'Getitrt2' pid='19033' datel Wrote:My impression is that the government will not be making the decision on the partner or having any signing ceremony in Japan or wherever, but that IOC knows what is acceptable and the BOD is making the partner selection and essentially may already have, and that Duma does not have any significant problem with or represent any danger to that process. Once IOC and the new partner have a binding preliminary agreement signed, the government would be notified probably in conjunction with an announcement of the partner selection and sell down deal, before any final agreement with the government. IOC and the new partner(s) might even work with the government, including Duma and the rest of the team for that, on a final "gas agreement" without bothering with a formal modified "Project Agreement". As far as I know the government still has the additional 27.5% option in conjunction with the second project phase at commercial prices established with the sell down, but with an acceptable new partner on board would probably not exercise it with the final gas agreement. I understand all bidders were fully aware of that issue and prepared to work with it. Whether the Gulf LNG interest ends up in Petromin or NPCP, although it sounds like probably the latter, is an internal PNG issue that IOC probably will not be involved in; but I think that may be the real primary issue that Duma is most involved in or perhaps concerned with. He is technically correct about the current project approval being "conditional", which was actually stated as such in IOC's February 27 year-end PR, although omitted in a subsequent quote; but the Company expects that the deal will meet all those conditions and not be the problem shorts would like people to think or fear. I think the final binding bids deadline process was as intended and communicated, and that no "rebidding" process is stretching things out, although that doesn't mean a takeover attempt and/or competition couldn't break out at any time. I believe they are working through all the various complex terms of a binding agreement that is satisfactory to all parties and will make an announcement when that is reached, but only when they have that, hopefully sooner rather than later, whatever that means.

Getit,

Stupid question time.  Accepting the fact that they will be talking IOC; could they be discussing the Duma article and it's impacts on the JKM bid.  Maybe Japan wants some assurances from PNG.

Good luck longs.

'Getitrt2' pid='19033' dateline='<a href="tel:1363651 Wrote:My impression is that the government will not be making the decision on the partner or having any signing ceremony in Japan or wherever, but that IOC knows what is acceptable and the BOD is making the partner selection and essentially may already have, and that Duma does not have any significant problem with or represent any danger to that process. Once IOC and the new partner have a binding preliminary agreement signed, the government would be notified probably in conjunction with an announcement of the partner selection and sell down deal, before any final agreement with the government. IOC and the new partner(s) might even work with the government, including Duma and the rest of the team for that, on a final "gas agreement" without bothering with a formal modified "Project Agreement". As far as I know the government still has the additional 27.5% option in conjunction with the second project phase at commercial prices established with the sell down, but with an acceptable new partner on board would probably not exercise it with the final gas agreement. I understand all bidders were fully aware of that issue and prepared to work with it. Whether the Gulf LNG interest ends up in Petromin or NPCP, although it sounds like probably the latter, is an internal PNG issue that IOC probably will not be involved in; but I think that may be the real primary issue that Duma is most involved in or perhaps concerned with. He is technically correct about the current project approval being "conditional", which was actually stated as such in IOC's February 27 year-end PR, although omitted in a subsequent quote; but the Company expects that the deal will meet all those conditions and not be the problem shorts would like people to think or fear. I think the final binding bids deadline process was as intended and communicated, and that no "rebidding" process is stretching things out, although that doesn't mean a takeover attempt and/or competition couldn't break out at any time. I believe they are working through all the various complex terms of a binding agreement that is satisfactory to all parties and will make an announcement when that is reached, but only when they have that, hopefully sooner rather than later, whatever that means.

Getit, I think you got it.  I was in the process of starting to write essentially the same thing.  I believe the winner has been selected.  That is my "belief".  I KNOW the BoD has met.   The Japan trip is coincidental to what is going on. Duma's antics, or not, have no legal impact on the process.  I believe the winner was selected, signed docs returned to the winner and we now wait the return of the executed final docs.  Large companies and billions of dollars don't happen in 24 hours.   Next is govt. notification, Then press release, then all the other final  legal paperwork.  I believe it will be sooner, as in imminent ( days up to 2 weeks rather than later ( months).

IOC must choose, and I think they have.  That is not a bad thing, and in fact I think we find out it is a very good thing.  They would not have set a deadline without knowing they had a good bid in hand.  The IBers job is to set expectations and guide bidders to where they need to be to win.  Thats how they run IPOs and auctions.  They talk to everyone and "build the book".  That was all done prior to Feb. 28th and for the  bidders who showed  up, IMO, all are interested and highly motivated.

So my "guess" is the delay (if there is one and relatively speaking) is not related to IOC making a decision or any govt. snares, but simply the back and forth of legal docs to finalize the deal.  Imagine if the deal headline showed a $3 figure in front of the mcf

>Getit, I think you got it. I was in the process of starting to write essentially the same thing. I believe the winner has been selected. That is my "belief". I KNOW the BoD has met. The Japan trip is coincidental to what is going on. Duma's antics, or not, have no legal impact on the process. I believe the winner was selected, signed docs returned to the winner and we now wait the return of the executed final docs. Large companies and billions of dollars don't happen in 24 hours. Next is govt. notification, Then press release, then all the other final legal paperwork. <

I have no first hand experience, but it is my understanding of Japanese business practices that information flows and the important decisions are made in networks of informal relationships. This contrasts with American practices in which information flows and the important decisions are made in the formal hierarchy.

The Japanese trip may seem coincidental to us. To the Japanese it may be a central feature of the process.