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Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - Printable Version

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Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - petrengr1 - 06-16-2016

Oil Search annual report http://www.oilsearch.com/Media/docs/OSH_AR16-a3d8b18e-1b65-4a66-a4a0-34826fa5db87-2.PDF ;

Foot notes for OSH annual report, page 124:

© Issued capital as at 10 March 2016 was:
^ 1,522,692,587 ordinary fully paid shares
^ 3,361,482 unlisted performance rights
^ 656,118 restricted shares
^ 1,230,450 share appreciation rights
^ 1,005,469 share rights

The trustee for the employee share plan holds 736,369 shares that are available to satisfy the exercise of employee rights and options and vesting of restricted shares. The shares in the trust are part of the issued capital.

OSH will issue another 411 million shares to buy IOC. What will this dilution do to the OSH stock price? This is a US$2.129 Billion deal but of course they are getting at least US$4.0 Billion in value so that should make the stock price go up.??
Of course we should not forget the big payment they will have to make to the IPI shareholders.

So they will be pushing 2 Billion shares outstanding if the OSH/IOC deal is approved by IOC shareholders. That is a LOT of shares!!!

I would like for some of you finance guys to tell us what it would take to move this stock $1/share?

So if I am an OSH shareholder what would have to happen for me to ever see the share price move from A$6.98/sh (US$5.18/sh) to A$8.33/sh ( US$6.18/share)?

Looks to me like they would have to add  US$2 Billion of value to the company for every US$1/sh increase in my holdings. How many times can they add US$2 Billion to the value of the company?

If I am looking for a big increae in share price help me understand why I would want to be an OSH shareholder. 


Thanks!


RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - Stavros - 06-16-2016

Thanks for your insights Pet.
I ALSO DO NOT WANT TO BE AN OSH SHAREHOLDER

First, OSH share price today is DOWN to A$ 6.60 and dropping every minute
Clearly, many OSH Shareholders decided they don't want to be Shareholders!

Second, the current NAV of OSH is US$ 7.4 Billion, with some positive cash flow from LNG sales and Oil sales
So the value of the company should grow over time as cash is accumulated and loans for their assets are paid off.

Third, the cash flow will increase if LNG and Oil prices rise over time ... WILL THEY?

As an investor, I'm happy to significantly outperform the Markets ... BUTT it doesn't happen as often as I want!

So, if I must become an OSH Shareholder, I would want to see OSH share price increase to 1.1 x A$6.60 = A$7.26 in the first year.
I suppose that's possible.

HOWEVER, I prefer to see IOC sold to someone(s) for an equivalent total of US$85, all of which is returned to IOC Shareholders.

With the CA$H in-hand, I can decide what to invest in next.

RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - katytrader - 06-16-2016

'petrengr1' pid='72303' datel Wrote:

Foot notes for OSH annual report, page 124:
© Issued capital as at 10 March 2016 was:
^ 1,522,692,587 ordinary fully paid shares
^ 3,361,482 unlisted performance rights
^ 656,118 restricted shares
^ 1,230,450 share appreciation rights
^ 1,005,469 share rights
The trustee for the employee share plan holds 736,369 shares that are available to satisfy the exercise of employee rights and options and vesting of restricted shares. The shares in the trust are part of the issued capital.
OSH will issue another 411 million shares to buy IOC. What will this dilution do to the OSH stock price? This is a US$2.129 Billion deal but of course they are getting at least US$4.0 Billion in value so that should make the stock price go up.??
Of course we should not forget the big payment they will have to make to the IPI shareholders. So they will be pushing 2 Billion shares outstanding if the OSH/IOC deal is approved by IOC shareholders. That is a LOT of shares!!!
I would like for some of you finance guys to tell us what it would take to move this stock $1/share?
So if I am an OSH shareholder what would have to happen for me to ever see the share price move from A$6.98/sh (US$5.18/sh) to A$8.33/sh ( US$6.18/share)?
Looks to me like they would have to add  US$2 Billion of value to the company for every US$1/sh increase in my holdings. How many times can they add US$2 Billion to the value of the company?
If I am looking for a big increae in share price help me understand why I would want to be an OSH shareholder. 

Thanks!

  You write as though share price is wholly under the control of the company.  OSH might do nothing especially noteworthy but benefit from an oil price spike, general rise of commodity prices, and rise of AUD.....pretty much the reverse of what caused its price (and IOC's price) to fall for the last two years.



RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - Putncalls - 06-16-2016

2+ LNG projects flowing 2 billion US dollars per year as the lowest cost producer in an energy hungry market.

RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - trans - 06-16-2016

'petrengr1' pid='72303' datel Wrote:

Foot notes for OSH annual report, page 124:
© Issued capital as at 10 March 2016 was:
^ 1,522,692,587 ordinary fully paid shares
^ 3,361,482 unlisted performance rights
^ 656,118 restricted shares
^ 1,230,450 share appreciation rights
^ 1,005,469 share rights
The trustee for the employee share plan holds 736,369 shares that are available to satisfy the exercise of employee rights and options and vesting of restricted shares. The shares in the trust are part of the issued capital.
OSH will issue another 411 million shares to buy IOC. What will this dilution do to the OSH stock price? This is a US$2.129 Billion deal but of course they are getting at least US$4.0 Billion in value so that should make the stock price go up.??
Of course we should not forget the big payment they will have to make to the IPI shareholders. So they will be pushing 2 Billion shares outstanding if the OSH/IOC deal is approved by IOC shareholders. That is a LOT of shares!!!
I would like for some of you finance guys to tell us what it would take to move this stock $1/share?
So if I am an OSH shareholder what would have to happen for me to ever see the share price move from A$6.98/sh (US$5.18/sh) to A$8.33/sh ( US$6.18/share)?
Looks to me like they would have to add  US$2 Billion of value to the company for every US$1/sh increase in my holdings. How many times can they add US$2 Billion to the value of the company?
If I am looking for a big increae in share price help me understand why I would want to be an OSH shareholder. 

Thanks!

my own opinion..

three segments to future value.

first,, status of oil one ear ahead.......I see 60-70 p/bbl on my own dd, maybe more

second, I see Aussy $$ making some strength +10% a reasonable est.

third,   osh needs ioc gas more than ioc needs osh and they're taking 30% or more of underlying value in this theft.

Overall if a deal close to $50 present is settled on, I see 12-15 most appreciation potential of 30-60%, Botten is not a fool as much as he is a crook.

That give a mid 17 potential of $60-80.

And I'll stand on it........trans



RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - jft310 - 06-16-2016

Interesting thoughts Trans . Thks.

RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - Justin94360 - 06-16-2016

Trans, assume you mean $60-$80 equivalent in 'old' IOC pps.

RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - sageo - 06-17-2016

Trans - Thanks for allowing me to smile this AM !  " Botten is not a fool as much as he is a crook"  <img src=" border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/biggrin.gif" />



RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - Thylacine-2 - 06-17-2016

'petrengr1' pid='72303' datel Wrote:

Foot notes for OSH annual report, page 124:
© Issued capital as at 10 March 2016 was:
^ 1,522,692,587 ordinary fully paid shares
^ 3,361,482 unlisted performance rights
^ 656,118 restricted shares
^ 1,230,450 share appreciation rights
^ 1,005,469 share rights
The trustee for the employee share plan holds 736,369 shares that are available to satisfy the exercise of employee rights and options and vesting of restricted shares. The shares in the trust are part of the issued capital.
OSH will issue another 411 million shares to buy IOC. What will this dilution do to the OSH stock price? This is a US$2.129 Billion deal but of course they are getting at least US$4.0 Billion in value so that should make the stock price go up.??
Of course we should not forget the big payment they will have to make to the IPI shareholders. So they will be pushing 2 Billion shares outstanding if the OSH/IOC deal is approved by IOC shareholders. That is a LOT of shares!!!
I would like for some of you finance guys to tell us what it would take to move this stock $1/share?
So if I am an OSH shareholder what would have to happen for me to ever see the share price move from A$6.98/sh (US$5.18/sh) to A$8.33/sh ( US$6.18/share)?
Looks to me like they would have to add  US$2 Billion of value to the company for every US$1/sh increase in my holdings. How many times can they add US$2 Billion to the value of the company?
If I am looking for a big increae in share price help me understand why I would want to be an OSH shareholder. 

Thanks!

Pet,  it looks to me like the String of Pearls thesis is still intact,  our chance for a high multi-bagger lost only because of the incompetence of IOC management.   With the info we have now,  do you believe that Hession and company  drilled in the wrong location at Wahoo and that Wahoo could still turn out to be a major dicovery?  Ditto for Raptor and Bobcat.



RE: Does the Number of OSH shares matter to an Investor? - jft310 - 06-17-2016

Phil Mulacek and Dave Hollsnd both thought Wahoo was drilled at the wrong spot . Interoil seismic slides clearly showed no red or blue indications where they were drilled . Hession insisted on their Wahoo site selection . With a successful well he would not be getting paid right away . He had $40 million reasons to not have a successful well .Amazing but true . How would a court react to testimony from Phil and Dave and a picture of the seismic results and the drilling results . Humm.