'Putncalls' pid='73894' datel Wrote:How is Botten's plan spoiled? This news from OSH insures a yes vote from IOC. OSH still gets another LNG facility. Does XOM already have this baked into their plan?

Spoiled?  How about telling Total SA that OSL only has at least enough gas from the two combined fields (800 miles apart) to provide TOT with a 1 train production of LNG.

(07-15-2016, 02:18 PM)SupaSage2003 Wrote:

(07-15-2016, 12:10 PM)Stavros Wrote: XOM now knows what they must beat - - - it's an all scrip deal with OSH valued at about US$ 44.00 It seems to me that XOM will now pull the trigger on their Superior Proposal at about $50

It will be interesting to see where IOC shares trade tomorrow.  Based on some figures I've compiled, the implied CVR value (vs. the value per share of the all-scrip offer) over the period May 20 through June 30 (after the OSH bid until right before the rumor that another bidder exists) has averaged about $2.64.  Adding that to the current $43.32 (derived from OSH's current price of AUD $7.05), I arrive at $45.96.  I would think that is roughly where the shares could trade tomorrow.  If the market's view on the final resource estimate decreases, so should that $2.64 number.  At the worst, I don't think the shares should trade below $43.32 because if they do, they will essentially imply that Antelope 7 will not increase the final resource estimate at all AND that no other bidder (i.e., Exxon) will emerge and that we will have to accept Oil Search's all scrip offer.  So in my mind, $43.32 is the "back up the truck" price level tomorrow.

If Exxon does in fact bid 10% higher (over the value of the current OSH scrip offer) to win over IOC shareholders, that would mean it bids $47.65.  Adding the average CVR value of $2.64, I arrive at $50.29 per share.  It would seem that is where IOC's share price could stabilze immediately and near term.  Of course, for Exxon to ensure that its bid is deemed "superior" by InterOil's BOD, Exxon might bid something materially higher than $47.65, which would put IOC's price at post-bid stabilized price at somewhere over $50.29.  In my view, Exxon might offer 20% more to ensure they get IOC's board to deem their offer to be superior.  In that case, the all scrip value would be $51.98.  Adding the $2.64 CVR value would get us to $54.62 while we wait for Ant 7 to be drilled and the final resource number to be disclosed.

Hope that helps frame my thinking on the IOC situation.  Feedback would be appreciated!

Everything you say makes sense to me, Supa Sage.

= = = > FOR THIS FIRST ROUND.

I am convinced, as is Phil Mulacek AND PETRENGR1, that E/A has well over 10 Tcfe in combined gas and condensate.

I think XOM has also come to that conclusion.

THEREFORE, XOM knows they can pay far more than $50 per share of IOC and eventually get most of their money back from TOTAL under the SPA payments

TOTAL also knows this, and will surely try to acquire IOC themselves.

Does anyone know the regulations?

If XOM buys us out and includes a CVR, as a non-operator minority JV partner, are they technically allowed to provide data to the resource evaluators?  Or, is that privilege for the operator only?

Are there actual regs as to who can provide the data?

'Putncalls' pid='73894' datel Wrote:How is Botten's plan spoiled? This news from OSH insures a yes vote from IOC. OSH still gets another LNG facility. Does XOM already have this baked into their plan?

So you think giving away all of IOC for the partial value of E/A is now a good deal?

I should just go get a tin bill and pick sh*t with the chickens.

'ebster123' pid='73907' datel Wrote:The numbers Peter Botten puts out are much lower than the numbers MH strongly suggested were there. If information was held back MH would be the one to have known best, before he went to the dark side. Not to say PB does not know the numbers but as suggested certifies don't. Seems like the UN investigators in Iran. MH is a criminal if this is the case and needs to be in JAIL!! Besides, he seems as though he might like the comradeship!

Not quite sure but understand you to mean PB spoke the truth to power just like the UN investigators who couldn't find an active nuclear weapons program.

Now I'm a whole lot more interested in knowing why those two certifying agencies were considered by Hession as "tainted". What if anything is hidden in their working papers. We know the two were given instructions on the types of appraisal models they were to use.  Were there other constraints as well?

(07-15-2016, 02:00 PM)Putncalls Wrote: Well.... At least it's a different perspective. Why? This implies a minuscule resource payment from TOT.

You are absolutely correct here Puts, leaving the questions why then was it so clearly stated "Oil Search is not required to make another payment to the Pac sellers" when their recent reserves pronouncement states so clearly otherwise?