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+--- Thread: What are the odds of drilling a dry hole at Triceratops-2? (/showthread.php?tid=315)
- petrengr1 - 02-17-2012
Palm/Maui- Thanks for your input. I will give you my opinion on some of your comments.
1. “GLJ’s Arun comment at Ant I believe was aimed at its potential productivity % and not the size of that formation”
Yes the analogy of Antelope being another Arun has been very much over played. About all they have in common is they are both thick limestone reefs. Here is some information from one of my old posts:
Some history of Arun Field
Discovery well had 1100 feet of reefal limestone.(Antelope-1 had around 2,300 ft.)
Production began in 1977.
Average reservoir depth 10,050 feet.
Original reservoir pressure was 7100 psi in 1977.
After producing for 12 years the reservoir pressure was still 4330 psi in 1989.
The original reserve estimate in 1975 was 16.1 TCF.
Field size 23,240 acres. (2+ times the size of Antelope but less that half as thick. The reason the recoverable reserves are some 2x higher than Antelope is the much higher original reservoir pressure. The original reservoir pressure at Antelope is about 3660 psi depending of the depth the pressure is measured. So original pressure at Arun was almost twice the pressure at Antelope.)
Arun Field has now been producing for 34 years.
The largest number I see here for possible recoverable gas from Arun field is 20 TCF.
2. “how large would Triceratops need to be horizontally in km to start approaching even half the volume that Arun is?”
It is already large enough to contain more than half the volume of Arun if we find a significant amount of reefal reservoir rock in all of the high spots that look like possible reefs. Arun field was 23,240 acres. If Triceratops is 62 square miles that is 39,680 acres. The discovery well at Arun had 1100 feet of reefal limestone. I think Triceratops may have a gas column height in excess of 2,000 feet. Arun was more than twice as deep as Triceratops so the higher pressure at Arun means an equal pore space would contain about 2.4 times as much gas at Arun as compared to Triceratops and about 1.9 times as much as Antelope. The original reservoir pressure at Arun was about 7,100 psi. I expect the pressure at Triceratops to be about 3,000 psi.
3. “With this formation being less thick than Arun it seems it would be a great candidate for directional drilling.”
Actually I think the formation at Triceratops will be thicker than Arun. As far as directional drilling is concerned, I believe we will see multiple wells from individual location pads. If we find high porosity/permeability reefal limestone the reservoir can probably be depleted without drilling the wells too close together. I believe the main reason for using directional drilling will be to save money on rig moves (helicopter), location preparation, roads and pipeline rights-of-way. The Triceratops Field area is very rough terrain (much worse than Antelope) and it will be expensive to build roads, locations and pipeline rights-of-way in this area. If we minimize the number of locations we will minimize the other requirements.
The more shallow depth of the Triceratops Field limits the “reach” of directional wells (as compared to Arun for example) unless they do go horizontal. I think they could develop an area up to 1 km in all directions from a single location. So location pads could be 3+ km apart without any problems. I think we will also likely see directional wells at Antelope.
4. “could any of the string of locations and/or high spots support multiple wells (perhaps in diff directions) from a single pad?”
I believe this is answered in No. 3 above.
5. Regarding the need for horizontal wells, I think this is misunderstood in some quarters.
Horizontal wells were originally used to increase the number of feet of “net” pay by drilling horizontally in a relatively thin pay zone or to get a much greater amount of pay zone open in low permeability reservoirs (shales, shaley sands, or shaley limestones). This allows the use of multi-zone frac treatments which allows for commercial production whereas a vertical well would produce uneconomical or less economical results.
In the case of very thick high permeability zones such as Antelope (and I hope Triceratops) horizontal wells are not required for the above described reasons.
At Antelope-2 I think IOC used the horizontal drilling for the following reasons:
a. They thought they had an oil column which they wanted to prove and test.
b. They wanted to show that the reservoir rock extended some distance from the vertical well.
c. They needed to pin down the gas/water contact if no oil zone was present.
