'trans' pid='51677' datel Wrote:

[quote='SamAdams' pid='51673' dateline='1415290771']

This is not shorting, its lack of buying.  While the SB coverage is a feather in their cap, how that research recommendation gets translated by thier institutional sale folks and presented to instituitonal managers is the key.  IOC still suffers from a lack of credibilty in a wide swath of the buy side community.  I won't go through why as that's been covered by many here but it still exists.  I am not sure what turns that tide.  Sometimes it happens when least expected.  More coverage helps, but execution and hitting deadlines is what works over time.  While Raptor may not immediately add much value from a financial modelling point of view, I do believe exploration success will build credibility and I think the delays, for whatever reasons this year, hurt them on this issue.  Arbitration getting settled will also help as well. I think those doing the work won't wait for detailed confirmation from the certification wells to place their bets but will probably wait until other risks are removed or diminished, such as exploration and arbiitration.

disagree, I track the numbers....the shorts are active and have been.  they blunt what buying that is going on

********

I'm not saying that there is zero shorting.  Just that we are on pace for an average volume day (i.e. a lack of interest from new buyers).  If we had double the average volume, and also no pps increase, I would be more inclined to "credit" the shorts for the stagnant pps.  IMO, it's not moving up today mainly because the news has attracted little or no new interest from buyers. 

I keep telling myself that what some view as a lack of interest is really the exercise of an abundance of caution. Time will tell, but I am encouraged.

Calaban, that's an astute observatoin.  There is clearly no urgency here to buy the stock.  Weak energy tape generally and then comany specific reasons such as arbitration, exploration etc.  At some point as these get resolved those  weighing the issues will be able to make a call on the risk/reward on the certificaiton #s.  Some may take the view its better to buy the stock higher, say $68 or more, as it gets derisked versus plowing in here.  A bit counter intuitive but if you were an energy analyts looking at this name for the first time , you have to decide when is the right time to recommend the name to your PM.  More risk averse types might be watching the arbitration issue and taking it more seriously than some here, not fully knowing all the ins and outs.

'Getitrt2' pid='51682' datel Wrote:I go back to the "news" not being that new or significant so far, and the stock IS up a couple of percent in a very dull market. Even if it were attracting "new interest" from institutional/large potential buyers, I don't think they would be reacting immediately. IMO that is just not how they operate; there would be multiple people getting involved and evaluating and moving toward joint capital allocation and buy decisions.

******

Perhaps, but inconsequential volume indicates "retail" is also uninterested.  If a favorable arbitration resolution doesn't pop the pps, I wonder what the next event will be that I should target?  Some sort of end game (whether it's MikesIOC's plan or not) would be nice.  This is afterall an investment.  Again, we wait.

'CAC' pid='51667' datel Wrote:

I expected to see $65 today.  This is good news, correct? (at least compared to the alternative).  Up less than a dollar on a whopping 55,000 shares traded?  Let's be honest for a second....nobody, except for exisiting shareholders who are emotionally invested (including me), seems to care about this stock.  I know many on this board are frustrated by MikesIOC and his constant calls for them to sell the company but it would at least create shareholder value.  That never seems to come with any of the other supposed "catalysts".  I waited 4 years for the "transformative deal'".  When it came, the pps got slaughtered.  Then it was..."yeah, but wait for drilling results".  Okay, we got some today.  Nothing definitive perhaps...but not a dry hole either...generally "good".  And the pps does nothing.  No increased volume even. 

How many "next events" are going to come and go and leave us unfulfiled?  Can anybody say with confidence that a favorable arbitration ruling will move the pps...or that good Wahoo results (if we are lucky enough for that to occur) a year from now will definitely make the pps rise?  Noooobody cares about this stock.  It is very frustrating.

The truth hurts, and CAC nailed it.  There is no buying interest in Interoil, regardles of the news.

If one looks at a weekly chart of IOC it is very apparent that volume has been extremely low since early April of this year.  That is over 7 months of volumes much lower than at any time since late 2006, and you could claim even earlier.  We can guess at the reasons for this, and we can guess at what news will FINALLY create buying interest, but if you acknowledge reality, than accept that fact.

It is this lack of buying interest from any source that prompts some on this board (but not just MikesIOC and me) to wish for a buyout.  As Wayne Andrews said, that is how you get true value.  We all think IOC is worth way more than its current price, but "nothing" seems to gain it much appreciation (recovering from new lows is not stock appreciation).  By definition, a buyout achieves proper valuation, with all the knowns and unknowns mixed together into a final price.  Alas, it seems it will not happen, and I appreciate those who tried to explain why . . . but a guy can dream. . .