'trans' pid='50516' datel Wrote:Peteng says it could take up to 2 weeks to do the work to start drilling into reservoir from that news release, take it fwiw. So I figure 1-2 weeks prep

Thx Trans/Pet.

'Kaliboo' pid='50286' dateline='<a href="tel:1412126 Wrote:

Thought I'd share this postive change of view.

I was looking over my notes back in July and a letter I sent previously to Dr. Hession regarding the press release on the wells where they announced the Wahoo suspension as well as the status of Bobcat and Raptor.

At that time there was no mention of problems in Raptor with the Orubadi shale and the well was "progressing slightly slower than first estimated".  This was actually excellent news at the time but MH bungled the delivery, starting off with the bad news about Wahoo.  Then he failed to present Raptor in the positive light it was in at the time.  Although it is a very late arrival, Raptor is now finally at the doorstep of the target zone and is preparing to run 7" casing, as we have just been told.  They never mentioned sidetracking Raptor back in the July update, whereas at the time Bobcat had already been sidetracked TWICE.  The 7" casing that Raptor is about to run is an OK size casing if they get it to TD..  If they stick it high, they may have a 5" liner contingency to enable them to drill to TD if they have a very short distance to go.  Or they could drill with 5" casing to TD out of the 7", if the connections are designed for that.  That's been done elsewhere.  But drilling through 5" casing while possible, may not be very feasible given these formations.  It just all depends how shallow they stick the 7" if that ugly scenario visits us.  In any case for Raptor, that is about the worst likely thing to happen in the near term other than finding a dry hole.

But again, connecting the dots of the two reports on Raptor, I have not heard any talk of problems with the Orubadi shale in this well.  So the fact they have not mentioned that is a big positive or they just selectively omitted it.  But clearly they ran into some kind of problems because that was quite a while back.  In any case I'm a little more positive on Raptor now than yesterday after looking back, mainly because of the absense of Orubadi problems.  Note that they did NOT mention testing any surprise shallower interval.  So I think we have to assume that did not happen.

Bobcat on the other hand - has nothing positive.  It stinks.  With two sidetracks already way back in early July and NOW they are still fighting, it sounds terrible.  I'm wondering if they restarted very shallow (essentially a new well).  My base expectation is they will have to give up at some point.  This seems like pulling a rabbit out of hat, that you just pulled out of another rabbits mouth.  Or they might do another Wahoo type suspension.

Lastly with Wahoo parked, IMO they should be in no hurry to get back to it unless the idle rig is burning a hole in their pocket.  Clearly they bit off way more than they can chew.  They should get at least the first Antelope well finished and done right, before starting any new wells or restaring Wahoo.  Then with as much concentration and attention as they can muster, they can consider restarting Wahoo or any other exploration well.

They need to digest all of these mistakes and figure out what actually works and WHO inside or outside of the company can drill a well right.  Then they can resume.  At least if I were running the show, that's what I'd be doing based on the poor performance to date.  Yes it is a no-brainer that it is poor performance when you provide 60, 90 and 90 day estimates and exceed all 3 wells by well over 100% with no end date yet in sight.  Use or flush.

So above are my comments from a few weeks ago.  Looks like my optimism for raptor was correct.  I assume the casing they landed was the 7" they mentioned before.  So they likey already have log data if they had LWD tools - logging while drilling.  Regarding leakage of info to the press I don't think so.  One service company guy does not have the whole story or even much of a part that alone is worth much.  In some cases data screens are shielded with oil company reps ensuring security.  Remember these guys need jobs.

I was hoping for something thicker.  But I don't know what the expectation was supposed to be.  They may have hit water or different lithology confirming the bottom of the pay zone or there may be something preventing them from going deeper which could include a number of things.  The bottom line is they think they have something worth evaluating.  So this is wonderful.  So all we can do is wait.  Sounds like my guesstimate of mid November is very close on knowing the rest of the story.  With 7" down the risk of losing the well is essentially over.  For raptor it's time to bust open the treasure chest to see what's in it.  The comment on HC type is an interesting teaser and a little surprising.  Clearly they don't have any conclusive samples.

On Bobcat it appears the did pull a rabbit out a hat that was pulled out of another rabbit.  But as noted drilling out of 5" casing is tough.  The drill bit is around 4" OD tinker toy.  Stuff breaks really easy.  You have to be very careful.  Also logging tools are more limited.  Drilling will be ultra slow.

Overall I think we should be ecstatic given the two wells AND especially the new communication policy.  The shareholders have tolerated much crap for a long long long time.  I'm hoping this is the new trend that will be sustained.  If so, an update on wahoo plans should be delivered in a month or less.  This is the easy waiting game now

'Kaliboo' pid='51126' datel Wrote:

'Kaliboo' pid='50286' dateline='<a href="tel:1412126 Wrote:

Thought I'd share this postive change of view.

I was looking over my notes back in July and a letter I sent previously to Dr. Hession regarding the press release on the wells where they announced the Wahoo suspension as well as the status of Bobcat and Raptor.

At that time there was no mention of problems in Raptor with the Orubadi shale and the well was "progressing slightly slower than first estimated".  This was actually excellent news at the time but MH bungled the delivery, starting off with the bad news about Wahoo.  Then he failed to present Raptor in the positive light it was in at the time.  Although it is a very late arrival, Raptor is now finally at the doorstep of the target zone and is preparing to run 7" casing, as we have just been told.  They never mentioned sidetracking Raptor back in the July update, whereas at the time Bobcat had already been sidetracked TWICE.  The 7" casing that Raptor is about to run is an OK size casing if they get it to TD..  If they stick it high, they may have a 5" liner contingency to enable them to drill to TD if they have a very short distance to go.  Or they could drill with 5" casing to TD out of the 7", if the connections are designed for that.  That's been done elsewhere.  But drilling through 5" casing while possible, may not be very feasible given these formations.  It just all depends how shallow they stick the 7" if that ugly scenario visits us.  In any case for Raptor, that is about the worst likely thing to happen in the near term other than finding a dry hole.

