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IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - Printable Version

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RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - sageo - 11-23-2013

'admin' pid='32327' datel Wrote:["with all these rigs turing at once,sleep just evaded me"] Well, you better get some rest now, because once these drilling updates start piling up, we need you (and pet) here to make sense of them. For me, that's the most fun part by far, it's like unwrapping gifts at Christmas. You don't always get what you want though..

Admin - You sir, have to be a "scholar and a gentleman" ......to put me in the same catagory as Petrengr 1 is very humbling.(and I'm not just being modest). When I read his post , at times I am in awe of his knowledge.Also,we have 'many' on this board who "leave me in the dust" when it comes to their skill and smarts as to their math and financial understanding.( my thanks to all of them,by the way.) True,we don't always get what we would like in our gifts,but as some folks tell us....'.this time it's different' . [maybe like Tricera being massive instead of just "hugh".] GLTY.




RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - admin - 11-23-2013

Well, I think you're thoroughly deserve the praise (and so does pet, needless to say). If we would know in advance what was in those gifts, it wouldn't be half the fun, so some disappointments actually have a function. I fancy the odds though, and these increase with the number of rigs that are going to be drilling simultaneously...


RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - will2bgreat - 11-23-2013

Tree,

My experiences are somewhat different than most and these are tied with a $400M contract with Fluor Daniel, but I suspect a similar process will be followed.

The first thing Dr. Mike did when he came to IOC was look at the negotiations with Exxon.  He obviously wanted to make some changes.  The extent of these changes we can only speculate, but I think they were substantial.  I suspect he basically started a rebidding process, dividing IOC bidding up into the pieces to match how he thinks IOC should be developed to maximize shareholder value  That said, the rebidding process proceeded very quickly with the previous bidders.  He asked each bidder to put together their development plans for E/A (and potentially other areas).  These plans will eventually become part of the contract with IOC and they included engineering, construction, schedule, costs, and of course payments to IOC.  He currently has these proposal hand and this is what his team was able to go to the banks with and get the $250M loan.

The next step, is where we are now.  He will probably ask the bidders to come and present their proposals to his team; probably a day per bidder.  This will serve many purposes.  The first of which is to determine if their proposal makes technical sense.  The second is to understand the bidders team; do they have the right culture for IOC, do they understand PNG, how do they resolve conflict during the question and answer session, etc.?  These presentations are critical.  Why?  Dr. Mike will meet with his team after these presentations and they will align on who the successful bidder(s) are for IOC.  I suspect this will be done by the end of November.  For the folks in the know at IOC, find out when these presentation occur and you will know the bidders.  I will even go so far to say that the bidders will be giving their presentation on consecutive days, one after another to the IOC team.

At this point, the deal is fundamentally done.  They will invite the leading bidder back and ask them to modify their proposal in some given areas, gain their alignment on these areas, and IOC is off and running with the new bidder.  The only thing left is to document the reasons why the bidder was selected and bring in the lawyers to finalize the paperwork.  This paperwork will take time to complete and is pretty irrelevant to the process.  To this day, I cannot tell you when our contract was signed, but it was something like 30/60 days after announcement and the winning bidders people were already on the ground and equipment was being ordered by that time.

Just the thoughts from a simple engineer.




RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - Movieguy - 11-23-2013

Will2, I know nothing of how these kinds of negotiations are done, and can only speculate in regard to practical business concepts. However, if the process you are speculating is true, then Hession's statement along the lines of "any day could be the final day" would be inaccurate or even a lie, because you outline a process that takes many days to occur. Since I take Hession at his word, I think what you outlined is in error, or was nearly entirely done prior to the conference call.


RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - strategyguy536 - 11-24-2013

We are all speculating here. I suspect that what Will2 has said has happened, or something much like it, and that in fact much of it had occurred before the last CC. As I recall Hession said detailed planning was going on with "the partner" as well as negotiations. Whether all potential partners are as far along in planning and detailed proposals as the lead candidate (very likely XOM, at least at the time of the CC) or not we do not know.

When Hession said "any day..." he could mean that on any day one bidder could meet all the requirements of IOC and be so far ahead of others that the IOC BOD could decide in that bidder's favor.


RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - sageo - 11-24-2013

Admin,Will2,Movie and Strat -- Thank you guys for your fine thoughts and explanations! However,I beleive that within the next 38 days we will know if MH is a great "do-er" or just a great"think-er". I guess you could say that I've bet my "Jed Clampett big money" (that Mr. Drysdale has in his bank) on the "do-er" side of the ledger! Good luck,gentlemen.




RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - strategyguy536 - 11-24-2013

Sageo, I hope for all our sakes that your be of the Clampett clan level is a great one. I am up to my neck in this one, too.


RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - sageo - 11-24-2013

'strategyguy536' pid='32382' datel Wrote:Sageo, I hope for all our sakes that your be of the Clampett clan level is a great one. I am up to my neck in this one, too.

 Strat--Good for you. Me too....as my kind and loving 'sweetheart' says,"honey,you are up to your eyeballs in this one". Well, to cite an old phrase"if the good Lord is willin' and the creek don't rise",we wtll all be ok. GLTY.




RE: IOC/XOM Deal Struck? - will2bgreat - 11-24-2013

'sageo' pid='32381' datel Wrote:

Admin,Will2,Movie and Strat -- Thank you guys for your fine thoughts and explanations! However,I beleive that within the next 38 days we will know if MH is a great "do-er" or just a great"think-er". I guess you could say that I've bet my "Jed Clampett big money" (that Mr. Drysdale has in his bank) on the "do-er" side of the ledger! Good luck,gentlemen.

Sageo,

I do believe as well.  I have been nothing but impressed with Dr. Mike and I believe he will deliver.  My only attempt was to give my explaination as to where we are in the process.  I think he is doing a great job with IOC by providing great project management to the team.  But more importantly, he has brought a vision that he can execute for IOC.  Phil had a vision, but he could not implement it for whatever reason; Dr. Mike will deliver.

Good luck longs.