ShareholdersUnite Forums
Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Printable Version

+- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb)
+-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: InterOil Forum (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=4)
+--- Thread: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens (/showthread.php?tid=10463)



Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Kaliboo - 05-23-2016

A few comments on considerations if some kind of better deal with OSH happens as most of us hope.  As we all know there are commodity price impacts weighing heavily on the current situation.  But once we get OSH shares, there is currency risk added to the list of risks we have to think about.  All comments/corrections are welcome.  This is my amateurish assessment.  Note: I didn't know how to insert these charts, so I added them to the PDF attached file.  Hope this works.

I constructed a normalized comparison stock price chart on Yazoo.  In the first chart the Y axis is normalized PPS.  The points converge at zero starting 10 years ago, showing the gain and losses since that arbitrary starting point.  Here’s what’s plotted.

OSH.AX PPS in normalized Australian currency (i.e., I believe this to NOT have a USD conversion impact on it as confirmed by the 2nd plot in Aus $ - not normalized. The curves are the same).

XOM PPS in normalized USD.  This is a proxy for how a “well managed” oil company should behave over the last 10 years of oil, gas and commodity cycles as well as the Great Recession and other market effects.

FXA.  This is an ETF that matches the price of the Australian dollar in USD.

BTU.  This is a proxy for the coal industry globally.  They were one of the largest publicly traded coal companies in the world with operations in Austrailia, USA, UK and elsewhere.  I owned them to ride up and then down from the “Coal Super Cycle” which is plotted on the chart.  They recently declared bankruptcy.  But I plotted this to show a basement effect of a disastrous commodity downturn.  They lost 99+% of their PPS value.  Doesn’t get any worse.  Gives interesting perspective.

Discussion Points:

  1.  Notice on a normalized basis how well OSH (in Aus $) and XOM in USD track.  In this time comparison around Jan 2009, the beginning of the recession recovery, OSH rose above XOM and has stayed above at a fairly consistent percentage difference.  Clearly 10 years ago was a good time to buy OSH, if currency effects are ignored.
  2. The coal “super cycle” ends at the peak in the BTU (bottom) curve around March 31, 2011 and a steep continual plummet proceeds from there forward.  That’s after surviving the Great Recession as shown in the first crash in 2007.  The end of the recession became the beginning of the super cycle, followed by a very slow, protracted death.
  3. At this same point (March 31, 2011) the Aus $ (shown by FXA) also peaks and begins a much slower decline.  Other commodity prices (e.g., steel and copper) are falling, but coal is crashing.  The Chinese GDP is slowing, but oil is still rising and LNG investment is surging.  The strong USD and quantitative easing, are working together with decrease in global demand for commodities to shrink the Aus $.
  4. Oil prices peak in ~July 2014 which occurs in the max points on the OSH and XOM curves.  Also LNG prices are starting to fall.  Both OSH and XOM curves show upward inflections at the most recent dates reflecting some upward oil price improvement.  But OSH is hammered more than XOM since the decline as you would expect.
  5. The second chart shows only OSH in Aux$.  It matches the OSH normalized curve in the top chart so this confirms there is no USD conversion of the data in the top chart.  What we don’t see in all of this is the OSH pps curve converted to USD using the conversion factor for each day of data.  But you can look at the FSX curve from March 31, 2011 forward and get a good idea.  A chart conversion to USD would result in all of the OSH pps data shifting downward by an increasing amount up to now.
  6. The third chart shows the price in USD of the Aus $ via the ETF FXA.  You can see that the current price of the Aus $ is fairly close to the low shown in Feb 2009.  Note the huge recovery of the Aus $ after Feb 2009 until it peaks in 2011 at the end of the coal super cycle at March 31.  Then it starts it's decline.
  7. WHAT ABOUT IOC?  I left IOC off the first chart on purpose.  If you add it, then you will see it dramatically outperforms all the other curves beginning in Jan 2009 with the recovery.  It is a crazy roller coaster but remains above all the other curves.....until it falls and just just kisses the OSH curve on Jan 31, 2016.  Then it begins a steep rise again above OSH and XOM.  Maybe that was a premonition.  But at least according to this charting tool, if you had invested in IOC exactly 10 years ago, then you would be well ahead of XOM and OSH.  But these charts obviously are very sensitive to the initialization date.E.g., in the 5 year, 2 and 1 year comparisons XOM comes out on top.  For all periods beyond the 1 year comarison (available in YahZoo) the Australian dollar (i.e., FXA) declines.  FWIW.

CONCLUSIONS:

  1.  OSH pps performance in Aus $ is pretty darn good.  More volatile than XOM as you would expect but holding up well through the downturn and outperforming XOM as you would hope for a small growing company.  Converting OSH pps chart to US$ would show a large price decline from March 31, 2001 forward to today.  So the value is very depressed if you live in US$.
  2. The currency and commodity values are near all time lows over this 10 year window.  This could be very good timing to jump horse to OSH to ride up 2 things: (1) The currency reversion to the mean.  I.e., as Aus $ rises back to the mean, that will pump up OSH shares in US$.  The commodity cycle is likely near a low.  Years of underinvestment will eventually cause the tide to turn.  The rise in the Aus$ can’t be too far off.  Also, faith in the USD may slip for other reasons such as e.g., election outcome.  (2) OSH pps should ride up both the oil and lng/gas rebounds as commodity prices in general begin to recover.
  3. So there potentially is a doubling effect on the investment value in OSH, positive and negative – commodity recovery and currency recovery or further worsening or a mixed bag.  The likelihood of both falling further seems limited.
  4. Then there is the performance of OSH itself which will add or take away value.  I don’t know a whole lot about them yet, but if Hession takes over, it would screw up what would otherwise look like a good investment opportunity given currency gain, commodity gain and company performance gain.




RE: Market and Currency Considerations "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016

Here Here! How could an accomplished man like Botten support Hession? OSH is now the LNG form PNG bet. Is it not the only one now?


RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016

Am I detecting some grief induced denial? What is so bad about OSH?


RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Stavros - 05-23-2016

1. The A$ will not rise again because there will be no return to a "coal supercycle"

2. Owning OSH Shares as a US-domiciled investor is a bad idea as things currently stand. It must become liquid somehow.

3. The CVR will, to my opinion, result in Short Term Capital Gain with a Basis of $ 0.00 - - - ALL PROCEEDS TAXED AT YOUR INCREMENTAL RATE IF THE SHARES ARE NOT IN YOUR IRA

4. WHY IN HEAVEN'S NAME do you want to take a deal now that is highway robbery? OSH is trying to acquire E/A for less than $7 per BOE WITH ZERO VALUE for anything else owned by IOC. They are then turning around and selling a major portion of E/A and all the other assets to TOTAL at a profit.

5. We wind up owning 14% of OSH when we should own at least 25% after the acquisition

THE DEAL IS OK IF WE GET FAIR VALUE

THE DEAL STINKS AT THIS OFFER.


RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016

1. LNG and oil are priced in US dollars?
2. I can't use OSH.AX shares as collateral? The tax form is not that bad.
3. I think the CVR basis is prorated?
4. Whatyagointodo? It sucks!
5. I agree but see #5


RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Stavros - 05-23-2016

The deal must be sweetened by 35% Putz


RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016

PM has 7%
It takes a 34% no vote.
Where is the other 23%.
I'll vote no but that << 1%


RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - ArtM72 - 05-23-2016

How about the poor guy who would be selling IOC at a loss AND have to pay the CVR tax at $0 basis ST capital gain?

No, this deal is just getting creepier. Now we have a thread reporting there may be a $60 million payment if IOC doesn't go through with it. WTF?