Quote:Italians admitted to hospital for coronavirus are getting younger, a health official has claimed.  “The type of patient is changing,” Luca Lorini, the head of anaesthesia and intensive care at a northern Italian hospital, has said.  “They are a bit younger, between 40 to 45 years old and the cases are more complicated.” Dr Lorini, who works at a hospital in Bergamo, told radio programme RaiNews24: ”People are arriving who got ill six or seven days ago and treated themselves at home – and then their conditions became more and more critical.”  Twelve per cent of those who have been treated in intensive care are aged between 19 and 50, according to official figures released last week. Around 52 per cent are between 51 and 70 years old, with the rest all over 70.

Quote:What we have found in this data is that adults aged 20-50 make most of their contacts in workplaces. If those of us who can work remotely start doing so now, it will contribute to lowering overall transmission in the population. Another important finding is that people over 65 – who are particularly at risk from severe Covid-19 illness – make over half of their contacts in other settings (not home, school or work), such as shops, restaurants and leisure centres. 

By avoiding these interactions, people who are most at risk from the new coronavirus could halve their risk of infection. By changing our behaviour now, and sustaining these changes throughout the outbreak, we can significantly reduce our own risk of infection, and the risk to others, and by doing so help protect those most vulnerable. Sustainability is key here; these measures may reduce the reproduction number R, but as soon as they are lifted we could see transmission again, and another outbreak.

Quote:President Donald Trump’s plan to send $1,000 to every American, part of emergency stimulus of as much as $1.2 trillion to contain the economic hit from the coronavirus, is unlikely to stop a U.S. recession. The administration announced plans Tuesday to send the direct payments in coming days following several weeks of pressure from investors, economists, left-leaning think tanks and Republicans such as Utah Senator Mitt Romney. The stimulus will help replenish bank accounts amid widespread firings, closures and foregone pay, and may help with the eventual economic recovery. But several analysts say even with such sweeping measures the world’s largest economy won’t be able to avoid a contraction.

Quote:We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic—shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits—may have this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. We show that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete markets and liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesian supply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectors is not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets make the conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and job destruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss the effects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usual because the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplier feedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, can have magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closing down contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affected workers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency of fiscal policy

Quote:A growing number of economists are also losing hope that the collapse will be followed by a swift recovery. According to one analysis by Deutsche Bank, many companies and households will at first save money to pay off debts they have accumulated in the crisis. Analysts at the bank believe this would result in the economy taking not a V shape, but a U-shaped curve, meaning the collapse will be followed by a period of stagnation before growth starts again. New York University economics expert Nouriel Roubini believes even that is optimistic. He has recently begun speaking of an "I” scenario, a vertical, nearly uninterrupted decline in the economy, without any recovery in sight. Some economists fear that the corona crisis could spell the end of American economic dominance. Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff argues that, even though we shouldn’t underestimate the U.S.’s ability to creatively overcome adversity, it is unclear if it will succeed this time. He says that the pandemic could "prove to be the greatest threat to U.S. leadership and primacy of the dollar since World War II."

Quote:But on Friday, the entire country reported just 16 new cases, a sharp decline from a peak of 460 new infections on March 28. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Friday the National Cabinet will meet on May 8 to consider easing lockdown measures, bringing forward the discussion from the week beginning May 11. "Australians have earned an early mark," Morrison said. "We need to restart our economy, we need to restart our society." In some states, the curve has completely flattened: Queensland hasn't reported any new cases since Monday, and South Australia has seen no new infections for more than a week. "No more cases in South Australia. This is a landmark for us," South Australia Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said with a big smile during a press briefing on Wednesday.

Quote:Fewer than one in five of the British public believe the time is right to consider reopening schools, restaurants, pubs and stadiums. The findings, in a new poll for the Observer, suggest Boris Johnson will struggle to convince people to return their lives to normal if he tries to ease the lockdown soon.

Quote:But Belgium’s high numbers have less to do with the spread of the disease and more to do with the way it counts fatalities. Its figures include all the deaths in the country’s more than 1,500 nursing homes, even those untested for the virus. These numbers add up to more than half of the overall figure.

Quote:A recent Deloitte survey asked people in select countries whether they agree with the statement: “I feel safe going to the store right now.” In the US, only 34% of those surveyed responded with “agree” or “strongly agree.” This mindset is likely in line with what many retailers expected as they come up with strategies to reopen stores while encouraging hygiene and social distancing..