Short manipulation aside, there are no buyers.

The recent trip from $90 to $51 has made investors sufficiently skeptical to warrant IOC becoming a "show me the money" stock.

I also suspect that most seasoned investor's are expecting news to leak and show up in the options market first.

'sfiaes' pid='16962' datel Wrote:

Short manipulation aside, there are no buyers.

The recent trip from $90 to $51 has made investors sufficiently skeptical to warrant IOC becoming a "show me the money" stock.

I also suspect that most seasoned investor's are expecting news to leak and show up in the options market first.

No secrets in PNG O&G circles, very true sfiaes. Yes its a show me story, but it is also a timing story. For example what do you pay PPS wise for produvtion of a smaller project with 2016 production (modular for example)? What do you pay for that same production in 2018? How much does that effect the discount? How much cash will IOC get? 200 million? or 750 million? How much does that effect the valuation currently? How much does the $$ value of the SD change the PPS valuation? When will the cash upfront be paid? Surely not immediately, surely only after FID, at least the bulk of it. XOM isnt PRE after all. So when will FID be? End 2014? Mid 2014? Where does IOC get the cash to drill the manadtory wells in their other licenses in order to keep them if the bulk of the upfront cash is payable at FID? Or in stages after FID? Its really not as simple as some make it out.

One story is a conventional plant with 2018 startup and a modest amount upfront cash at a $1 sd price. That doesnt scare the shorts at all. How much retail selling occurs on deal news...those that dont want to hold till 2018?

One story is modular with 2016 startup and lots of cash upfront at a $2 SD price.

Another story is a combination.

Is IOC post deal worth $75? $90? $120? $150? Certainly not less than $58 i'm sure. Some contend IOC loses most of their licenses in 2014. I don't believe that for a minute. The best will be drilled. Some will be coughed up. But I'm sure they have considered this.

We will see shortly. But nobody is buying or selling, Bring it on.

"When all the cards are down...theres nothing left to see..theres just the pavement left, and broken dreams." JG

'sfiaes' pid='16962' datel Wrote:

Short manipulation aside, there are no buyers.

The recent trip from $90 to $51 has made investors sufficiently skeptical to warrant IOC becoming a "show me the money" stock.

I also suspect that most seasoned investor's are expecting news to leak and show up in the options market first.

No secrets in PNG O&G circles, very true sfiaes. Yes its a show me story, but it is also a timing story. For example what do you pay PPS wise for produvtion of a smaller project with 2016 production (modular for example)? What do you pay for that same production in 2018? How much does that effect the discount? How much cash will IOC get? 200 million? or 750 million? How much does that effect the valuation currently? How much does the $$ value of the SD change the PPS valuation? When will the cash upfront be paid? Surely not immediately, surely only after FID, at least the bulk of it. XOM isnt PRE after all. So when will FID be? End 2014? Mid 2014? Where does IOC get the cash to drill the manadtory wells in their other licenses in order to keep them if the bulk of the upfront cash is payable at FID? Or in stages after FID? Its really not as simple as some make it out.

One story is a conventional plant with 2018 startup and a modest amount upfront cash at a $1 sd price. That doesnt scare the shorts at all. How much retail selling occurs on deal news...those that dont want to hold till 2018?

One story is modular with 2016 startup and lots of cash upfront at a $2 SD price.

Another story is a combination.

Is IOC post deal worth $75? $90? $120? $150? Certainly not less than $58 i'm sure. Some contend IOC loses most of their licenses in 2014. I don't believe that for a minute. The best will be drilled. Some will be coughed up. But I'm sure they have considered this.

We will see shortly. But nobody is buying or selling, Bring it on.

"When all the cards are down...theres nothing left to see..theres just the pavement left, and broken dreams." JG

Lots of questions Bert, most will have to wait to be answered until we see the deal.

As a long, none of them really scare me.

Most discounted cash flow models I have seen, using reasonable discount rates(12%), arrive at substantially higher values regardless of the time frame and size.

Quality partners will bear lots of fruit, give us lots of options. Further sell downs for upfront cash to minority partners. Bankable off take agreements, etc...

The problem isn't the shorts, it's the lack of buyers.

It makes no sense for the institutions to call there stock in now, wait till we get to $100, then squeeze 'em.

Here's how I handicap it in my own mind:

After deal I think there is a 60% probability the stock settles between $75 - $100, a 30% probability its settles above $100 and 10% below $75.

Given there is a 90% chance you make 25% or better in the next two months from these levels, I think the stock should be trading currently $10 - $15 higher. Obviously the market thinks different .

The problem is all the historical baggage this stock carries around, otherwise you would be hard pressed to draw up a more compelling investment.