line? There is no singular data point or piece of evidence that guarantees that a bear market is on the way. Rather it is about assembling a case where the preponderance of the evidence points to the verdict. In my recent commentary for the Reitmeister Trading Alert I have pointed out more than a dozen bearish arguments. However, putting them all here today might take the better of the weekend for you to read. Instead I am going to share with you the 4 best reasons to get bearish now. #1- Bear Markets Are More Common Than You Realize As human beings we are hard wired for pain avoidance. With that you see many investors trying their best to rationalize why a bull market will stay in place even when the odds keep stacking up against them. Part of the problem is that most investors don't really appreciate how commonly bear markets occur. Yet as this chart shows you, there have actually been 25 bear market drops of 20% or more the last 87 years.
We all know that night follows day. Just as well bear markets follow bulls. The timing of which is just less certain. So with this being the 3rd longest bull market over that same 87 year stretch, it says that we are getting pretty close to the end. More . . . |
.Bear Market Deadline Nears
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#2- Earnings Recession |
We've already argued for years that the euro has been a tragic mistake and the odds are on that it will end very badly. Former BoE governor Mervyn King isn't optimistic either:
Germany’s membership in the euro zone has achieved the opposite of what its architects intended because the single currency has driven its constituent nations apart, former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said. “I worry that this is now going to be a battle between the political will of an elite that created this who daren’t now admit that it was a mistake, and economic arithmetic,” King said on the BBC’s “Andrew Marr Show” on Sunday. “We’re all going to suffer from that.”
Germany Suffers Euro Headache That Will Hurt Europe, King Says - Bloomberg Business
And then there is formerly thriving Finland..
Few Finns probably thought that adopting the euro would mean more work for less pay. Yet trade unions are now getting ready to sign off on a deal that will cut workers’ income and raise working hours. Unveiled last week, it’s designed to boost competitiveness as the Nordic nation struggles within the constraints of the euro zone. The board of Finland’s biggest union, SAK, convenes on Monday to give it its final blessing, which would drive forward a painful process first kicked off by Prime Minister Juha Sipila after he took power in May. But it could be a tight vote. Four of SAK’s most influential members, representing 40 percent of its members, have already said they will reject the deal.
For Finnish Workers, the Euro Means Longer Hours and Lower Pay - Bloomberg Business
And with the emerging market mess and the euro problems and the euro area once again slowing to a crawl and with zero inflation and beleagered banks, and then add:
The world’s credit boom is beginning to show dangerous signs of unraveling, ushering in a period of fresh turmoil for the over-indebted global economy, the Bank of International Settlements has warned. The globe’s top financial watchdog called time on the world’s debt binge, noting that debt issuance and cross border flows in emerging economies slowed for the first time since the aftermath of the global credit crunch at the end of last year.
Debtor days are over as BIS calls time on world credit binge
It's really hard to go all in on the markets, which is why we remain mostly in cash here.
Another substantial ($16M+) sell from an Ellie Mae (ELLI) insider (the VP). We're not worried this is a negative sign for the business as these officials do this routinely. What bugs us a little is that it underlines our thesis (set out here) that ELLI earnings should basically use GAAP figures, which are less than half the non-GAAP ones that the street uses.
Simply because executive incentive pay makes up most of the difference, and officials sell routinely (and the share buyback program moppes it up), it's basically just management pay, in our view. ELLI is by no means the only company to practice this, and the business is otherwise run fantastically.
Yea, we were a bit disappointed with the reaction of the share price of Jinko Solar (JKS) to the excellent quarterly result, but perhaps Jonathan is on to something here:
JinkoSolar is having an amazing year. Stock price has remained range-bound. Management may be keeping the share price down until May convertibles are repurchased. Once the convertibles are out of the way, share price can soar.
How Do JinkoSolar Shares Stay So Low? - JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS) | Seeking Alpha
And his case for the valuation gap in today's share price:
On Tuesday, JinkoSolar announced Q4-2015 results that were out of this world.
Quarterly sales grew year over year by a staggering 104.4% to $937.7M.
Non-GAAP net income was $54M, and operating cash flows were a whopping $357M.
Book value rose to $667M, which means the stock is trading at a mere 1.12X book value.
With these great results in mind, we do need to remember that JinkoSolar is developing a downstream business (constructing and operating solar projects) in China which has reached total capacity of more than 1GW.
The downstream business isn't meant to stay on JKS's books. The company is pursuing a spin-off which in my view could yield $1.5B-$2B. So, 55% of that would go to JKS, since 45% of the downstream business is already owned by three private equity funds.
This "not-so-hidden" asset should immediately increase JKS book value by 2x-3x.
This is actually very good news:
The yuan strengthened after China’s central bank raised its fixing for the fourth day in a row and data showed a less-than-estimated drop in the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves. The currency stockpile shrank by $28.6 billion last month, the smallest decline since June, to $3.2 trillion, the People’s Bank of China said on Monday. That’s lower than the $40.9 billion decrease predicted in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and compares with December’s record drop of $108 billion as the monetary authority supported the yuan.
Yuan Strengthens as PBOC Raises Fixing, Reserves Slow Decline - Bloomberg Business
Capital outflows are slowing, at least for now and this eases the possibility of a substantial yuan depreciation, which would be really bad news for the world economy.
Curious futures are down.