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+--- Thread: Where will IOC get its project money? What?!! (/showthread.php?tid=1210)
RE: Where will IOC get its project money? What?!! - Palm - 07-29-2012
Agree Tree; this is way too much of many many rehashes of things on Yazoo; especially the Mitsui agreements. Agree also on the $6.3 million; that was an option payment. Might add that the Cove deal is not a good comp. That bidding was for an 8.5% share of that deal. Shell has indicated that they had planned on buying that 8.5% and then going after Anadarko's chunk. Now why would they do that? Because they know that first taking that small bite at that price gives them a bargaining chip for Anadarko's piece. Standard stuff. Now they are talking about still pursuing the Anadarko piece; let's see how that goes. Bet it will go for more of a premium. Lots of things have changed the whole world of NG/LNG in the last few years. What once was a nuicense by-product is now a highly valued commodity. Using historic transactions is not as applicable in a quickly changing industry. If this market were anywhere close to being mature, we wouldn't have the great disparity in pricing between Europe, Asia and the US. I'd rather look at premiums being paid on majority interests or total buyouts in tar sands, shale gas, etc and think how much more valuable IOC's reservoir's are. To argue whether IOC might be worth $185, $200, $300 etc at this point is much more than I'm interested in doing. I'll take them all. Done enough work on all this over the last 4 years to be very content. And it appears ubers have been much more right than wrong due to the fact that we've invested this time. Nothing will make me wobble at this point and current events are far more valuable in this industry than something that happened even 5 years ago.
'admin' pid='7418' dateline='<a href="tel:1343528 Wrote:It's getting a little confusing with all these quotes within quotes, folks..
Yep WAY too Yazooish.
RE: Where will IOC get its project money? What?!! - bam - 07-29-2012
OK..thanks guys..I appreciate the respones..sorry to make you go over old stuff..I agree that at this point the difference between any of the numbers we're talking about are all rich man's problems..I got into IOC in mid june when i realized that the short arguments made no sense - I thought the risk/reward was incredible, but I'm still trying to quantify the upside..still learning..thanks again for taking the time to respond and educate.
RE: Where will IOC get its project money? What?!! - Palm - 07-29-2012
Lots of history right here on SHU where STP has posted data, statistics, info on Mitsui agreement, where all this has been detailed. If you need any of that check with stp. He'll gladly point you to it and it'll save rehashing it all here again. Rule 4 is a great one for this board and avoids marathon threads like those found on Yazoo.
RE: Where will IOC get its project money? What?!! - jft310 - 07-29-2012
'bam' pid='7421' datel Wrote:Bam my only IOC concern is can we survive the next 18 months without a takeover being successful. The price someone pays for IOC in the next 18 monthe would be way low IMHO.Over $150 for sure but way low. If JKM is one of our partners I think our odds of surviving are good. If Exxon succeeds in the 25% partnership vs JKM I think they Exxon will buy the entire enchalada before I would want them to buy out IOC. The best time for IOC to sell out is right before the LNG plant opens. Too many unknowns today to compute a price.OK..thanks guys..I appreciate the respones..sorry to make you go over old stuff..I agree that at this point the difference between any of the numbers we're talking about are all rich man's problems..I got into IOC in mid june when i realized that the short arguments made no sense - I thought the risk/reward was incredible, but I'm still trying to quantify the upside..still learning..thanks again for taking the time to respond and educate.
RE: Where will IOC get its project money? What?!! - admin - 07-29-2012
'Palm' pid='7422' datel Wrote:Lots of history right here on SHU where STP has posted data, statistics, info on Mitsui agreement, where all this has been detailed. If you need any of that check with stp. He'll gladly point you to it and it'll save rehashing it all here again. Rule 4 is a great one for this board and avoids marathon threads like those found on Yazoo.
I'm afraid we had to bar STP from the data room..