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Thanks Uberville Residents - Tree - 07-18-2012
Anyone else remember when IOC was in the 40s/50s, quite a few geniuses's (they know who they are) predicting IOC would not see $70 again, even after SDs? Using pps as evidence, they took credit for being 'right' all along that IOC management sucked and they assigned more power to Duma than he wielded. Reality is, IOC story was postponed 1.5 yr due to an ill Somare and a bribing Shell. Fluctuating pps and artificial low pps this year in particular have been a boon to traders and accumulators. If Somare remained healthy, IOC is a year into construction today. The delay allowed T-2 and a tripling of prl15 bids, not a bad outcome for a delay out of management's hands. That's how you turn iron into gold.
Thanks to Uberville neighbors for providing information and insight which has been reality based. Whiners may be right, we may never see $70 again, just not how they meant.
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - strategyguy536 - 07-19-2012
Nice post, Tree. I had not looked at it quite that way. You are right. IOC management just "kept on truckin'," and look where we are. Blue skies ahead.
Nice post, Tree. I had not looked at it quite that way. You are right. IOC management just "kept on truckin'," and look where we are. Blue skies ahead.
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - Palm - 07-19-2012
Great post Treedaddy; and must add that in that time the idiot Phil negotiated the deal with PRE which increased the PRL 15 bids threefold. The IBs did not handle that deal. But Phil should be fired for sticking to his guns when others said he was ruining the company. Yep, would have been much better to sell for 0.75/mcf than 2.00+ that we have been hearing.
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - Tree - 07-19-2012
And another thing Duckglomerate........Since it has been revealed that a new tenant of 'capitalism' is a successful business is not made by:
1) Working harder than others
2) Preparing yourself to be smarter than others
3) Entrepreneurs don't build businesses, everyone else does.
I sure hope Phil, Collin and Dave all give us here on the MB the credit we deserve as obviously we took a business with zero and turned it into a 3.8 Billion dollar one. Our further efforts should yield a 12-40 Billion enterprise before long!!
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - admin - 07-19-2012
I'm not entirely convinced of this, to be honest. It is very well possible that if Somare hadn't fallen ill that IOC would be well on its way to construct the Gulf project.
However, there is an alternative hypothesis that I cannot totally ignore. It is possible that financing for that project wasn't in place, and was difficult to get, considering the fact that neither EWC nor Flex nor IOC has the required resources to fund the project.
I think the crux of the latter argument is the 'bankability' of the offtake deals. Perhaps these were not as bankable, as they were with traders, not with end demand related parties.
It could be that Duma simply got tired of waiting for the financing to emerge and intervened.
Now, personally I do not have enough data to discriminate between one or the other hypothesis, but I think both should be considered as I can't discard any of them either (perhaps others can, but so far I haven't been convinced to sway one way or another, to be honest).
As an additional note, if hypothesis II is right and the Gulf project had problems getting finance because of lack of bankable offtakes, with Duma losing patience, it also means that we have much less to fear from Duma should he return as Energy Minister than many perhaps assume..
And as an update to that, there are reasons to go with that scenario. After all, it is a fact that people like Chandler have put in a substantial part of their net wealth in InterOil, despite the supposed threat of Duma returning. This is actually something that one could argue is corroborative of hypothesis II (albeit far from conclusive evidence, Chandler could simply be wreckless, or assuming that Duma won't return or can be neutralized, etc.)
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - TomCrooz - 07-19-2012
Hey Tree, Palm just told me about your last customer...... Way to go you greedy capitalist! Hope it was a cash job lol.
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - Palm - 07-19-2012
Well, you know that IOC is just the beneficiary of a very kind PNG government don't you. Years ago the government went to Phil and said, "We know that there is a place up in them thar hills that is full of oil and gas. If you will follow us, we will take you to the exact spots and all you have to do is start poking holes in the ground and it will be like your famous Jed Clampett; it will just start bubbling out of the ground." From there the rest is history. And when Shell wanted to come back, all Duma was doing was being a good government host; they gave it to IOC and provided all the means for them to find the gas and condensates, now it's time to share and let Shell take over and do the rest. IOC should just be grateful for the opportunity presented by PNG's government. After all that's how all graet companies are made!
(07-19-2012, 02:00 AM)Tree Wrote: And another thing Duckglomerate........Since it has been revealed that a new tenant of 'capitalism' is a successful business is not made by:
1) Working harder than others
2) Preparing yourself to be smarter than others
3) Entrepreneurs don't build businesses, everyone else does.
I sure hope Phil, Collin and Dave all give us here on the MB the credit we deserve as obviously we took a business with zero and turned it into a 3.8 Billion dollar one. Our further efforts should yield a 12-40 Billion enterprise before long!!
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - Tree - 07-19-2012
"It could be that Duma simply got tired of waiting for the financing to emerge and intervened."
