![]() |
|
Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Printable Version +- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb) +-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: InterOil Forum (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=4) +--- Thread: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens (/showthread.php?tid=10463) |
Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Kaliboo - 05-23-2016 A few comments on considerations if some kind of better deal with OSH happens as most of us hope. As we all know there are commodity price impacts weighing heavily on the current situation. But once we get OSH shares, there is currency risk added to the list of risks we have to think about. All comments/corrections are welcome. This is my amateurish assessment. Note: I didn't know how to insert these charts, so I added them to the PDF attached file. Hope this works. I constructed a normalized comparison stock price chart on Yazoo. In the first chart the Y axis is normalized PPS. The points converge at zero starting 10 years ago, showing the gain and losses since that arbitrary starting point. Here’s what’s plotted. OSH.AX PPS in normalized Australian currency (i.e., I believe this to NOT have a USD conversion impact on it as confirmed by the 2nd plot in Aus $ - not normalized. The curves are the same). XOM PPS in normalized USD. This is a proxy for how a “well managed” oil company should behave over the last 10 years of oil, gas and commodity cycles as well as the Great Recession and other market effects. FXA. This is an ETF that matches the price of the Australian dollar in USD. BTU. This is a proxy for the coal industry globally. They were one of the largest publicly traded coal companies in the world with operations in Austrailia, USA, UK and elsewhere. I owned them to ride up and then down from the “Coal Super Cycle” which is plotted on the chart. They recently declared bankruptcy. But I plotted this to show a basement effect of a disastrous commodity downturn. They lost 99+% of their PPS value. Doesn’t get any worse. Gives interesting perspective. Discussion Points:
CONCLUSIONS:
RE: Market and Currency Considerations "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016 Here Here! How could an accomplished man like Botten support Hession? OSH is now the LNG form PNG bet. Is it not the only one now? RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016 Am I detecting some grief induced denial? What is so bad about OSH? RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Stavros - 05-23-2016 1. The A$ will not rise again because there will be no return to a "coal supercycle" 2. Owning OSH Shares as a US-domiciled investor is a bad idea as things currently stand. It must become liquid somehow. 3. The CVR will, to my opinion, result in Short Term Capital Gain with a Basis of $ 0.00 - - - ALL PROCEEDS TAXED AT YOUR INCREMENTAL RATE IF THE SHARES ARE NOT IN YOUR IRA 4. WHY IN HEAVEN'S NAME do you want to take a deal now that is highway robbery? OSH is trying to acquire E/A for less than $7 per BOE WITH ZERO VALUE for anything else owned by IOC. They are then turning around and selling a major portion of E/A and all the other assets to TOTAL at a profit. 5. We wind up owning 14% of OSH when we should own at least 25% after the acquisition THE DEAL IS OK IF WE GET FAIR VALUE THE DEAL STINKS AT THIS OFFER. RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016 1. LNG and oil are priced in US dollars? 2. I can't use OSH.AX shares as collateral? The tax form is not that bad. 3. I think the CVR basis is prorated? 4. Whatyagointodo? It sucks! 5. I agree but see #5 RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Stavros - 05-23-2016 The deal must be sweetened by 35% Putz RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - Putncalls - 05-23-2016 PM has 7% It takes a 34% no vote. Where is the other 23%. I'll vote no but that << 1% RE: Market and Currency Considerations IF "a deal" with OSH Happens - ArtM72 - 05-23-2016 How about the poor guy who would be selling IOC at a loss AND have to pay the CVR tax at $0 basis ST capital gain? No, this deal is just getting creepier. Now we have a thread reporting there may be a $60 million payment if IOC doesn't go through with it. WTF? |