But again, connecting the dots of the two reports on Raptor, I have not heard any talk of problems with the Orubadi shale in this well.  So the fact they have not mentioned that is a big positive or they just selectively omitted it.  But clearly they ran into some kind of problems because that was quite a while back.  In any case I'm a little more positive on Raptor now than yesterday after looking back, mainly because of the absense of Orubadi problems.  Note that they did NOT mention testing any surprise shallower interval.  So I think we have to assume that did not happen.

Bobcat on the other hand - has nothing positive.  It stinks.  With two sidetracks already way back in early July and NOW they are still fighting, it sounds terrible.  I'm wondering if they restarted very shallow (essentially a new well).  My base expectation is they will have to give up at some point.  This seems like pulling a rabbit out of hat, that you just pulled out of another rabbits mouth.  Or they might do another Wahoo type suspension.

Lastly with Wahoo parked, IMO they should be in no hurry to get back to it unless the idle rig is burning a hole in their pocket.  Clearly they bit off way more than they can chew.  They should get at least the first Antelope well finished and done right, before starting any new wells or restaring Wahoo.  Then with as much concentration and attention as they can muster, they can consider restarting Wahoo or any other exploration well.

They need to digest all of these mistakes and figure out what actually works and WHO inside or outside of the company can drill a well right.  Then they can resume.  At least if I were running the show, that's what I'd be doing based on the poor performance to date.  Yes it is a no-brainer that it is poor performance when you provide 60, 90 and 90 day estimates and exceed all 3 wells by well over 100% with no end date yet in sight.  Use or flush.

So above are my comments from a few weeks ago.  Looks like my optimism for raptor was correct.  I assume the casing they landed was the 7" they mentioned before.  So they likey already have log data if they had LWD tools - logging while drilling.  Regarding leakage of info to the press I don't think so.  One service company guy does not have the whole story or even much of a part that alone is worth much.  In some cases data screens are shielded with oil company reps ensuring security.  Remember these guys need jobs.

I was hoping for something thicker.  But I don't know what the expectation was supposed to be.  They may have hit water or different lithology confirming the bottom of the pay zone or there may be something preventing them from going deeper which could include a number of things.  The bottom line is they think they have something worth evaluating.  So this is wonderful.  So all we can do is wait.  Sounds like my guesstimate of mid November is very close on knowing the rest of the story.  With 7" down the risk of losing the well is essentially over.  For raptor it's time to bust open the treasure chest to see what's in it.  The comment on HC type is an interesting teaser and a little surprising.  Clearly they don't have any conclusive samples.

On Bobcat it appears the did pull a rabbit out a hat that was pulled out of another rabbit.  But as noted drilling out of 5" casing is tough.  The drill bit is around 4" OD tinker toy.  Stuff breaks really easy.  You have to be very careful.  Also logging tools are more limited.  Drilling will be ultra slow.

Overall I think we should be ecstatic given the two wells AND especially the new communication policy.  The shareholders have tolerated much crap for a long long long time.  I'm hoping this is the new trend that will be sustained.  If so, an update on wahoo plans should be delivered in a month or less.  This is the easy waiting game now

'Kaliboo' pid='50474' dateline='<a href="tel:1412519 Wrote:

'Putncalls' pid='50468' dateline='<a href="tel:1412490 Wrote:

Kaliboo,

You do make a lot of sense. But if your right Raptor should wrap up the doubt and fairley soon?

Well here's a rough estimate.  Since they made the announcement on Sept 30, let's say as of today they have drilled to the top of the zone (to make sure it's there) AND they have run 7"  casing.  Next steps on average each take about a week.

1.  Drill out of 7" casing and drill the entire payzone to TD.

2. Conduct logging, sampling and sidewall coring operations.

3. Rig up to conduct production test.

4. Conduct production testing and pressure build ups.

At this point they have all the data they are going to get.  Alternatively when they drill out of the casing, they could be set up to run core barrels to obtain whole core.  IF so, add another week prior to the production test.

5.  The rest of the operations are rigging down the test equipment and temporaritly abandoning the well, if it is a keeper.  But this is after they have all the data, so you don't count it as regards the date of the announcement.

6.  Post test analysis.  THey are doing the analysis in real time as they are getting the data.  They are taking the log, PVT , sample, and production test data and are updating their static and dynamic geologic and reservoir models.  All of this is aimed at generating new HC's originally in place and recovery efficiencies.  These two directly translate to the resource volume (gas and oil) which one day become reserves (we hope).

So as cautious as Hession is he may want to allow time for a lot of analysis  before saying anything OR he may just give a light report that says "We logged XX feet of gas bearing pay.  We conducted a production test at XXX MMCFPD  for XX hrs."  So I think Hession will want to know in crystal clear terms how good, how mediocre, or how poor the outcome is so that his message is appropriately hedged to ensure he does not stumble again.  So add another week for this.  Too much longer and info starts leaking out, if not right away.

So when could an announcement be?

IF it's a dry hole or all water or too small to bother, then we may know within 1-2 weeks.  At this juncture, more delay is most likely a good thing if in fact they got the 7" casing to TD.

IF they have hit a nice pay zone and done all the steps above, then an announcement could be in 5-6 weeks.  Say by mid November.  It would be nice to have a great result before Thanksgiving.  That would be just one more thing to be thankful for.

Looks like they have complete step 1 and 2 and maybe 3 above on raptor.  They will now start the rest.  From here forward longer delay is most likely good news.  So I'm expecting the rest of the story as early as 2 weeks from now and maybe later.