OSH's offer was $42 + CVR.  If there were around 10Ts, CVR would be worth around $24, which puts the acquisition price in the mid 60s.  Perhaps they believed they could manipulate that certification like they did the one just announced, but I'm guessing they would not have felt sure of that, so they were willing to pay in the the mid 60s.

The Exxon offer is $45 + CRP.  Based on this latest certification, the CRP is only going to be worth a few dollars, so let's generously call it $50 in total.  Many at SHU may have intelligent reasons to believe a properly (honestly) done certifaction, especially including A7, will be much higher than the one just announced, BUT an objective investor (like mutual fund managers) has to give a lot of credence to this latest certification.

So it seems like a no-brainer and a great potential win-win for OSH to come back with a "dramatically" higher single-number (no additional payment based on certification) up front offer, say $55.  This is much lower than they were likely willing to pay with their original offer (mid 60s), yet is considerably more than the Exxon offer appears to be based on the OSH certification (about $50).  I think IOC shareholders would choose such an offer over the curren Exxon offer as it provides a higher certainty payment, thus the potential win-win for OSH.  However, I do not think Exxon will be outbid, so they would likely counter higher, to the benefit of IOC shareholders.

My point is that such an offer would be basically risk-free to OSH, so they ought to try it, and it is possible they could succeed.

'Putncalls' pid='74137' datel Wrote:RJ says: How will this story end? InterOil’s board deems Exxon’s proposal to be “superior”; nonetheless, they still formally recommend the transaction with Oil Search. Oil Search has three days during which it can offer to amend the terms of the original deal. The question is: how badly does Oil Search want this acquisition? Needless to say, this is much more needle-moving for Oil Search than it is for Exxon, but on the other hand, it is not trivial to fight a bidding war against the world’s largest private-sector oil and gas company. So we are skeptical that Oil Search will come back with a revised offer, though we cannot rule that out. Let’s recall that if InterOil walks away, there will be a $60 million breakup fee (Oil Search gets 80%, Total gets 20%), which equates to $1.20 per IOC share. We’ve also heard the theory that maybe today’s news will spur Total to take matters into its own hands and put in its own bid for InterOil. To be crystal clear, we think such a scenario would be exceedingly unlikely. There is obviously still some uncertainty in the current situation, but IOC investors will likely have a definitive conclusion this week.

Aren't these the same or similar to all the folks who had predicted that Exxon wouldn't make an unsolicited offer?  The fact these Bozos call it "exceedingly unlikely" makes me suspect that it WILL happen.

'Putncalls' pid='74140' datel Wrote:They deserve a bit more respect than "bozo". There energy team is top notch in my book.

disagree

'trans' pid='74141' datel Wrote:

'Putncalls' pid='74140' datel Wrote:They deserve a bit more respect than "bozo". There energy team is top notch in my book.

disagree

They have been on top of the oil crash for years. Better than Citi and GS. Bozo would be an "I hear nothing" insult.

'Putncalls' pid='74137' datel Wrote:RJ says: How will this story end? InterOil’s board deems Exxon’s proposal to be “superior”; nonetheless, they still formally recommend the transaction with Oil Search. Oil Search has three days during which it can offer to amend the terms of the original deal. The question is: how badly does Oil Search want this acquisition? Needless to say, this is much more needle-moving for Oil Search than it is for Exxon, but on the other hand, it is not trivial to fight a bidding war against the world’s largest private-sector oil and gas company. So we are skeptical that Oil Search will come back with a revised offer, though we cannot rule that out. Let’s recall that if InterOil walks away, there will be a $60 million breakup fee (Oil Search gets 80%, Total gets 20%), which equates to $1.20 per IOC share. We’ve also heard the theory that maybe today’s news will spur Total to take matters into its own hands and put in its own bid for InterOil. To be crystal clear, we think such a scenario would be exceedingly unlikely. There is obviously still some uncertainty in the current situation, but IOC investors will likely have a definitive conclusion this week.

Puts, when you say "to be crystal clear"  " we think" (see above) ... are you referring to your company or to a group/company that compensates you?  ... just curious?

 I agree with Trans, 

Cyber, Au74, and others