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+--- Thread: Goldman Sachs upgrades IOC (/showthread.php?tid=8918)
RE: Goldman Sachs upgrades IOC - admin - 08-04-2015
'Palm' pid='61334' datel Wrote:Not as sold on wind, but solar is making huge strides. And batteries are getting close.
Even as a long-term solar bull I recognize that this isn't going to happen overnight, at least not fast enough for me to really worry about InterOil. Germany has displayed first mover disadvantage (embarking on a huge subsidized solar build out when panels were 10x the price they are today) and shot themselves in the foot (expensive electricity, intermittency problems which is messing with the business model of utilities, etc.). When there is a strong brisk in Denmark, it produces more electricity than the country can consume and prices become negative.
It will take another decade to mature, especially with storage, and then several decades to build out.
But today, the likes of First Solar and others build commercial solar farms in the US that can compete with the grid, even in states not known for their sunny climate, this isn't a pipe dream.
RE: Goldman Sachs upgrades IOC - Palm - 08-04-2015
Agree and being in industry I see the numbers constantly. But don't discount solar too much. Some of new installs are more than competing today. And the batteries will help but not completely necessary. They are subsidized no doubt but gradually they are getting to point of being competitive where subsidy is not necessary. This is in uses to supply power to keep from adding new plants. And where that happens everyone wins.
More work to do but happening quickly.
RE: Goldman Sachs upgrades IOC - Putncalls - 08-04-2015
The fuel cost for a combined cycle gas turbine with 50% efficiency is about 6 cents per KWH using 10$/MCF NG.
A 2015 Sun Power Solar panel is about 4$/watt or 12 cents per KWH using a 20 year life, 3.5% money and 8HR/day of sun.
That includes no installation, maintenance or real estate costs. The panels will NEVER get more efferent according to Boltzmann.
http://sroeco.com/solar/learn-solar/solar-panel-comparison/
RE: Goldman Sachs upgrades IOC - sydbod - 08-04-2015
(08-04-2015, 03:13 PM)Putncalls Wrote: .... A 2015 Sun Power Solar panel is about 4$/watt.........../
OUCH ... that is expensive.
We purchase solar panels at less than au$1 per watt. (one just has to take a look at prices on eBay .. etc.)
RE: Goldman Sachs upgrades IOC - Getitrt2 - 08-06-2015
It is also my understanding that the new US long-term plan calls for tasking each State to come up with its own plan to reduce emissions by the targeted amounts, and this is really long-term, although it needs to start.
In the meantime, China (and India I think) is still mostly coal, and needing and wanting to replace with gas as much as possible.
None of this causes me the least bit of concern about IOC and its low-cost strategically well located gas. Furthermore, finding some oil to sell into that market in upcoming years would also be great (and shorter-term).