Due to the higher expense and difficulty of horizontal drilling in this over pressured high permeability (loss of circulation) formation I would expect IOC to utilize directional drilling rather than horizontal drilling. Even with conventional vertical and directional drilling I think they will continue to have to use the pressure managed or mud cap drilling technique due to loss of circulation.
- sageo - 02-17-2012
Maui,Pet-Aren't we about ready to set some 13+ inch casing at T2? Also,OT,would Shell be interested in acquiring ppl just west of our ppl 237?
- petrengr1 - 02-17-2012
They should have already set and cemented the 13 3/8" casing barring other problems.
- maui4marko - 02-18-2012
Sageo - pet is more knowledgeable than I am wrt drilling progress, but assessing it purely from a project scheduling perspective, I previously estimated in the PalmJumeirah post the time range to set 13-3/8″ casing at ~3,100′ was at the earliest Feb 15th and the latest March 15th http://shareholdersunite.com/forums/topic/ipaa-presentation/#post-7087
So I agree with pet that if they didn't run into any problems, they should have already started the 9-5/8" casing or if issues arose then could be at most a few more weeks.
Looking forward to the next drilling update so we can revise the target dates. Goes without saying there is high interest in be how far they will have come by the mid- to late-March. Could be anywhere from completing the 13-3/8" casing from the most pessimistic all the way to hitting TD at the most optimistic. Still necessarily quite a large range, until we get more clarity re: progress.
- sageo - 02-18-2012
Pet et.al. commenters,thanks much.I tried to find the info on the 2009 Poroman seismic survey but my limited skills didn't help me much.I do recall some talk about joint co-op between LNG corp and ioc. If one of you had time, would appreciate your input on this while we are waiting on T2 update. Tia.
- petrengr1 - 02-19-2012
Sageo - The Poroman survey was a 27 km line of 2-D seismic line (North-South) that was done down the center of an Area of Mutual Interest (AIM). The seismic was shot on the boundary between the LNG license and the IOC license. To my knowledge IOC has never released any information on this survey but you can have a look at it on the LNG site at http://docsearch.derrickpetroleum.com/files/08730/LNG%20Energy%20November%202010%20Investor%20Presentation.pdf charts 12-17.
They had a previous presentation that I recall which showed a high in about the middle of the 27 km line on the IOC license that looked like it might be T-Rex. Here is a post I wrote 30-Jun-11 but the link does not work any more http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=26290&tid=274147&mid=274290&tof=-1&rt=1&frt=2&off=1
So many prospects, so few rigs.
- sageo - 02-19-2012
Pet-from your post to"Embassy" on 20 June 2011 you referenced the Darai lms. Do you know of any production from this fm in PNG eleswhere? I like your keen observation of most of the T-Rex location!(T-Rex and Seismo idea-think Tri/Bat-all one structure?!) With our limited capital,wouldn't JVs or farm-outs be a good option now,with time constraints on some of our PPLs? Thanks mucho. P.S.-I heaved a big sigh when I read your last words on this post-"So many prospects,so few rigs" !!
- petrengr1 - 02-20-2012
Sageo- The Darai Limestone and Puri Limestone are both names for the Miocene age limestone in different parts of PNG. IOC calls it the Puri Limestone. It has tested gas at Kuru and oil at Puri-1. And, of course, gas at Elk/Antelope. Probably also the offshore reefs. I do not think any of these fields have ever produced commercially.
See http://www.secinfo.com/d13bp2.zb.d.htm
Page 11 of 22 under “Reservoir” for a little additional information.
I believe JV/Farm-outs would be a wonderful idea. I have been suggesting farm-outs as far back as July 28, 2010 http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?bn=26290&tid=204904&mid=205480
- petrengr1 - 03-07-2012
March 5, 2012 Confirmation received! You like to shoot fish in a barrel? Now is your chance!
- Putncalls - 03-08-2012
Why are you so sure that the detection of marl and C! through C5 is a conformation? Just asking?