Current and former intelligence officers, such as Eugene Rumer, say the keys to understanding Putin’s decision-making lie in Russian history and in his mission to create a Eurasian Union. Rather than rebuilding the Soviet Union, they say Putin is acting on a long-standing goal to create a buffer zone to counter the encroaching West, an ambition that suggests Crimea may be just an initial step. They warn that he may see Western attempts to punish Russia as further provocations.

Putin’s Motives Rooted in History Remain a Mystery Abroad - Bloomberg

A few more things to consider:

• Invoking the principle of self-determination for the people of Crimea to join Russia, could that establish a rather nasty precedent in a nation that is far from homogenic.Tsjechens invoking the same principle, anyone?
• While sanctions only work if everybody is in on them (which is more or less the case in Iran), Russia is still very dependent on Western investment and markets. Investors might have a few more jitters going into Russia after all this.
• Putin might have miscalculated longer-term in another way, could this trigger Western Europe into decreasing their energy dependence on Russia?
• Russia is very dependent on energy exports, they have insufficiently diversified their economy. This could very well backfire now if foreign capital and technology is more reluctant to go in, and/or they try to use it as a weapon
• Germany is military quite weak, but if Russian expansion continues, do they really want to awaken Germany as a military might?

'Tree' pid='39588' datel Wrote:May as well toss in E Berlin to Putin. He's just a nice guy and simply reunifying the Soviet Bloc. Admirable behavior.

Somehow I don't think there will be many people in East Berlin waving Russian flags and dancing in the streets if he attempted anything like that..

Economists have reacted to the turmoil in Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks by slashing their forecasts for economic growth in Russia. As chart 1 shows, consensus expectations for consumer price inflation this year are considerably higher than they were a few months ago, while expectations for GDP growth and the current account surplus are lower.

The Truth About Russia's Economy - Business Insider

There is already a short-term economic price, which can get significantly worse if the ruble keeps falling, exploding the foreign currency debt of Russian companies and/or other market turmoil.

The longer-term economic price could be much higher if:

• FDI into Russia is affected by the legal and international uncertainty
• Europe starts moving away from Russian gas

In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, a debate has ensued about whether the U.S. can use natural gas to counter Russia's global ambitions. However, some experts say the real front in the global energy battle lies not in oil and gas, but in the arena of nuclear technology. Moscow has quietly taken the lead in the $500 billion market for nuclear exports, building the lion's share of new facilities—and by extension earning influence and good will in key regions around the globe—as the U.S. sits on the sidelines.

Nuclear power in the new Cold War

'admin' pid='39727' datel Wrote:

In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, a debate has ensued about whether the U.S. can use natural gas to counter Russia's global ambitions. However, some experts say the real front in the global energy battle lies not in oil and gas, but in the arena of nuclear technology. Moscow has quietly taken the lead in the $500 billion market for nuclear exports, building the lion's share of new facilities—and by extension earning influence and good will in key regions around the globe—as the U.S. sits on the sidelines.

Nuclear power in the new Cold War

The conclusion this year of the long standing "megatons for megawatts" program makes Cameco (CCJ) a promising long term play, especially with (finally) the opening of its new Cigar Lake mine.

"We're not getting responses to calls or emails on deals that are supposed to close within weeks," one source at a Russian company told CNBC, speaking about Western companies whom they are supposed to buy goods from. "There have also been numerous anecdotal reports of orders for goods and services to and from Russia being canceled and of a number of financial transactions being halted or at least delayed," Stephen Leach, emerging market economist at Citi, pointed out.

Russia sanctions: Who’s losing out so far