Could be I guess, STP. I can't believe it though. Kinda odd I think that first Potape, then Duma, would go nuclear and threaten/claim project cancellation beginning in July 2011 if they were 'just tired of waiting'. With so much change of heart by PNG powers in just a few months, the logical conclusion is Project Zebra was real and Shell was behind it as accused. Subsequent comments by PNG pols affirm there was obstruction by DPE.
Timeline revisit:
Duma/Somare were toasting the EWC JVOA which expanded to 3mtpa LNG in Feb 2011, as IOC was lining up FLEX. Which in Apr. 2011 FLEX agreed to join, and that FLNG was backed and guaranteed to perform by SHI. That's as good as a FLNG deal gets. Mitsui was in with a 5% E/A option, that's worth what.....a Billion$? That's about the time Somare gone missing with sad heart in Singapore and Project Zebra was said to have been implemented. Noble OT came July 4ish 2011 and Japs needed contracts in a post nuke JP. Sure looks like IOC was on the way to pulling off financing and OT sales for the project. Just doing the cash flow math from the 2 royalty deals with EWC/FLEX is astounding. Plenty of $ to attract financiers or partners if needed. After all E/A will produce 100's of Billions of LNG sales ALONE. That revenue is ample motive for an attempt to steal IOC's project by Shell.
Just seems too simple that an absent Somare coincided with all the allegations and change of heart.
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - Palm - 07-19-2012
I'm thinking that the only financing Duma had on his mind was how he was going to finance his next condo in Cairns. When Duma got his dander up it was about having a major involved as a partner, an established operator on board and the agreed upon startup volume. Then there was also the fully integrated project requirement and proven technology wording per the PA. Thing is none of this was new and it was for the most part assumed by Ubers that JAPEX would be involved as a partner. Just by sheer coincidence right when Shell decided to move back in to "help" Petromin become what all dreamers had hoped, all of a sudden "someone" pulled out the PA and started to point out where IOC was "suddenly" deviating from it. Forget that Duma and the rest had in effect approved all of IOC's deviations. Suddenly the light went on and these guys all remembered the original PA and how it was all black and white. I can see Duma after chancing to review the agreement; Yikes, this isn't what they are doing. The Gulf? Who said anything about The Gulf? No sir, can't have that.
99.9% of these guys (including Sir Michael) make decisions based in their own "treasury" first, then the good of PNG secondly; a distant 2nd.
To consider Duma's actions as anything other than what he had to do to finance a new condo is just a little naive. Why else do bonk and others want so badly for a Duma or Potape to be appointed as the next DPE Minister? It's not so financing can be required for IOC's project. It's for the Bank of Shell to be able to do the financing.
(07-19-2012, 09:11 AM)Tree Wrote: "It could be that Duma simply got tired of waiting for the financing to emerge and intervened."
Could be I guess, STP. I can't believe it though. Kinda odd I think that first Potape, then Duma, would go nuclear and threaten/claim project cancellation beginning in July 2011 if they were 'just tired of waiting'. With so much change of heart by PNG powers in just a few months, the logical conclusion is Project Zebra was real and Shell was behind it as accused. Subsequent comments by PNG pols affirm there was obstruction by DPE.
Timeline revisit:
Duma/Somare were toasting the EWC JVOA which expanded to 3mtpa LNG in Feb 2011, as IOC was lining up FLEX. Which in Apr. 2011 FLEX agreed to join, and that FLNG was backed and guaranteed to perform by SHI. That's as good as a FLNG deal gets. Mitsui was in with a 5% E/A option, that's worth what.....a Billion$? That's about the time Somare gone missing with sad heart in Singapore and Project Zebra was said to have been implemented. Noble OT came July 4ish 2011 and Japs needed contracts in a post nuke JP. Sure looks like IOC was on the way to pulling off financing and OT sales for the project. Just doing the cash flow math from the 2 royalty deals with EWC/FLEX is astounding. Plenty of $ to attract financiers or partners if needed. After all E/A will produce 100's of Billions of LNG sales ALONE. That revenue is ample motive for an attempt to steal IOC's project by Shell.
Just seems too simple that an absent Somare coincided with all the allegations and change of heart.
RE: Thanks Uberville Residents - Tusker - 07-19-2012
(07-18-2012, 10:36 PM)Tree Wrote: Anyone else remember when IOC was in the 40s/50s, quite a few geniuses's (they know who they are) predicting IOC would not see $70 again, even after SDs? Using pps as evidence, they took credit for being 'right' all along that IOC management sucked and they assigned more power to Duma than he wielded. Reality is, IOC story was postponed 1.5 yr due to an ill Somare and a bribing Shell. Fluctuating pps and artificial low pps this year in particular have been a boon to traders and accumulators. If Somare remained healthy, IOC is a year into construction today. The delay allowed T-2 and a tripling of prl15 bids, not a bad outcome for a delay out of management's hands. That's how you turn iron into gold.
Thanks to Uberville neighbors for providing information and insight which has been reality based. Whiners may be right, we may never see $70 again, just not how they meant.
I recall a observation from Henry that it would be two years from discovery to FID. We left the horizontal at E/A under that time period. Toot Toot.